Ep. 13 — Oil Shock, Ceasefire Trade Collide

Oil's supply math says "billion-barrel hole," headlines say "ceasefire" — and the market is trying to price both at once. Gold whipsaws, bonds sniff a sticky inflation floor, and tech splits between non-optional AI plumbing and consumer squeeze. Plus: Tim Cook steps aside, John Ternus takes Apple’s wheel, and VW pushes edge AI into cars.

Today's stories:

• Intro: Markets cheer a ceasefire while oil’s supply shock refuses to vanish; gold snaps back; tech splits.
• The Tape: Oil rips, then slips; gold bounces; small caps and utilities drag; yields grind up; AMD/MSFT bid vs. Apple/Google offered.
• The Footnotes: Vitol’s billion-barrel hole, Iranian tankers rerouting, Ukraine restarting a Russian pipeline, and BHP locks iron ore prices with China.
• Nerd Corner: Edge AI in cars (VW) vs. cloud AI; Apple’s Ternus era signals device-first strategy; where AI dollars actually land.
• The Calls: Three fresh predictions on semis, the 10-year, and WTI — with clear invalidations.

The Calls:

• Tom: Semiconductor ETF closes up at least 2% by Friday. Invalidation: crude closes below $75.
• Ray: 10-year yield closes the week above 4.35%. Invalidation: PCE prints cool enough to let the Fed breathe.
• Alex: WTI crude closes above $82 by week’s end. Invalidation: WTI closes below $78 by Friday.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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