Episode 47 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott catch up on recent news (01:06), discuss a Middle East-related Black Swan (12:10), and then dive into a variety of US politics-related PredictIt questions (28:01), including the Senate and tax cuts (28:43), the Senate special election (32:30), and an early look at the 2020 presidential election (48:17). They close with a discussion of the possibility of Paul Manafort being pardoned (54:40). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 11/17/2017).