As of this morning, GIFT Nifty is trading around 24,644, down by nearly 40 points, indicating a soft start to the day. But global developments are more significant, with renewed 25% tariff discussions and ongoing geopolitical tensions weighing on sentiment.

Global Market Snapshot:

• US markets closed higher overnight
• Nikkei rallied over 2.16%, up nearly 900 points
• Jakarta and Taiwan also opened strong
• Hang Seng bucked the trend, down 0.86%
• Brent Crude remains under pressure, trading near $67.5
• Gold continues to show strength, currently at $3,381
• Dollar Index is near 98; USDINR testing 88.00

Institutional Flow:

• FIIs were net sellers again, offloading ₹4,997 crore→ August net outflow now at ₹15,951 crore
• DIIs bought ₹10,864 crore worth of equities→ Monthly net buying by DIIs now at ₹29,070 crore

Earnings to Watch Today (234 Companies):

• State Bank of India
• Tata Motors
• Grasim
• Siemens
• Voltas

Expect significant stock-specific moves based on earnings announcements.

Derivatives Positioning:

Clients:

• Net long 4.43 lakh option contracts→ 67,000 long calls→ 3.76 lakh short puts
• Net long 1.19 lakh contracts in futures

Pros:

• Net short by 1.3 lakh contracts→ 21,000 short calls→ 1.08 lakh long puts
• Minor long exposure on futures (18,000 contracts)

Volatility & Implied Range:

• Weekly IVs remain suppressed at 9.74
• Synthetic Futures (14th August expiry): 24,672
• 24,650 straddle priced at ₹269, implies:→ Upside: ~24,980→ Downside: ~24,430

Realized volatility continues to outpace implied, supporting long gamma strategies—buying near-dated straddles and selling back-dated ones can offer favorable setups.

TK ALGO Signal:

• Buy signal on both fast and slow variants
• Mean reversion target remains: 25,000

Sectoral View:

• Strength: Auto, Metals, IT, Finance
• Neutral: Most indices
• Weakness: Pharma, Realty, Smallcap – best avoided for long trades

Commodity Check:

• Crude Oil: ₹5,696 (MCX) – Sell zone
• Natural Gas: ₹272 – Buy zone
• Bitcoin: ₹1,11,123 – Strong momentum
• USDINR testing the 88 level; a breach could lead to broader market pullbacks

Key Technical Levels:

• Resistance: 24,700 → Breakout here could trigger a sharp rally to 25,000
• Support: 24,350 → Formed after Thursday’s sharp bounce
• Watch levels:→ Below 24,520: Exit long positions→ Above 24,640: Fresh longs can be initiated→ Sustained breakout above 24,700 = potential rally to 25,000

Suggested Strategy:

Long Gamma remains the preferred approach, especially with low IVs and expanding realized moves. Consider broken wing butterflies or short calendars around 24,900–25,000.

This was Tanmay Kurtkoti, founder of QCAlpha, and you’re listening to Trade Setup with Tanmay — your 5-minute pre-market audio podcast before the chaos begins.