NonProphets

Episode 92 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Scott and Robert interview John Bravender, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warning coordination meteorologist at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Scott and Robert talk to John about what they forecast at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (01:04); how they forecast hurricanes (04:45); what a "spaghetti plot" is (13:47); how they evaluate the accuracy of hurricane forecasts (16:06); how they make sure they communicate their forecasts in a useful way (24:32); how to communicate low-probability-high-impact events (29:55); why they don't use the term "vivid lightning" (41:36); why forecasts inherently have no value (44:42); and how to prepare communities to be resilient (55:41). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 4/30/2021)

Episode 91 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about their experiences with the vaccine rollout and when they think things are likely to return to normal (01:40); the prospects for bipartisan legislation in US politics (37:06); and whether it depends on filibuster reform in the US Senate (44:45). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 3/20/2021)

Episode 90 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the final days of the Trump presidency and the aftermath of the attack on the Capitol. They take a victory lap for predicting one of the 2021 Pantone colors of the Year (1:35); look back to their 2016 forecasts for the Trump administration (Episode 16), and look forward at how the Biden will compare (5:00); give their prognosis for whether Biden will encounter anything as serious as the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic (14:30); discuss how much the threat of violence informs congressional decisions (23:30) and the future of the Republican Party and of Trumpism. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 1/10/2021)

Episode 89 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss US election results and forecast the 2021 Pantone color of the year. They talk about what happened in the US election (01:51); what will happen in the Senate special elections in Georgia (09:26); whether polls are any good (14:04); the paranoid style in American politics (21:31); whether Joe Biden can govern a divided country (28:14); who Donald Trump will pardon (this podcast was recorded before the Trump pardoned Michael Flynn) (32:22); how American democracy performed in the election (34:49); and what the 2021 Pantone color of the year will be (43:42). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 11/21/2020)

Episode 88 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the election advertising that they've experienced (00:47), before diving into the upcoming US election (07:32), including discussing QAnon, the possibility of right- and left-wing violence, and the possible effects of the pandemic on the results (30:55). They close by giving their electoral votes predictions (49:05). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 10/24/2020)

Episode 87 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the breaking news about Trump's tax returns (00:52) before debating the probability of a dramatic rise in right-wing violence (21:14), and the effects of Amy Coney Barrett on the Supreme Court in the context of Roe vs. Wade (47:42) and a possible return to the Lochner Era (54:32). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 9/27/2020)

Episode 86 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief (00:40), Robert (07:22), and Scott (11:29) catch up on what they've been up to over the last few months, and then discuss Camus and the effects of Covid-19 (17:38). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 7/18/2020)

Episode 85 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview Justin Crow, superforecaster and Director of the Division of Social Epidemiology for the Virginia Department of Health. We talk with Justin about social epidemiology and how it's relevant to understanding the Covid-19 pandemic (00:40); Liberty University's return to school (05:40); the CDC CASPER household survey and testing to help determine when we can safely relax stay at home and social distancing orders (12:30); the prospect of Covid-19 spreading to rural areas (21:00); how to control Covid-19 and still enjoy life (23:20); when should society re-open (36:40); and his recommendations (44:50). Justin's comments are his private opinions and should not be taken as official statements or policy of the Virginia Department of Health. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 4/5/2020)

Episode 84 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The podcast begins with an inside view of the Good Judgment / Open Philanthropy public site where forecasts and analysis of where the US and the world will be in one year are discussed. Atief's view from the heartland (Missouri) (4:50), Scott's view of the Romanian response and Robert's perspective on Hawaii, contrast how the disease is progressing and how disparate governments and cultures are responding. Travel restrictions (20:00) and stay at home orders are being implemented, but how are they received? The moral question of whether to send or not to send whiskey to a friend during an epidemic is broached. A wager (45:55) on who will get the virus first wraps up this episode. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 3/22/2020)

Episode 83 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the Covid-19 virus from the perspectives of Scott in Romania (1:48), Robert in Hawaii (19:44), and Atief in Missouri (36:50). They close with two age-old questions: how many monkeys is this? (44:06); and, why wasn't Jared unleashed sooner? (50:57). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. Note that this was recorded on 3/14/2020, and, while much of it remains relevant, it does not reflect the many legislative and social changes over the past week. OTBMFE.