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EP26: Nifty Steadies Near 25,000, Range Trade Likely Sensex Expiry Watch & Sector Cues | 19th August, Tuesday
EP26: Nifty Steadies Near 25,000, Range Trade Likely — Expiry Watch & Sector Cues | 19th August, Tuesday
- Global Cues:
- US markets rallied overnight.
- Asian markets mostly weak: Hang Seng (-0.3%), Taiwan (-0.58%), Kospi (-0.5%), Nikkei (-0.1%).
- Brent crude slipped below $67, trading at $66.28.
- Dollar Index at 98.20, USDINR testing resistance at 87.50–87.75.
- Institutional Flows:
- FIIs finally turned buyers, +₹550 crore.
- DIIs bought ₹4,103 crore.
- MTD: FIIs net sold ₹23,740 crore, DIIs net bought ₹59,899 crore.
- Derivatives Positioning:
- Clients: Net long ~5.54 lakh shares (92k long calls, 4.32 lakh short puts, 1.15 lakh futures long).
- Pros: Net short, continuing defensive stance.
- Volatility & Range:
- IVs at 11.09 (21st Aug expiry).
- 24,950 straddle ~₹211, implying range: 24,700 – 25,200.
- Expect consolidation in the morning; possible breakout in second half.
- Sectors to Watch:
- Strength: Pharma, Metals, Capital Markets, Smallcap turnaround.
- Weak: IT, select Financials.
- Commodities:
- Gold ~₹99801 (neutral).
- Silver firm.
- Crude weak.
- Game Plan:
- Expiry day for Sensex contracts — expect volatility.
- Short options early on spike; watch for breakout later.
- Buy dips near 24,800–24,850 with upside target of 25,200.
It’s Tuesday, 19th August, and markets open steady near the 25,000 mark. Global cues are mixed — US markets rallied, but Asian indices are largely in the red, and Brent crude slipped below $67. On the domestic front, FIIs finally turned buyers (+₹550 cr), while DIIs added another ₹4,103 cr, continuing their strong monthly inflows.
On the derivatives side, clients remain heavily long with over 5.5 lakh shares in net exposure, while pros continue to stay short. Weekly IVs are at 11.09 with a 24,950 straddle pricing in a 24,700–25,200 trading range. Expect a volatile morning, but keep an eye on a possible breakout in the second half.
Sector rotation is clear — Pharma, Metals, Capital Markets, and Smallcaps are leading strength, while IT and select Financials are lagging. In commodities, gold is neutral to sell and silver remain firm, while crude continues to weaken. USDINR is testing resistance around 87.50–87.75, while the Dollar Index holds steady near 98.20.
Today’s trade plan:
- Use dips towards 24,800–24,850 to build longs.
- Watch for upside levels near 25,200 if 25k holds.
- Expiry in Sensex contracts today — expect intra-day volatility.
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By Tanmay KurtkotiEP26: Nifty Steadies Near 25,000, Range Trade Likely — Expiry Watch & Sector Cues | 19th August, Tuesday
- Global Cues:
- US markets rallied overnight.
- Asian markets mostly weak: Hang Seng (-0.3%), Taiwan (-0.58%), Kospi (-0.5%), Nikkei (-0.1%).
- Brent crude slipped below $67, trading at $66.28.
- Dollar Index at 98.20, USDINR testing resistance at 87.50–87.75.
- Institutional Flows:
- FIIs finally turned buyers, +₹550 crore.
- DIIs bought ₹4,103 crore.
- MTD: FIIs net sold ₹23,740 crore, DIIs net bought ₹59,899 crore.
- Derivatives Positioning:
- Clients: Net long ~5.54 lakh shares (92k long calls, 4.32 lakh short puts, 1.15 lakh futures long).
- Pros: Net short, continuing defensive stance.
- Volatility & Range:
- IVs at 11.09 (21st Aug expiry).
- 24,950 straddle ~₹211, implying range: 24,700 – 25,200.
- Expect consolidation in the morning; possible breakout in second half.
- Sectors to Watch:
- Strength: Pharma, Metals, Capital Markets, Smallcap turnaround.
- Weak: IT, select Financials.
- Commodities:
- Gold ~₹99801 (neutral).
- Silver firm.
- Crude weak.
- Game Plan:
- Expiry day for Sensex contracts — expect volatility.
- Short options early on spike; watch for breakout later.
- Buy dips near 24,800–24,850 with upside target of 25,200.
It’s Tuesday, 19th August, and markets open steady near the 25,000 mark. Global cues are mixed — US markets rallied, but Asian indices are largely in the red, and Brent crude slipped below $67. On the domestic front, FIIs finally turned buyers (+₹550 cr), while DIIs added another ₹4,103 cr, continuing their strong monthly inflows.
On the derivatives side, clients remain heavily long with over 5.5 lakh shares in net exposure, while pros continue to stay short. Weekly IVs are at 11.09 with a 24,950 straddle pricing in a 24,700–25,200 trading range. Expect a volatile morning, but keep an eye on a possible breakout in the second half.
Sector rotation is clear — Pharma, Metals, Capital Markets, and Smallcaps are leading strength, while IT and select Financials are lagging. In commodities, gold is neutral to sell and silver remain firm, while crude continues to weaken. USDINR is testing resistance around 87.50–87.75, while the Dollar Index holds steady near 98.20.
Today’s trade plan:
- Use dips towards 24,800–24,850 to build longs.
- Watch for upside levels near 25,200 if 25k holds.
- Expiry in Sensex contracts today — expect intra-day volatility.