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EP08: Expiry Day Playbook: Low IV, Range Compression & Calendar Setups | July 17
Welcome to EP08 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your daily 5-minute prep before the chaos begins. It’s expiry day and volatility is crushed — here’s your quick market pulse, sector plays, and trade ideas.
🔥
Top Highlights:
📉 Market Snapshot:
- Gift Nifty trades at 25,273, up 42 points at open.
- We’ve been range-bound around 25,200–25,250 for 5 straight sessions — and it’s worked well for volatility sellers.
🌍 Global & Asian Markets:
- Trump drama: Powell sacking threat made → later withdrawn.
- US Markets: Dow +200 pts, S&P +0.32%, Nasdaq +52 pts.
- Europe: Mixed to negative — FTSE, CAC, DAX down 0.13% to 0.57%.
- Asia: Mixed cues – Nikkei ↓, Hang Seng ↑, Taiwan ↓, Shanghai ↓, Jakarta ↑.
💹 FII/DII Flows:
- FIIs sold ₹1,858 Cr, continuing heavy exit.
- DIIs bought ₹1,223 Cr.
- MTD: FIIs net sellers ₹13,636 Cr, DIIs net buyers ₹16,969 Cr.
📊 Client & Pro Positioning:
- Clients:
- Net Call Short: 74,409
- Net Put Short: 3,30,256 → bullish bias
- Pros: Net long on options → playing volatility expansion
⚙️ Options & Volatility Setup:
- 17 July Expiry IV: ~8%
- Monthlies (July 31): ~9.5%
- 25200 ATM Straddle: ₹98 → 1 SD range = 25100–25300
- TK Algo Signal: Buy on Nifty
- Calendar Spread: 25200 strike trading at ₹180 – still the trade of choice.
📈 Tanmay’s Trade View:
- Expect expiry around 25,250–25,350.
- Use calendars for carry into next week.
- For expiry: deploy Iron Fly @ 25,250 with 150-point wings.
- Ideal dip buy zone: 25,060–25,070 for bounce to 25,250+
🏭 Sector Trends (TK Algo):
- Strength: Auto, FMCG, Realty, Capital Markets
- Weakness: CPSC, Metals, Financials
- Nifty/Bank Nifty/Sensex: Neutral
🛢️ Commodities & FX:
- Gold: $3,339/oz | MCX: ₹97,486 – strong
- Silver (MCX): ₹1,12,190 – strong
- NatGas: ₹304 – buy zone
- Crude: ₹5,696 – now in shorting territory
- USDINR: 85.80 (support), 86.10 (resistance) | DXY: 98.49
“Volatility is dead. Don’t chase the open — expiry trades will work best if you wait for dips or range compressions. Stick to calendar spreads, use Iron Flies, and lean on sector momentum for the edge.”
👍 Enjoyed the episode? Follow, Share, and rate us on your favorite platform.
🎧 Join again tomorrow for Trade Setup with Tanmay – your 5-minute market edge before the chaos begins.
View all episodes
By Tanmay KurtkotiWelcome to EP08 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your daily 5-minute prep before the chaos begins. It’s expiry day and volatility is crushed — here’s your quick market pulse, sector plays, and trade ideas.
🔥
Top Highlights:
📉 Market Snapshot:
- Gift Nifty trades at 25,273, up 42 points at open.
- We’ve been range-bound around 25,200–25,250 for 5 straight sessions — and it’s worked well for volatility sellers.
🌍 Global & Asian Markets:
- Trump drama: Powell sacking threat made → later withdrawn.
- US Markets: Dow +200 pts, S&P +0.32%, Nasdaq +52 pts.
- Europe: Mixed to negative — FTSE, CAC, DAX down 0.13% to 0.57%.
- Asia: Mixed cues – Nikkei ↓, Hang Seng ↑, Taiwan ↓, Shanghai ↓, Jakarta ↑.
💹 FII/DII Flows:
- FIIs sold ₹1,858 Cr, continuing heavy exit.
- DIIs bought ₹1,223 Cr.
- MTD: FIIs net sellers ₹13,636 Cr, DIIs net buyers ₹16,969 Cr.
📊 Client & Pro Positioning:
- Clients:
- Net Call Short: 74,409
- Net Put Short: 3,30,256 → bullish bias
- Pros: Net long on options → playing volatility expansion
⚙️ Options & Volatility Setup:
- 17 July Expiry IV: ~8%
- Monthlies (July 31): ~9.5%
- 25200 ATM Straddle: ₹98 → 1 SD range = 25100–25300
- TK Algo Signal: Buy on Nifty
- Calendar Spread: 25200 strike trading at ₹180 – still the trade of choice.
📈 Tanmay’s Trade View:
- Expect expiry around 25,250–25,350.
- Use calendars for carry into next week.
- For expiry: deploy Iron Fly @ 25,250 with 150-point wings.
- Ideal dip buy zone: 25,060–25,070 for bounce to 25,250+
🏭 Sector Trends (TK Algo):
- Strength: Auto, FMCG, Realty, Capital Markets
- Weakness: CPSC, Metals, Financials
- Nifty/Bank Nifty/Sensex: Neutral
🛢️ Commodities & FX:
- Gold: $3,339/oz | MCX: ₹97,486 – strong
- Silver (MCX): ₹1,12,190 – strong
- NatGas: ₹304 – buy zone
- Crude: ₹5,696 – now in shorting territory
- USDINR: 85.80 (support), 86.10 (resistance) | DXY: 98.49
“Volatility is dead. Don’t chase the open — expiry trades will work best if you wait for dips or range compressions. Stick to calendar spreads, use Iron Flies, and lean on sector momentum for the edge.”
👍 Enjoyed the episode? Follow, Share, and rate us on your favorite platform.
🎧 Join again tomorrow for Trade Setup with Tanmay – your 5-minute market edge before the chaos begins.