28 to 3 Podcast

Ep. 68 | A Case Study: Trading up for a Top 3 QB in the Draft - Is it ever worth it? What history tells us...


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It's one of the biggest questions asked every year in the lead up to the NFL Draft: What are the chances our team will land its next franchise QB if it trades significant draft capital to move up and draft one of the top 3 QB's in the draft? After this episode (and thanks to some impressive analysis by our resident-stat/numbers guru, Nick), we have your answer. It may be what you're thinking, but the actual chance of such a move solidifying your QB of the future may surprise you.

Applying the question to this year's draft: Unless you've been living under a rock, it's common knowledge at this point that the top 3 rated.QB's in the 2024 draft are widely predicted to go off the board with the top 3 picks. As Saints fans not so "enamored" with our current QB (to put it nicely) and unsure of the future of the position beyond next season, a lot of talk is out there about the Saints "trading up" to get a QB in the 1st round - some even mentioning into that top 3, knowing it'll cost a serious price in future draft picks..

BUT - as good as Caleb, Jayden, and Drake may seem to be, can an investment in any of them provide even a coin-flip of a chance that - if drafted - they'll even be worthy of signing a second contract with the team?

In this episode, we go in-depth through every QB drafted in the first round over the past 10 years and vote whether we'd have given that QB the going-rate QB extension deal after his rookie contract is up. What percentage of those did we give the nod to? What percentage of that were QB's drafted by a team who gave up significant draft picks to go get them? This episode will give you all the answers, and very well may have DEFINITIVELY answered the question of whether it is ever a good idea to trade up to the top end of. the draft for a QB, regardless of how good he's rated coming out of college.

This was definitely a fun episode to record and an absolute must listen. WHO DAT?!

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