Ep. 17 — Higher Yields, AI Split Widens

Yields are pressing the market, oil is acting like a tax, and the AI trade is finally picking favorites. Nvidia holds the cash-flow crown while AMD eats the punishment, banks catch a bid, and defensives get dunked — all as Powell’s (maybe) last presser looms and Warsh-watch heats up.

Today's stories:

• The Tape: Nvidia vs. AMD split, banks up/defensives down, oil rips as a hedge while energy equities lag, crypto trades like high-beta duration.
• The Footnotes: Dalio warns on Kevin Warsh, consumer confidence at 10am, Japanese insurers step back from JGBs — a structural push toward higher-for-longer.
• The Nerd Corner: Inference economics, CUDA lock-in, rising power costs, nuclear PPAs, and why battery supply chains (hello, Congo cobalt) now set the multiple.

The Calls:

• Tom: QQQs close red, about -1% (he’s wrong if Powell nudges yields under 4.20%).
• Ray: 10-year finishes above 4.35% (he’s wrong if the Fed highlights clear labor cooling).
• Alex: AMD closes above $320 (he’s wrong if Nvidia guides down AI server pricing and drags chips).

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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Produced using AI-generated voices.