Welcome to EP14 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.

The week begins flat with Gift Nifty at 24,839, but sentiment remains fragile. FIIs continue to sell, earnings are heavy, and key support levels are being tested.

🌍 Global Cues:

• Dow Futures: +183 pts at 45,083
• S&P 500 & Nasdaq: Closed higher on Friday
• Europe: Mixed
• Asia:
• Crude: $69
• Gold: $3,332 (↓0.15%)
• Dollar Index: 97.64
• USDINR: 86.52

📊 FII/DII Activity (Friday):

• FIIs: Sold ₹1,979 Cr
• DIIs: Bought ₹2,138 Cr
• MTD Net:
  • FIIs: -₹30,508 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹39,825 Cr

💼 Earnings Today (86+ Companies):

Key names: Indian Bank, Nestle, Adani Trans, Canara Bank, AFL, Emphasis, and more.

⚙️ Market Structure & Volatility:

• Nifty: Still in sell mode on TK Algo
• Only Pharma showing relative strength
• Weakness across: Smallcap, Realty, Capital Markets, Midcap, FMCG, Infra, CPSC

IVs remain compressed:

• 31 Jul: 9.12
• 7 Aug: 9.86
• Aug Expiry: 10.31

ATM Straddle (31 Jul @ 24,850): ₹238

• Range Projection:
  • Downside: 24,600
  • Upside: 25,050

  📈 Client vs Pro Positioning:

Clients:

• Long Futures: 1.16 lakh
• Call Longs: 66,000
• Put Shorts: 4.75 lakh
• Net Long Exposure: 5.41 lakh contracts → strong bullish bias

Pros:

• Long Futures: 17,000
• Call Shorts: 39,000
• Put Longs: 2.26 lakh
• Net Bearish Bias: 2.65 lakh contracts

Interpretation:

• Clients are still aggressively long
• Pros are positioned for a downside trap
• Early move could shake out over-leveraged long trades

🔑 Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 24,960 → 25,085
• Support Zones: 24,785 → 24,720
• Plan: Avoid long entries at open
  • Wait for weakness to play out
  • Consider bounce trades only near support

🪙 Commodities & Crypto:

• Gold (MCX): ₹98,223 — Sell bias
• Silver: ₹1,14,815 — Flat
• Crude: ₹5,742 — Neutral
• NatGas: ₹270 — Reversal watch
• Dollar Index & USDINR: Trading flat

“Don’t buy the open. Let weakness play out early. Watch 24,720–24,780 for potential bounce trades. Vols are still suppressed, so trend clarity may only come post-Fed. Pharma shows strength, rest of the market looks fragile.”

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