In this episode of Fresh Thinking, Ian Glacken (Executive Consultant) and Dr Gregory Zhang (Senior Consultant) discuss one of the most important topics in modern resource modelling: uncertainty.

From the long-standing debate of simulation vs estimation, to the growing focus on geological uncertainty and hierarchical truncated plurigaussian simulation, this episode explores where the mining industry stands — and where it still needs to improve.

⏱ Key Topics 00:00 – Introduction: Simulation in mining and why uncertainty matters 01:18 – Simulation vs estimation: what's the real difference? 02:16 – The "space of uncertainty": grade, geology, parameters and planning 03:34 – Are we misleading stakeholders by ignoring uncertainty? 05:34 – Has grade uncertainty been solved? Two-point vs multipoint simulation 06:39 – Data uncertainty: blast holes, nugget effect and sampling quality 07:30 – Parameter uncertainty and spatial bootstrapping 09:43 – Geological uncertainty: why it's fundamentally different 10:44 – Plurigaussian and hierarchical truncated plurigaussian simulation (HTPGS) 12:51 – Industry adoption and emerging trends 13:08 – The "holy grail" of a comprehensive uncertainty model 14:47 – Digital twins and the future of integrated uncertainty modelling

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#Mining #ResourceModelling #Geostatistics #Simulation #Geology #MiningEngineering