Welcome to EP19 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your 5-minute audio podcast before the chaos begins.

The August series kicks off with caution. Gift Nifty trades 84 points higher at 24,683, but global sentiment remains weak. US and European indices closed sharply lower on Friday, and Asian markets this morning are deep in the red — barring a few exceptions.

Despite this, clients continue to carry aggressive long positions, even as pros quietly maintain bearish exposure. Volatility is beginning to pick up, and the divergence between implied and realized moves is creating space for long gamma strategies this week.

Global Snapshot (as of 8 AM IST):

• Gift Nifty: 24,683 (+84 pts)
• Dow Futures: +10 pts

Earnings Today (Key Companies):

102 results expected including:

• DLF, Bosch, Siemens, Marico, Auro Pharma, Aditya Birla Capital, Godrej, Sundaram Finance,

Cient vs Pro Positioning:

Clients:

• Futures Long: 13,000 contracts
• Call Longs: 23,000
• Put Shorts: 4.5 lakh
• Net Long Exposure: ~5.45 lakh contracts

Pros:

• Futures Long: 11,000
• Call Shorts: 16,000
• Put Longs: 2.35 lakh
• Net Short Bias: ~2.4 lakh contracts

Insight:

Clients remain strongly bullish. Pros are defending downside with long puts and limited longs. If global cues stay weak, client positions may get tested.

Index Setup & Volatility:

• Synthetic Futures (7 Aug): 24,560
• Expected Spot Open: ~24,600
• Straddle (24,600 ATM): ₹297
  • Range: 24,420–24,870

• IV (7 Aug Weekly): 11.4
  • Higher than last week’s 9-range but still under pressure

  Strategy Outlook:

• Long gamma trade preferred → realized vol > implied
• Short calendar can be initiated:
  • Buy front-week straddle
  • Sell next-week straddle

• Directional Option Setup:
  • Long butterfly around 24,900–25,000 mean zone

  TK Algo & Sector View:

• Signal: Still in sell mode (fast + slow)
• Sector Strength: Only FMCG
• Weakness: Realty, Smallcap, Midcap, Metals, IT, Pharma

Commodities & Currency:

• Gold (MCX): ₹98,643 — Buy
• Silver (MCX): ₹1,09,382 — Sell
• Crude (MCX): ₹6,053 — Neutral
• NatGas (MCX): ₹272 — Neutral
• USDINR: ₹88 — Strong
• Dollar Index: Rising
• Bitcoin: ₹1,15,000 — Recovered from ₹1,12,000 lows

Clients are fully loaded on the long side. The market may bounce at the open, but risk remains skewed to the downside. If 24,600 breaks and global sentiment worsens, long positions may get squeezed. Use long gamma setups. Avoid chasing direction until structure builds post-opening.

Listen to the full episode now and prep for your trading day.

Trade Setup with Tanmay – Your daily edge before the chaos begins.

New episodes drop every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST.