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EP 15: FII Sell-Off Continues, Clients Overloaded Long, and Breakdown Risk Rises | July 29 (Tuesday)
Welcome to EP15 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.
The market opens on a shaky note. Gift Nifty is down 45 points at 24,673. FIIs have now sold for six straight sessions. Clients are overloaded on the long side while pros quietly accumulate puts. Is another leg down on the cards?
- 📊FII/DII Cash Activity (Monday):
- FIIs: Sold ₹6,082 Cr
- DIIs: Bought ₹6,764 Cr
- MTD Tally:
- FIIs: -₹36,591 Cr
- DIIs: +₹46,590 Cr
⚙️Market Setup:
- Nifty (Spot): ~24,706
- Opening print expected: ~24,650
- TK Algo Signal: Still in Sell mode from 25,135
📉 Sectors in Red:
- Realty
- Capital Markets
- Smallcap
- Infra
- FMCG
- CPSC
- Metals
📈 Only CNX Pharma shows relative strength
Client vs Pro Positioning:
Clients:
- Long Futures: 1.26 lakh
- Call Longs: 81,000
- Put Shorts: 5.00 lakh
- Net Long Bias: +5.90 lakh contracts → overextended
Pros:
- Long Futures: 15,000
- Call Shorts: 5,000
- Put Longs: 2.48 lakh
- Net Bearish Bias: ~2.54 lakh contracts
Interpretation:
Clients are aggressively long into a falling market. Pros are positioned for a continued breakdown. Caution warranted.
⚠️Volatility & Expiry Insight:
- 31 Jul IV: 11.02
- Aug IV: 11.17 — Surface is flat but up from sub-10 lows
- ATM Straddle (31 Jul @ 24,700): ₹208
- Recommendation:
- Short Calendars
- Long Gamma via short-dated straddles + long-dated hedges
🔑Key Levels:
- Resistance: 24,960 → 25,085
- Support: 24,700 (critical), followed by 24,680 & 24,650
- If 24,680 breaks — no fresh longs
- Only consider upside trades above 24,700 with follow-through
- Mean has shifted down to 25,000, stay cautious
🪙Commodities & Crypto:
- Gold (MCX): ₹98,117 — Neutral
- Silver: ₹1,13,169 — Sell bias
- Crude: ₹5,714 — Sell zone
- NatGas: ₹225 — Sell
- Dollar Index: Firm
- USDINR: ₹86.41 — Strength persists
- Bitcoin: Flat, trading near ₹1,16,000
“Clients are fully long — and fully exposed. If 24,680–700 doesn’t hold, the market could see fresh pressure. Pharma remains the lone bright spot. Best setups today: short calendars, call spreads, butterflies only above key supports.”
📅 New episodes drop every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST
🎧 Trade Setup with Tanmay — your daily edge before the chaos begins.
View all episodes
By Tanmay KurtkotiWelcome to EP15 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.
The market opens on a shaky note. Gift Nifty is down 45 points at 24,673. FIIs have now sold for six straight sessions. Clients are overloaded on the long side while pros quietly accumulate puts. Is another leg down on the cards?
- 📊FII/DII Cash Activity (Monday):
- FIIs: Sold ₹6,082 Cr
- DIIs: Bought ₹6,764 Cr
- MTD Tally:
- FIIs: -₹36,591 Cr
- DIIs: +₹46,590 Cr
⚙️Market Setup:
- Nifty (Spot): ~24,706
- Opening print expected: ~24,650
- TK Algo Signal: Still in Sell mode from 25,135
📉 Sectors in Red:
- Realty
- Capital Markets
- Smallcap
- Infra
- FMCG
- CPSC
- Metals
📈 Only CNX Pharma shows relative strength
Client vs Pro Positioning:
Clients:
- Long Futures: 1.26 lakh
- Call Longs: 81,000
- Put Shorts: 5.00 lakh
- Net Long Bias: +5.90 lakh contracts → overextended
Pros:
- Long Futures: 15,000
- Call Shorts: 5,000
- Put Longs: 2.48 lakh
- Net Bearish Bias: ~2.54 lakh contracts
Interpretation:
Clients are aggressively long into a falling market. Pros are positioned for a continued breakdown. Caution warranted.
⚠️Volatility & Expiry Insight:
- 31 Jul IV: 11.02
- Aug IV: 11.17 — Surface is flat but up from sub-10 lows
- ATM Straddle (31 Jul @ 24,700): ₹208
- Recommendation:
- Short Calendars
- Long Gamma via short-dated straddles + long-dated hedges
🔑Key Levels:
- Resistance: 24,960 → 25,085
- Support: 24,700 (critical), followed by 24,680 & 24,650
- If 24,680 breaks — no fresh longs
- Only consider upside trades above 24,700 with follow-through
- Mean has shifted down to 25,000, stay cautious
🪙Commodities & Crypto:
- Gold (MCX): ₹98,117 — Neutral
- Silver: ₹1,13,169 — Sell bias
- Crude: ₹5,714 — Sell zone
- NatGas: ₹225 — Sell
- Dollar Index: Firm
- USDINR: ₹86.41 — Strength persists
- Bitcoin: Flat, trading near ₹1,16,000
“Clients are fully long — and fully exposed. If 24,680–700 doesn’t hold, the market could see fresh pressure. Pharma remains the lone bright spot. Best setups today: short calendars, call spreads, butterflies only above key supports.”
📅 New episodes drop every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST
🎧 Trade Setup with Tanmay — your daily edge before the chaos begins.