Episode 73 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview UC Santa Cruz cosmologist and Metaculus co-founder Anthony Aguirre. We talk to Dr. Aguirre about why he founded Metaculus (01:10); forecasting the far future and catastrophic events (14:08); forecasting the development of AI (21:30); calibrating forecasts (29:25); catastrophic risk and the Future of Life Institute (40:06); and exotic risks, including biotechnology, space weather, and vacuum decay (49:07). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 3/15/2019)