Welcome to EP10 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute edge before Indian markets open. It’s a Monday filled with heavy results, weak volatility, and divergent institutional bets. TK breaks it all down.

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Top Highlights:

📉 Market Snapshot:

• Gift Nifty at 24,991 — down 40 points
• Nifty closed Friday at 25,020, flirting with key support near 24,900
• Straddle (25,000) priced at ₹256 → 1 SD range:
  • Upside: ~25,220
  • Downside: ~24,840

  🌍 Global Cues:

• US Markets closed at record highs
  • Dow: 44,390
  • Nasdaq: +10 pts
  • S&P: Flat

• Europe also ended higher
• Dollar Index: 98.40 (cracked below 98.50)
• USDINR: 86.15 (resistance: 86.25, support: 85.90)

📊 FII/DII Flows:

• FIIs net buy ₹374 Cr on Friday
• DIIs net buy ₹2,103 Cr
• MTD:
  • FIIs: -₹16,955 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹21,893 Cr

📈 Earnings Flood This Week:

• Big names reported Friday: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance
• Today’s expected results: Ultratech Cement, Havells, InterGlobe, Oberoi Realty, IDBI Bank, RBL Bank, and more

📈 Sector Signals (TK Algo):

Strength:

• Realty
• Pharma
• FMCG
• Capital Markets
• Metals

Weakness:

• Banks
• CPSC stocks
• Midcap & Smallcap

⚙️ Volatility & Strategy:

• IVs near 52-week lows
  • 24 July: 9.75
  • 31 July: 9.94
  • August: 10.72

• Bias: Consolidation with positive tilt
• Calendar spread (ATM): Trading at ₹126 → still viable
• Broken Wing Butterfly:
  • Buy 24,700
  • Sell 24,900 (x3)
  • Buy 25,050 (x2)

📌 Positioning (Clients vs Pros):

Clients:

• Long Futures: 93,000 contracts
• Call Shorts: 35,000
• Put Shorts: 4.39 lakh → strong bullish stance

Pros:

• Long Futures: 18,000
• Long Calls: 28,000
• Long Puts: 2.26 lakh → playing downside risk

“Heavy put shorts, ultra-low IVs, and upcoming earnings make this a week to stay nimble. Avoid naked shorts, play calendars, or explore broken-wing structures to define your risk.”

Trade Setup with TANMAY drops every market morning by 8:45 AM.

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