NonProphets

Episode 82 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview former Charlottesville mayor Michael Signer about his new book, Cry Havoc: Charlottesville and American Democracy Under Siege. We talk to Mike about why he thinks American democracy is under siege (00:43); what makes President Trump a demagogue (07:48); whether the Electoral College can protect us from demagogues (11:52); how the national political climate affected events in Charlottesville (19:45); the importance of respecting people we disagree with in politics (22:58); whether constitutionalism can prevail against demagoguery (36:59); and why Mike endorsed Pete Buttigieg for president (43:35). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 2/21/2020)

Episode 81 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their annual tradition of attempting to accurately predict the upcoming Pantone Color of the Year. As part of their conversation, they discuss the concept of a "genderless color" (3:31), the set of colors from which they suspect the selection will be chosen (23:58), what is an "ecosexual" as opposed to an "echosexual" (27:26), and their ultimate predictions (45:37). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 11/23/2019)

Episode 80 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a call from a NonProphets listener who used to help produce MemCons (record of the President's calls) in the Situation Room for the NSC. The listener reached out to us after Episode 78 with details about both what we and the media understand about Trump's conversation with President Zelensky of Ukraine, and where the details don't add up. The podcast begins with Scott's recounting of the conversation, the technicalities as well as implications of moving a MemCon from the TNet system to the NICE system (6:49), Ukraine's predicament, Lt. Col. Vindman and Ambassador Taylor (13:45), impeachment (21:00), Baghdadi, Trump, and the Nationals, all in a day (30:30), and finally we end on a light note, anticipating our annual Pantone color podcast. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 9/28/2019)

Episode 79 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Tyson zones (1:00), A letter to Erdogan - Trump, the Kurds and nuclear weapons (2:29), Forecasting in the time of Trump - an exercise in Kremlinology? (27:10), Moscow Mitch and now Tulsi Gabbard? (30:14), Forecasting in a post-Trump world, (38:30), The indefinite Presidency (44:48), Predicting the next week (57:10). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 10/19/2019)

Episode 78 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Trump impeachment odds. We talk about why an impeachment might make sense now (01:18); whether we have reached peak whataboutism (04:23); the potential outcomes of an impeachment inquiry; the chance that Trump is impeached by the House (11:44); the role of public opinion (33:05); whether Mitch McConnell could prevent a trial from taking place in the Senate (40:22); and the chance that Donald Trump is convicted in the Senate (51:17). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 9/28/2019)

Episode 77 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a request for listener input on the Pantone Color of the Year (2:59), Iran and Saudi Arabia (8:47), with a detour into Russian/Ukrainian cultural cynicism (18:06), and the Trump whistleblower scandal/contretemps/nothing burger (25:39). They close with a discussion of the Democratic candidates, including Atief's recent purchase of a steeply discounted seat on the Marianne Williamson bandwagon. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 9/21/2019).

Episode 76 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what they did over the summer (01:05); why they've been less enthusiastic about following politics lately (06:03); what they think about the Democratic primary debates so far (10:49); whether the Democrats should go low when Republicans go low (18:29); to what extent we're responsible for the ethics and policies of the candidate we support (28:50); the weakening of the principle of stare decisis in American politics (37:49); and American values and the politics of resentment (41:00). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 8/2/2019)

Episode 75 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview David Epstein, author of the best-selling books Range and The Sports Gene. We talk to David about what it means to have range and how the 10,000 hour rule falls short (00:38); how to adapt to "wicked" learning environments (03:10); why "omnivorous generalists" are better at forecasting (18:40); how his research influenced the way he will raise his own child (29:00); what we get wrong about Mozart and Tiger Woods (33:40); the advantages of having students explore topics broadly rather than teaching them narrow skills (38:45); the value of "skill-stacking (50:00); and his experience interviewing Sir Roger Bannister (56:40). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 7/23/2019)

Episode 74 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the ethics of providing information, such as forecasts, to clients (00:45), why public information may be preferable to private when it comes to managing the risk of information misuse (13:12), and why it's so much simpler, from a moral perspective, to just paint houses (17:31). They close with a discussion of recent forecasts by Nancy Pelosi (19:04) and Jared Diamond (32:19), a discussion that includes the definition of "Schrödinger's Asshole" (21:10). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 5/12/2019).