Ep. 5 — CPI Hits As Oil Surges

CPI lands before the bell while oil keeps grinding higher — not just on headlines but on real capacity damage and a tanker-fee threat. Amazon ripped 5.5% on no news, energy stocks fell even as crude climbed, and gold tapped 440 then flinched. Did the market just buy the right story a day early?

Today's stories:

• The Tape: AMZN rips on duration, oil up while XLE sinks, BTC up/COIN down
• The Footnotes: Gold taps 440 and backs off; tanker-fee threat; Saudi capacity hit
• The Nerd Corner: Why oil up and energy equities down signal a supply shock — and what the curve is saying about multiples
• The Calls: NVDA levels on hot/cool CPI, 10-year next week, and AMZN as a duration proxy

The Calls:

• Tom: If CPI is hot, NVDA trades 168 by today’s close; if CPI is cool, 192 by Friday (nothing print = 178–186 chop).
• Ray: 10-year at 4.42% by next Friday as structural inflation outweighs quick-cut hopes.
• Alex: AMZN below 228 by Friday close if CPI beats the Cleveland Fed nowcast (4.4% headline, 2.6% core).

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Ep. 4 — Oil Crashes, AI Rallies, PCE Ahead

Everything ripped after oil cratered 9% and the market chose the rosiest possible read of the Fed minutes. This morning oil’s bouncing, futures are softer, and core PCE hits at 8:30 — does Goldilocks survive? Also: gold refused to flinch while crypto popped and COIN yawned.

Today's stories:

• The Tape — A buy-everything day: oil nuked, AI led, TSLA lagged; crypto up while COIN hesitated.
• The Footnotes — Oil’s bounce screams positioning, not regime shift; the Fed minutes fine print wasn’t so dovish; gold holds firm; SEC eyes pre-war headline trades; Dalio says Trump–Xi is about capital flows, not soybeans.
• The Nerd Corner — Why 5 bps in the 10-year can swing META 6.5%: discount rates, operating leverage, and the cost of capital dressed up as an AI revolution.
• The Calls — Rate-sensitive trades on the line before PCE/CPI: NVDA, QQQ, and the 10-year.

The Calls:

• Tom: If core PCE and CPI both print even 0.1 hot, NVDA finishes the week under 165.
• Ray: The 10-year ends the week above 4.45% — services/shelter won’t let CPI play nice.
• Alex: If core PCE is hot today, QQQ gives back more than half of yesterday’s gains by the close.

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Ep. 3 — Hormuz Reopens: Oil -11%, Futures Rip

Ceasefire headlines slam oil -11% and light a fire under futures — but bonds aren't buying the euphoria. Gold holds its bid, Apple's red in a +3% tape, and the FOMC minutes loom at 2 PM.

Today's stories:

• The Tape: consumer pain vs tech hideout; energy and gold diverge; crypto trades liquidity not macro
• The Footnotes: FOMC minutes setup — why 4.34% on the 10Y says "I don't believe you"
• Nerd Corner: oil is a headline, AI is a contract — PPAs, renewal risk, and nuclear as the baseload hedge

The Calls:

• Tom: AAPL finishes red today even if QQQ stays above +2% — rotation, not a glitch
• Ray: Europe outperforms the S&P by 1+ pt by Friday — energy relief and record shorts
• Alex: Gold holds above 440 through Friday's CPI — structural shift signal

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Ep. 2 — Oil Squeeze, AI Bets, and CPI Friday

Three oil supply shocks in one session — Saudi premiums, Ukraine drones, Hormuz — and equities just shrugged. Alex, Tom, and Ray break down the bet the market is making: AI-driven productivity outruns rising energy costs, at least until CPI says otherwise.

Today's stories:

• Three oil shocks, stocks still green — sequencing or denial?
• Banks rally on fatter NIMs; Dimon's private credit warning
• Crypto rips, gold yawns — fear vs liquidity in one session
• Nerd Corner: what Dimon actually said about AI timelines and the private credit bridge

The Calls:

• Tom: NVDA down 8–10% if CPI runs hot — belief stays, discount rate bites
• Ray: 10Y rips through 4.5% after the data — no-landing = inflation rebound
• Alex: Gold catches the oil move by Friday close — if it doesn't, the hedging playbook is broken

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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Ep. 1 — Oil Rips, Tesla Cracks, CPI Looms

Oil spikes 11%, Tesla falls 5.5%, gold dumps — all on a "flat" SPY day. Alex, Tom, and Ray unpack the split-screen market: AI and chips hold firm while energy and growth names diverge, with CPI and FOMC minutes looming.

Today's stories:

• Oil +11%: why chips held and gold sold off — real yield signal
• Tesla delivery miss, margins, and the $350 level everyone's watching
• REITs/Utilities bid on higher-for-longer; 10Y at 4.35% as floor vs ceiling
• Nerd Corner: AMD MI300X buzz, sovereign AI demand, and Nvidia still king

The Calls:

• Tom: If AMD adds to last week's gains and NVDA pushes premarket, the AI bid is real
• Ray: Core CPI at 0.4% m/m = summer cut narrative dead
• Alex: 10Y walking toward 4.50% after FOMC minutes tests "AI is immune to rates"

New episode every weekday before US market open.
Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | X

Produced using AI-generated voices.

Meet Alex, Tom, and Ray — three old friends who talk markets before the US opening bell every morning. This is episode zero: who we are, what we do, and why we started.

This episode was produced using AI-generated voices.