Welcome to EP12 of Trade Setup with TANMAY, your 5-minute prep before the markets open.

Markets continue to gap up in the morning and fade mid-session. With volatility near record lows and clients overloaded on put shorts, is another trap brewing? Let’s dive in.

Global Markets:

• Dow: +129 pts
• S&P 500: Flat at 6,309
• Nasdaq: Still strong at 20,892
• Europe: Mixed — DAX down 1.1%, FTSE & CAC flat
• Asia: Strong open — Nikkei +3%, Taiwan, Hang Seng positive

Indian Markets:

• Gift Nifty: +78 pts at 25,164
• Expected open: Nifty around 25,150

FII/DII Activity:

• FIIs: Sold ₹3,548 Cr
• DIIs: Bought ₹5,239 Cr
• MTD Net:
  • FIIs: -₹22,185 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹30,730 Cr

Volatility Watch:

• 21 July IV: ~8%
• 31 July IV: ~9%
• August IV: ~10%
• Straddle (24 Jul @ 25,000): ₹134
  • Implied range: 24,980 – 25,200

  Volatility is crushed. Range is tight. A breakout is due if direction strengthens.

Sector View (TK Algo):

Strength:

• CPSE
• Capital Markets
• Select Finance & Metals

Weakness:

• FMCG
• Infra
• Pharma
• Midcap
• IT

Nifty Signal: Still in Sell Mode on TK Algo & Scanner

Client vs Pro Positioning:

Clients:

• Long Futures: 97,000
• Short Calls: 23,000
• Short Puts: 4.08 lakh
• Net Long Bias: +3.08 lakh contracts

Pros:

• Futures Long: 15,000 (flat)
• Call Longs: 37,000
• Put Longs: 21,000
• Mild short bias via options

TK’s Take:

• Daily gap-ups with no follow-through = caution
• Clients may get trapped again near open
• Watch 25,000–25,050 as buy zone
• Avoid chasing highs; buy dips near support
• Don’t force trades — wait for structure to develop
• Calendars only work post-confirmation

Commodities & Crypto:

• Gold (MCX): ₹99,217 — strong
• Silver: ₹1,40,778 — strong
• Crude & NatGas: Weak — sell mode
• Bitcoin: ₹11,80,000 — bullish
• Dollar Index: 97.51 — below 98
• USDINR: 86.36 (Res: 86.55, Sup: 86.10)

New episodes drop every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST.

🎧 Trade Setup with TANMAY — your daily edge before the chaos begins.