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EP 16 : FII Selling Streak, Sector Divergence, and Expiry Drift Ahead | July 30 (Wednesday)
Welcome to EP16 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.
Markets open flat with Gift Nifty at 24,803, down 36 points. The setup remains cautious ahead of the key Fed decision tonight. FIIs continue to sell for the eighth straight day, while DII flows support the market. Earnings, global cues, and sector rotations are setting the tone.
Global Markets
US indices touched record highs before paring gains.
Nasdaq: 21,098 (-18 pts)
S&P 500: 6,370.86 (-18 pts)
Dow Futures: +53 pts
Europe closed strong
FTSE: +50 pts
CAC: +56 pts
DAX: +247 pts
Asia this morning is mixed
Taiwan, Kospi, Shanghai, Jakarta: positive
Hang Seng, Nikkei: down
Gift Nifty: 24,803 (-38 pts) at 8 AM IST
Commodities and Currency
Crude Brent: $72
Gold: $3,328/oz
Gold (MCX): ₹97,930
Silver: ₹1,30,398 (neutral)
Crude Oil (MCX): ₹5,830 (showing strength)
Natural Gas: neutral
Dollar Index: 98.7
USDINR: stable
FII/DII Activity (Tuesday)
FIIs: Sold ₹4,636 Cr
DIIs: Bought ₹6,146 Cr
MTD Tally
FIIs: -₹41,227 Cr
DIIs: +₹52,737 Cr
Earnings Today
Over 100 companies to report, including Power Grid, Indigo, Tata Steel, Hyundai Motors, PNB, Indus Tower, Hitachi, KPIT
Client vs Pro Positioning
Clients
Futures Long: 1.31 lakh contracts
Call Shorts: 1.23 lakh
Put Shorts: 4.4 lakh
Net Long Exposure: ~3.17 lakh contracts
Clients remain long but have begun unwinding calls
Pros
Futures Long: 9,850
Call Longs: 1.47 lakh
Put Longs: 2.14 lakh
Net Short Exposure: ~60,000 contracts
Pros maintain bearish stance
Interpretation
Clients are still long but hesitant. Pros continue to hold protective put longs. This divergence could lead to volatility near key expiry levels.
TK Algo Update
Fast signal: Buy
Combined signal: Still Sell
Awaiting confirmation for full reversal
Sector Snapshot
Strength: Pharma, Infra, Auto
Neutral: Metals, Finance, Realty
Weak: FMCG, IT, Realty
Volatility & Expiry Setup
IVs have bounced slightly
31 Jul IV: 9.71
August IV: 10.32
Straddle (31 Jul @ ATM): ₹154
Implied Range
Upside: ~25,000
Downside: ~24,700
Outlook
A flat to weak open may drift to 24,700–24,750 intraday
Watch 24,890 as trigger level for short-covering
Mean remains at 25,000
Strategy
Call calendars or call spreads preferred
Short calendar trades may work on high strikes
Avoid aggressive long trades unless 24,890 is reclaimed
The market is still looking for direction. A 25–30 point dip early could attract dip buyers if expiry support zones hold. Watch Fed commentary tonight for bigger directional cues into Thursday’s trade.
Episodes drop every morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST
Trade Setup with Tanmay — your daily edge before the chaos begins
View all episodes
By Tanmay KurtkotiWelcome to EP16 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.
Markets open flat with Gift Nifty at 24,803, down 36 points. The setup remains cautious ahead of the key Fed decision tonight. FIIs continue to sell for the eighth straight day, while DII flows support the market. Earnings, global cues, and sector rotations are setting the tone.
Global Markets
US indices touched record highs before paring gains.
Nasdaq: 21,098 (-18 pts)
S&P 500: 6,370.86 (-18 pts)
Dow Futures: +53 pts
Europe closed strong
FTSE: +50 pts
CAC: +56 pts
DAX: +247 pts
Asia this morning is mixed
Taiwan, Kospi, Shanghai, Jakarta: positive
Hang Seng, Nikkei: down
Gift Nifty: 24,803 (-38 pts) at 8 AM IST
Commodities and Currency
Crude Brent: $72
Gold: $3,328/oz
Gold (MCX): ₹97,930
Silver: ₹1,30,398 (neutral)
Crude Oil (MCX): ₹5,830 (showing strength)
Natural Gas: neutral
Dollar Index: 98.7
USDINR: stable
FII/DII Activity (Tuesday)
FIIs: Sold ₹4,636 Cr
DIIs: Bought ₹6,146 Cr
MTD Tally
FIIs: -₹41,227 Cr
DIIs: +₹52,737 Cr
Earnings Today
Over 100 companies to report, including Power Grid, Indigo, Tata Steel, Hyundai Motors, PNB, Indus Tower, Hitachi, KPIT
Client vs Pro Positioning
Clients
Futures Long: 1.31 lakh contracts
Call Shorts: 1.23 lakh
Put Shorts: 4.4 lakh
Net Long Exposure: ~3.17 lakh contracts
Clients remain long but have begun unwinding calls
Pros
Futures Long: 9,850
Call Longs: 1.47 lakh
Put Longs: 2.14 lakh
Net Short Exposure: ~60,000 contracts
Pros maintain bearish stance
Interpretation
Clients are still long but hesitant. Pros continue to hold protective put longs. This divergence could lead to volatility near key expiry levels.
TK Algo Update
Fast signal: Buy
Combined signal: Still Sell
Awaiting confirmation for full reversal
Sector Snapshot
Strength: Pharma, Infra, Auto
Neutral: Metals, Finance, Realty
Weak: FMCG, IT, Realty
Volatility & Expiry Setup
IVs have bounced slightly
31 Jul IV: 9.71
August IV: 10.32
Straddle (31 Jul @ ATM): ₹154
Implied Range
Upside: ~25,000
Downside: ~24,700
Outlook
A flat to weak open may drift to 24,700–24,750 intraday
Watch 24,890 as trigger level for short-covering
Mean remains at 25,000
Strategy
Call calendars or call spreads preferred
Short calendar trades may work on high strikes
Avoid aggressive long trades unless 24,890 is reclaimed
The market is still looking for direction. A 25–30 point dip early could attract dip buyers if expiry support zones hold. Watch Fed commentary tonight for bigger directional cues into Thursday’s trade.
Episodes drop every morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST
Trade Setup with Tanmay — your daily edge before the chaos begins