Ep. 22 — Oil Spikes, Gold Sinks

Shots near Hormuz sent oil ripping above $90 while gold — the classic war hedge — dumped as real yields jumped. Mega-cap AI barely blinked, cyclicals got smoked, crypto caught the fear bid, and the long bond flashed 5% — so which future is the market actually pricing?

Today's stories:

• Intro: Geopolitics vs. markets — oil up, gold down, tech shrugs.
• The Tape: Oil >$90, AMD -5.3% while Nvidia flat, gold sells off as Bitcoin breaks $80k; Blackstone/Goldman’s $1.5B Anthropic JV; GameStop’s eBay dream deflated.
• The Footnotes: Real yields rip, 30-year tags 5.025%; bear steepener and the Fed trap into Goolsbee and jobs.
• The Nerd Corner: AI capex gets underwritten like a utility; Nvidia’s moat vs. AMD’s duration problem; late-cycle gold M&A; defense execution risk; crypto governance drama.
• The Calls: Rates, QQQ, and oil — who’s brave, who’s early, who’s wrong.

The Calls:

• Tom: QQQ closes red — below 670. Wrong if QQQ holds a 3pm print above 675 into the close.
• Ray: Oil ETF closes above 149. Wrong if it closes below 147.50.
• Alex: 10-year yield closes below 4.35%. Wrong if we close above 4.45%.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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Produced using AI-generated voices.