In this episode, we speak with forecasting researcher & data scientist at Amazon AWS, Ryan Kupyn, about his timelines for the arrival of AGI.

Ryan was recently ranked the #1 forecaster in Astral Codex Ten's 2022 Prediction contest, beating out 500+ other forecasters and proving himself to be a world-class forecaster. He has also done work in ML & works as a forecaster for Amazon AWS.

Hosted by Soroush Pour. Follow me for more AGI content:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/soroushjp
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/soroushjp/

== Show links ==

-- About Ryan Kupyn --

* Bio: Ryan is a forecasting researcher at Amazon. His main hobby outside of work is designing walking tours for different Los Angeles neighborhoods.
* Ryan's meet-me email address: coffee AT ryankupyn DOT com
  * Ryan: "I love to meet new people and talk about careers, ML, their best breakfast recipes and anything else."

-- Further resources --

* Superintelligence (Bostrom)

* Superforecasting (Tetlock, Gardner)

* Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie, Tibshirani, Friedman)
  * Ryan: "For general background on forecasting/statistics. This book is my go-to reference for understanding the math behind a lot of foundational statistical techniques."

* Animal Spirits (Akerlof, Shiller)
  * Ryan: "For understanding how forecasts can be driven by emotion. I find this a useful book for understanding how forecasts can be wrong, and a useful reminder to be mindful of my own forecasts."

* Normal Accidents (Perrow)
  * Ryan: "For understanding how humans interact with systems in ways that negate attempts by their creators to make them safer. I think there’s some utility in looking at previous accidents in complex systems to AGI, as presented in this book".