Three Clowns

Ep. 25 — AI Platforms Hold, Everything Else Sinks

Mega-cap AI is still wearing the crown while small caps, memes, and the frothy AI sidecars get tossed overboard. Oil pops on headlines, energy stocks sink on ESG, and Whirlpool waves a recession flag for the consumer—right as the 10-year creeps higher. We sort the noise from the structural.

Today's stories:

• Intro — Futures shrug oil; why only the platform layer is holding up the tape.
• The Tape — Breadth rolls over; small caps crack; energy equities decouple from crude; risk comes off across AI beta, memes, and crypto.
• The Footnotes — ESG pressure on TotalEnergies, Sherritt exits Cuba, Malaysian bonds hit records with foreign central banks, Apollo moves to daily marks.
• The Nerd Corner — Platform vs derivative AI, nuclear PPAs as rate shields, and the IMF’s concentration risk warning.
• The Calls — We put numbers on QQQ, NVDA, and the 10-year.

The Calls:

• Tom: Nvidia closes ~1.5% lower (around $210); wrong if it reclaims $216 and holds.
• Ray: 10-year yield finishes above 4.41%; wrong if it slips below 4.35%.
• Alex: QQQ closes below 698; wrong if a late-day bid takes out the open.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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Produced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 24 — Oil Craters on Iran Truce Rumors

Oil gets smoked on Iran truce chatter, AI chips rip on AMD’s blowout, and metals scream as yields slide — which is not the risk-on party you think it is. The Clowns untangle why gold up + stocks up means the dollar’s losing its grip, and where Nvidia’s margin story meets its expiration date.

Today's stories:

• The Tape — Oil dumps on an unsigned Iran MOU while US fuel exports hit records; AMD’s beat lifts the whole AI complex; metals rally alongside equities.
• The Footnotes — Gold loves lower real yields; Greece’s court win and the danger of local-law debt; private credit as UK property’s shadow bank; EU methane rules meet energy security.
• The Nerd Corner — AMD as credible second supplier caps Nvidia’s pricing power; rates as the AI ceiling; UK probes card fees and the unbundling risk for Visa/Mastercard/PayPal.

The Calls:

• Tom: AMD closes red, gives back about 5% from the open.
• Ray: Gold ETF finishes up at least 1% today (watch the 10-year at 4.4%).
• Alex: S&P ETF closes flat to slightly up.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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Produced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 23 — AMD Rips, Oil Crashes, Gold Pops

AMD blows the doors off with a monster data center print, oil craters on Iran de-escalation chatter, and gold rips alongside stocks — the market's "permission trade" is on. But banks won't confirm the party, and Friday's jobs data could nuke the whole thesis.

Today's stories:

• Intro: A whipsaw open — AMD crushes, oil tanks, gold pops, and the Fed gets “cover.”
• The Tape: Crude dives while energy equities shrug, small caps pop, banks flatline, and gold rallies with stocks.
• The Footnotes: Reserves plunge, Hormuz workarounds are costly PR, inflation hedges reload, private credit buys at 65¢, SEC eyes killing quarterlies, Canadian miner halted.
• The Nerd Corner: The railroad analogy for AI capex — real demand, murky ROI, and leverage hiding in nicer drawers.
• The Calls: Small caps fade, AMD fills the gap, and the 10-year slips under 4.38%.

The Calls:

• Tom: AMD opens near 420 and closes below 400 — gap gets sold.
• Ray: 10-year yield finishes below 4.38% as oil’s collapse eases inflation pressure.
• Alex: Russell ETF closes up less than 0.5% — small caps fade the morning pop.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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Produced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 22 — Oil Spikes, Gold Sinks

Shots near Hormuz sent oil ripping above $90 while gold — the classic war hedge — dumped as real yields jumped. Mega-cap AI barely blinked, cyclicals got smoked, crypto caught the fear bid, and the long bond flashed 5% — so which future is the market actually pricing?

Today's stories:

• Intro: Geopolitics vs. markets — oil up, gold down, tech shrugs.
• The Tape: Oil >$90, AMD -5.3% while Nvidia flat, gold sells off as Bitcoin breaks $80k; Blackstone/Goldman’s $1.5B Anthropic JV; GameStop’s eBay dream deflated.
• The Footnotes: Real yields rip, 30-year tags 5.025%; bear steepener and the Fed trap into Goolsbee and jobs.
• The Nerd Corner: AI capex gets underwritten like a utility; Nvidia’s moat vs. AMD’s duration problem; late-cycle gold M&A; defense execution risk; crypto governance drama.
• The Calls: Rates, QQQ, and oil — who’s brave, who’s early, who’s wrong.

The Calls:

• Tom: QQQ closes red — below 670. Wrong if QQQ holds a 3pm print above 675 into the close.
• Ray: Oil ETF closes above 149. Wrong if it closes below 147.50.
• Alex: 10-year yield closes below 4.35%. Wrong if we close above 4.45%.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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Produced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 21 — GameStop wants to buy eBay

Apple yanked the Nasdaq higher while energy cratered, and speculative beta went full gremlin. Then the weekend dropped a jaw-dropper: GameStop floating a $56B swing at eBay. Big macro week ahead with ISM Services and Friday’s jobs report lining up to punch or prop those rate-cut dreams.

Today's stories:

• Intro: Split tape, Apple levitates, meme merger shocker.
• The Tape: Apple does all the heavy lifting; energy pukes on "de-escalation"; beta sprays into silver/Bitcoin.
• The Footnotes: Sticky PCE, ISM Prices Paid on deck, Fed boxed in; travel sentiment dinged by a cruise-ship hantavirus headline.
• The Nerd Corner: AI’s real bottleneck is power — flow batteries, nuclear/PPAs, and why electrons aren’t priced in.
• The Calls: Scoreboard carnage and three fresh takes for today’s close.

The Calls:

• Tom: Apple closes red, down ~1%.
• Ray: Silver ETF finishes up at least 2%.
• Alex: 20-year Treasury yield closes up ≥15 bps from the open.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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Produced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 20 — AI Receipts: Google Delivers, Meta Stumbles

The market finally asked AI to show the receipts. Google delivered hard cash, Meta got punished for promising spend without payback, and Microsoft learned that even triple-digit AI growth has a bar. Plus: oil whipsaws while energy stocks rally, and the yen move lights up gold.

Today's stories:

• Intro: “Evidence of dissatisfaction,” AI patience runs out, and why the market wants cash now, not vibes later.
• The Tape: AI fractures into winners and waitlists; Google prints, Meta stalls; AMD vs. Nvidia risk repricing; energy stocks rise even as crude fades; Apple pre-market pop.
• The Footnotes: Yen intervention boosts gold, Starwood freezes redemptions, private credit flexes with SpaceX, Petrobras output hits records.
• The Nerd Corner: AI only “works” when it hits your customer’s opex—why usage-based cloud revenue is the real ROI signal.
• The Calls: Scorecard, then fresh bets on QQQs, energy, and small caps.

The Calls:

• Tom: QQQs close ~1% red today.
• Ray: Energy ETF finishes up at least 1%.
• Alex: Russell 2000 closes down at least 1.2%.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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Produced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 19 — Meta Tanks, Google Pops, Oil Soars

Meta gets smoked while Alphabet rips, oil hangs over $120 with the UAE walking out of OPEC, and a hot data dump hits at 8:30. Add a REIT redemption freeze and falling gold, and you've got markets trying to price earnings shocks, inflation signals, and a supply crunch all before lunch.

Today's stories:

• Intro — Meta vs. Google split, oil at $120, data tsunami, and a REIT freeze set the table.
• The Tape — Intent ads beat interruption ads; energy and infrastructure bid while gold fades and crypto bleeds.
• The Footnotes — UAE’s OPEC exit rewires energy, France’s timing is comic, gold vs. real yields, and REITs bifurcate.
• The Nerd Corner — Meta’s AI spend is defensive, Google’s is offensive; nuclear PPAs change rate sensitivity; Nvidia is the tell.

The Calls:

• Tom: Nvidia closes red, down at least 2%.
• Ray: Gold ETF finishes up at least 2%.
• Alex: Meta closes down at least 3%.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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Produced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 18 — Powell Holds Or Blinks?

FOMC day with oil back above $110 after the UAE walked from OPEC, AI hardware wobbling as yields tick up, and gold somehow slipping into the penalty box. Powell either holds the line or blinks — and that call ripples through everything from QQQs to REITs.

Today's stories:

• Oil tops $110 as UAE exits OPEC — supply uncertainty over squeeze
• AI and big tech selloff: ROI doubts meet higher discount rates
• Gold down despite geopolitics — real yields win the argument
• REITs rally while yields rise: market pricing “contained,” not crisis
• Jamie Dimon’s bond-crisis warning vs market resilience
• China’s yuan faces summer dividend repatriation test
• M&A pulse: Pepsi to buy oOh!Media; RAC pulls London IPO; Vale misses on costs

The Calls:

• Tom: Ten-year closes above 4.40%.
• Ray: Gold ETF closes flat to down at least 1%.
• Alex: QQQs close red by at least 0.5%.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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Produced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 17 — Higher Yields, AI Split Widens

Yields are pressing the market, oil is acting like a tax, and the AI trade is finally picking favorites. Nvidia holds the cash-flow crown while AMD eats the punishment, banks catch a bid, and defensives get dunked — all as Powell’s (maybe) last presser looms and Warsh-watch heats up.

Today's stories:

• The Tape: Nvidia vs. AMD split, banks up/defensives down, oil rips as a hedge while energy equities lag, crypto trades like high-beta duration.
• The Footnotes: Dalio warns on Kevin Warsh, consumer confidence at 10am, Japanese insurers step back from JGBs — a structural push toward higher-for-longer.
• The Nerd Corner: Inference economics, CUDA lock-in, rising power costs, nuclear PPAs, and why battery supply chains (hello, Congo cobalt) now set the multiple.

The Calls:

• Tom: QQQs close red, about -1% (he’s wrong if Powell nudges yields under 4.20%).
• Ray: 10-year finishes above 4.35% (he’s wrong if the Fed highlights clear labor cooling).
• Alex: AMD closes above $320 (he’s wrong if Nvidia guides down AI server pricing and drags chips).

New episode every weekday before US market open.
Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | X

Produced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 16 — AI Boom Runs Into Fed Week

Intel and Meta just poured fresh fuel on the AI fire, sending semis flying — but Brent back above $107 and Powell's last meeting this week are about to test that euphoria. We break down a narrow tape crowding into chips while the rest of the market tiptoes around rates, oil, and dollar plumbing. Who blinks first: AI capex or the 10-year?

Today's stories:

• Intro: AI rally vs. rates and $107 oil — setting up a collision course ahead of the FOMC.
• The Tape: Mega-cap AI leads while cyclicals, small caps, and healthcare lag — how narrow is too narrow?
• The Footnotes: Hormuz still shut, Brent >$107, Gulf dollar-funding stress, and what that means for the Fed.
• The Nerd Corner: Hyperscalers, multiples vs. the 10-year, nuclear PPAs, and where the AI story could crack first.
• The Calls: Three fearless (or foolish) predictions headed into a stacked week.

The Calls:

• Tom: QQQ closes red (~-0.75%). Wrong if the 10-year drops back under 4.25%.
• Ray: 10-year finishes above 4.35%. Wrong if Dallas Fed data craters and triggers a safety bid.
• Alex: Nvidia closes green (≥ +0.5%). Wrong if NVDA finishes red.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | X

Produced using AI-generated voices.