NonProphets

Episode 101 of NonProphets, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss developments in artificial intelligence with Atief's friend Nathan, a businessman and engineer who recently attended a hack-a-thon devoted to A.I. projects. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 2/20/2023).(Intro: Jonathan Richman & The Modern Lovers - I Have Come Out To Play)

Episode 100 of NonProphets, in which Scott discusses his recent humanitarian/food tourist trip to Ukraine (00:17), before Atief's four-year-old daughter Beatrice decides to drop in at the end of the podcast (30:46). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 6/10/2022)

In episode 99 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview superforecaster and Latin American politics expert James Bosworth. We talk with Boz about the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Latin America (2:35); authoritarian populism in Latin America (15:22); the impact of the pandemic on Latin America (19:16); the anti-incumbency wave in Latin American politics (23:22); what Jair Bolsonaro will do if he loses the upcoming election in Brazil (33:51); the prospects for addressing corruption in Latin America (45:13); and whether the US pays enough attention to the region. Boz writes about Latin American politics on Substack at Latin America Risk Report (https://boz.substack.com/). You can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com (nonprophetspod.wordpress.com) or at [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]). (recorded 3/17/22)

In episode 98 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview Dr. Milo Jones, a Visiting Fellow at the Oxford Changing Character of War Programme as well as a Visiting Professor at the IE Business School in Madrid. He is also the author Constructing Cassandra: Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947-2001. We talk with Dr. Jones about the value of cognitive diversity in intelligence work (2:04); how asking the right questions can help us avoid strategic surprise (14:48); the importance of communicating intelligence analysis (24:19); whether Putin is in Zugzwang in Ukraine (31:01); whether Chinese mediation could provide an off-ramp for Putin in Ukraine (35:11); improving strategic empathy for other identities and cultures (42:02); the role of psychological profiling (56:26); and the advantages of living in a free society (1:00:20). You can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]). (recorded 3/4/22)

Episode 97 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, Scott, and Dr. Balkan Devlen discuss the war in Ukraine, including their forecasts of the possibility of war (1:15), the possible mindset of Putin (4:18), the way Russia's relationship with China may shape the conflict (22:29), the "Animal Farm" approach to sovereignty (22:38), and the possibility of some form of escalation (41:26). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 2/25/2022)For more from the entertaining and deeply knowledgeable Dr. Devlen, you can and should check out:https://twitter.com/BalkanDevlen (https://twitter.com/BalkanDevlen)https://www.balkandevlen.com/ (https://www.balkandevlen.com/)Hindsight 20/20 https://h2020.substack.com (https://h2020.substack.com/)

In this episode Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss predictions for 2022. 0:24 Pantone failure4:06 Is 2022 unpredictable? (thanks to the Superforecaster community for suggestions)6:00 Will the pandemic fade?12:20 Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations: How have we changed and what are the impacts of the shift?16:45 The conflict in Ukraine27:15 Turkey – Erdogan and the economy33:30 US domestic politics (More Covid),38:20 Supreme Court cases (Roe v. Wade), 45:00 Mid-term elections52:50 What will be the biggest stories of 2022?59:05 Urea!You can find NonProphets on Blubrry (https://www.blubrry.com/nonprophets/), iTunes (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/nonprophets/id1153928762), Spotify (https://open.spotify.com/show/7DXTunzwdz4mFrvajWrhQ4), Stitcher (http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/nonprophets-2/nonprophets?refid=stpr) and Google Play (https://play.google.com/music/listen#/ps/Irgn6npt6jsdzndlqge4rwe2ahq). As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page (https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/contact/) or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Episode 95 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their annual tradition of forecasting the Pantone Color of the Year. They demonstrate their borderline peerless knowledge of fashion and design trends, as well as the "zeitgeist," before making their final predictions (38:34). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 12/3/2021)

Episode 94 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss where Atief and his family should move (1:20). Over the course of the discussion, they consider political stability, climate change, and the value of faith in human ingenuity, which includes Atief misremembering the details but successfully recalling the broader points of the Simon-Ehrlich wager (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager) (23:40). They close with a preview of their annual Pantone Color of the Year prediction podcast, including a discussion of the Mandela Effect (36:12). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected].

Episode 93 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview fellow superforecaster Kjirste Morrell. Kjirste is a mechanical engineer and was interviewed for Adam Grant's recent bestseller Think Again. We discuss forecasting from an engineer's perspective (0:10); the value of comments on a forecasting question (4:30); what Kjirste meant by the phrase "the joy of being wrong" (8:35); how to combat bias in forecasting (14:05); a couple of tricky, longer-term Metaculus questions (29:15); how many people will have set foot on the moon by 2030 (46:25); and Kjirste's experience working on the Segway at Dean Kamen's DEKA Research. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com (http://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/) or at [email protected]. (recorded 5/14/2021)

Episode 92 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Scott and Robert interview John Bravender, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warning coordination meteorologist at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Scott and Robert talk to John about what they forecast at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (01:04); how they forecast hurricanes (04:45); what a "spaghetti plot" is (13:47); how they evaluate the accuracy of hurricane forecasts (16:06); how they make sure they communicate their forecasts in a useful way (24:32); how to communicate low-probability-high-impact events (29:55); why they don't use the term "vivid lightning" (41:36); why forecasts inherently have no value (44:42); and how to prepare communities to be resilient (55:41). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com (http://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/) or at [email protected]. (recorded 4/30/2021)