Policy Beyond Borders

EP 8 | Policy Beyond Borders | Myanmar's Upheaval: Decoding India's Economic and Strategic Calculus

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In the latest episode of ‘Policy Beyond Borders’, Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia discusses the recent ethnic upheaval in Myanmar against the Military Junta and its broader implications on India - Myanmar Ties.



KEY TAKEAWAYS

  1. The recent attacks intensified on October 28, 2023, in Myanmar, Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia highlights the crucial roles of the military, political parties, and ethnic armed groups.
    1. The defeat of the military doesn't signify political party triumph but empowers ethnic armed organisations, potentially leading to the disintegration of Myanmar. As the agendas of the ethnic rebels diverge from the democratic forces, it impacts the stability of Myanmar as a nation-state.
      1. Aung San Suu Kyi remains the singular national figure in Myanmar, and the absence of a comparable figure within political parties means that, under pressure, the military may seek a political settlement through her release. 
        1. The speaker underscores the robust Myanmar-China ties, citing their strategic nature in military collaboration and economic engagement. India can re-establish its relations with Myanmar only through dialogues.
          1. The hindrance to economic growth between India and Myanmar, particularly in engineering, stems from Myanmar's domestic instability, deterring investors and complicating economic dynamics for India.
            1. If India needs to re-establish its relations with Myanmar achieving peace is crucial which requires India's comprehensive "government plus" approach. This entails active involvement from businesses, universities, think tanks, and women in collaborative efforts to build and sustain peace and security in the country.


              2. SPEAKER

              Amb Rajiv Bhatia,  former Ambassador to Myanmar and Mexico and former High Commissioner to Kenya, South Africa and Lesotho. At present, he is a Distinguished Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies Programme at Gateway House.


              MODERATOR
              Neelima A, Associate, Research, CPPR 

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              Policy Beyond BordersBy Centre for Public Policy Research