Ep. 16 — AI Boom Runs Into Fed Week

Intel and Meta just poured fresh fuel on the AI fire, sending semis flying — but Brent back above $107 and Powell's last meeting this week are about to test that euphoria. We break down a narrow tape crowding into chips while the rest of the market tiptoes around rates, oil, and dollar plumbing. Who blinks first: AI capex or the 10-year?

Today's stories:

• Intro: AI rally vs. rates and $107 oil — setting up a collision course ahead of the FOMC.
• The Tape: Mega-cap AI leads while cyclicals, small caps, and healthcare lag — how narrow is too narrow?
• The Footnotes: Hormuz still shut, Brent >$107, Gulf dollar-funding stress, and what that means for the Fed.
• The Nerd Corner: Hyperscalers, multiples vs. the 10-year, nuclear PPAs, and where the AI story could crack first.
• The Calls: Three fearless (or foolish) predictions headed into a stacked week.

The Calls:

• Tom: QQQ closes red (~-0.75%). Wrong if the 10-year drops back under 4.25%.
• Ray: 10-year finishes above 4.35%. Wrong if Dallas Fed data craters and triggers a safety bid.
• Alex: Nvidia closes green (≥ +0.5%). Wrong if NVDA finishes red.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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