Ep. 7 — PPI Decides Risk-On or Hedge

Risk-on party, gold buying insurance. Today’s PPI is the arbiter: does the rally get confirmed, or do the hedges win and the tape flips? We unpack Monday’s backwards market and what a hot vs. cool print means for AI, energy, small caps, and the 10-year.

Today's stories:

• The Tape — Small caps beat megacap, energy lags despite oil, gold up on a "risk-on" day.
• The Footnotes — Core PPI as the tell; oil/ships/insurance stickiness; private credit relief; EM stress and the 10Y stuck at 4.30%.
• The Nerd Corner — The rate–AI trade, 4.45% as the cliff, MSFT vs AAPL sensitivity, BTC as the liquidity canary.

The Calls:

• Tom: If PPI prints hot, NQ gives back at least half its pre-market gains by the close.
• Ray: 10-year at 4.42% by Friday (episode 5 call stays on).
• Alex: QQQ closes the week above 625 — AI bid buys the dip.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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