Ep. 4 — Oil Crashes, AI Rallies, PCE Ahead

Everything ripped after oil cratered 9% and the market chose the rosiest possible read of the Fed minutes. This morning oil’s bouncing, futures are softer, and core PCE hits at 8:30 — does Goldilocks survive? Also: gold refused to flinch while crypto popped and COIN yawned.

Today's stories:

• The Tape — A buy-everything day: oil nuked, AI led, TSLA lagged; crypto up while COIN hesitated.
• The Footnotes — Oil’s bounce screams positioning, not regime shift; the Fed minutes fine print wasn’t so dovish; gold holds firm; SEC eyes pre-war headline trades; Dalio says Trump–Xi is about capital flows, not soybeans.
• The Nerd Corner — Why 5 bps in the 10-year can swing META 6.5%: discount rates, operating leverage, and the cost of capital dressed up as an AI revolution.
• The Calls — Rate-sensitive trades on the line before PCE/CPI: NVDA, QQQ, and the 10-year.

The Calls:

• Tom: If core PCE and CPI both print even 0.1 hot, NVDA finishes the week under 165.
• Ray: The 10-year ends the week above 4.45% — services/shelter won’t let CPI play nice.
• Alex: If core PCE is hot today, QQQ gives back more than half of yesterday’s gains by the close.

New episode every weekday before US market open.
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