Welcome to EP18 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.

The August series opens on the back foot. Gift Nifty is down 105 points, trading near 24,730, pressured by weak global cues, ongoing FII selling, and tariff tensions. The July expiry saw late-day selling despite a bounce earlier in the session, closing Nifty at 24,768.

Global Snapshot:

• Asia
  • Nikkei: -170 pts (-0.43%)
  • Hang Seng: -80 pts (-0.3%)
  • Taiwan: -127 pts (-0.5%)
  • Kospi: -3%
  • Shanghai, Jakarta: Flat to positive

• Gift Nifty: 24,730 (↓0.42%) at 8 AM IST

Commodities & Currency:

• Brent Crude: $71.59 — facing resistance near $72.50
• Gold (Comex): $3,289/oz — showing renewed strength
• Gold (MCX): ₹99,080 — buy signal
• Silver (MCX): ₹1,10,586 — sell bias
• Crude (MCX): ₹6,084 — stabilizing
• Natural Gas: Neutral
• Dollar Index: Rising towards 101
• USDINR: ₹87.60 — rupee weakens, ₹88 in sight for August

FII/DII Flow (July 31):

• FIIs: Sold ₹5,588 Cr
• DIIs: Bought ₹6,372 Cr
• August MTD (1 day)
  • FIIs: -₹6,400 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹8,200 Cr

  Index Position & Volatility:

• Nifty Spot: Likely to open near 24,700
• Support: 24,650
• Resistance: 25,000
• Mean: Still around 25,000
• IV (7 Aug Weekly): 10.88 — still low
• ATM Straddle (24,800): ₹305
  • Implied range:
    • Downside: 24,350
    • Upside: 25,100

    Volatility Play:

• Front IV low, Realized Vol high
• Long Gamma strategies recommended
• Suggested structure:
  • Buy front-end straddles
  • Sell back-end straddles → Short Calendar

• Play long gamma, short vega exposure

Sector View (TK Screener):

Weak

• Capital Markets
• Smallcap
• Metals
• CPSC

Watch for Bounce

• FMCG
• IT
• Banking

Support Levels

• If 24,650–24,600 holds, a move back to 25,000 possible

Strategy Outlook:

• Stay light at open
• Long Gamma positions work best on wide moves
• Calendar or straddle/strangle setups preferred
• Gold–Silver pair trade opportunity:
  • Long Gold / Short Silver

• “Global pressure, FII outflows, and rising USDINR are pulling the market lower. But if 24,600 holds, a base could form. Keep trades light and reactive. Real opportunity lies in long gamma plays this series.”

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