Ep. 9 — AI Rally Ignores Rising Yields

Geopolitics vanished from the screen in 48 hours and the market ran straight back into AI — even as the 10-year refuses to drift lower. Tech ripped, industrials slumped, and gold's "all-clear" unwind didn't stick. We dig into whether this AI productivity story is real earnings or just a rate bet in new clothes.

Today's stories:

• The Tape — AI-led tech pop while the 10-year creeps higher; gold and oil snap back pre-market; banks print on trading as industrials lag.
• The Footnotes — Crypto proxies surge on vibes; airline mega-merger chatter as a distress signal; private credit’s “volatility dampening” and the appraisal-to-exit gap.
• The Nerd Corner — 25% of the S&P can now quantify AI benefits — why the equity math still lives and dies by the discount rate.
• The Calls — Scoreboard on rates, NVDA, QQQs, and a very narrow 10-year range getting tested.

The Calls:

• Tom: Needs the 10-year to back up ~7 bps and Nvidia to drop 6–7% — theory intact, market uncooperative.
• Ray: Ep. 8 call for 4.15% is drifting the wrong way; legacy 4.42% from Ep. 5 still out there — two stories, neither hitting today.
• Alex: QQQ $625 by Friday looks comfy at $639; but his 10-year 4.22–4.28 range is already flirting with the ceiling.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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Produced using AI-generated voices.