Welcome to EP17 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.

Markets are set to open deep in the red after Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India. Gift Nifty is down 180 points around 24,675 as of 8 AM. It’s expiry day, and volatility is likely to spike sharply in the morning session.

Global Snapshot:

• Nasdaq: +31 pts to 21,129
• S&P 500: -8 pts to 6,362
• Dow Futures: +53 pts
• Europe: All major indices positive (FTSE +50, CAC +56, DAX +247)
• Asia: Mixed
• Gift Nifty: 24,675 (↓0.8%)

Commodities & Currency:

• Brent Crude: $72.36
• Gold (Comex): $3,292/oz
• Gold (MCX): ₹98,795 — rising
• Crude (MCX): ₹6,022 — strong
• Silver: ₹1,13,850
• Dollar Index: 98.7
• USDINR: Firm

FII/DII Flow (Wednesday):

• FIIs: Sold ₹4,636 Cr (8th consecutive day)
• DIIs: Bought ₹6,146 Cr
• MTD Net:
  • FIIs: -₹41,227 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹52,737 Cr

Earnings Watch:

Key results today from Maruti Suzuki, Adani Enterprises, Coal India, and others following strong prints from major names yesterday.

Client vs Pro Positioning:

Clients

• Net Long: 3.72 lakh contracts
• Call Shorts: 5,000
• Put Shorts: 3.78 lakh → risk of getting trapped on open

Pros

• Call Longs: 54,000
• Put Longs: 2.00 lakh
• Net Short Bias: ~1.46 lakh → aligned for downside gain in early trade

Interpretation: Clients could get caught on the wrong foot in the opening drop. Pros likely to benefit from volatility spike.

Nifty & Options Setup:

• Nifty Spot Close (Prev): ~24,800
• Opening Expected: ~24,675
• ATM Straddle (31 Jul): ₹117
  • Implied range:
    • Upside: 25,000
    • Downside: 24,700 (at-the-money open)

    OI Analysis:

  • Support: 24,600 Put OI ~77 lakh
  • Resistance: 24,800 Call OI heavy
  • 24,500 Put: Low OI — limited downside cushion

Sector Snapshot (TK Algo):

• Weak: Capital Markets, IT
• Neutral: FMCG, Metals
• Potential Bounce: Infra, Pharma

Today’s theme: wait-and-watch for second-half recovery.

“Expect a volatile open with downside gaps. Put writers are likely to get hit early. If we hold above 24,600, a bounce into expiry is possible. Tariff panic may get digested by afternoon. Stay light and reactive — expiry can be a trap.”

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