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EP13: Expiry Day, Bullish Bias & Long Calendars in Focus | July 24 (Thursday)
Welcome to EP13 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute market prep before the chaos begins.
It’s expiry day, and the setup is primed for an upward bias. Gift Nifty is trading 50 points higher at 25,297, while vols remain extremely compressed. TK breaks down the global cues, client vs pro positioning, sector momentum, and expiry trades.
🌏Global Snapshot
- Nasdaq: +127 pts — new highs led by Alphabet
- S&P 500: 6,358 (+49 pts)
- Dow Futures: Flat to negative
- Asia: Rally continues as US–India trade tensions ease
- Crude: Subdued at $68.67
- Gold: Cooled off to $33.85/oz
- Dollar Index: 97.19
- USDINR: 86.41 — INR weakness continues
📊FII/DII Activity
- FIIs: Sold ₹4,209 Cr
- DIIs: Bought ₹4,358 Cr
- MTD Net:
- FIIs: -₹26,395 Cr
- DIIs: +₹35,070 Cr
💼Earnings Today
- Bajaj Finance, Nestle, Canara Bank, REC, Adani Transmission, Apollo, ACC, Emphasis, and more — watch for stock-specific moves
Client vs Pro Positioning
Clients:
- Long Futures: 1.01 lakh
- Call Shorts: 2.19 lakh
- Put Shorts: 2.84 lakh
- Net Option Bias: +65,000 (mildly bullish)
- Shift from put to call shorts could be a trap
Pros:
- Call Longs: 1.97 lakh
- Put Longs: 1.34 lakh
- Net Option Bias: +62,000
- Futures: +10,000 — bullish confirmation
📈Sector Signals (TK Screener)
Strong Momentum:
- Finance
- Bank Nifty
- Infra
- Metals
- Midcaps
- Auto
- CPSC
- Capital Markets
Neutral:
- FMCG
- Realty
- IT
No strong sell signals today.
Volatility & Expiry Trades
- Spot: 25,209
- Expected Open: 25,270–25,280
- IVs (24 Jul): ~8%
- 31 Jul IV: 8.44%
- August IV: ~10%
- ATM Straddle (25,250): ~₹100
- Could open at ₹85–90
- Collapse to ₹50 likely by midday
📌 Trade Ideas:
- Long Calendar: Buy 31 Jul / Sell 24 Jul
- Butterfly for expiry: Pin around 25,350–25,400
🪙
Commodities & Crypto
- Gold (MCX): ₹1,528,000 — strong
- Silver: ₹1,16,533 — strong
- Crude: ₹5,630 — weak
- NatGas: ₹279 — sell
- BTC: ₹11,80,000 — neutral
“Pros and clients are both long — expiry is set for a bullish tilt. Watch 25,170–25,180 as buy zones on dips. Calendars make sense with IVs so low. Use butterflies for expiry pinning if trend holds.”
📅 New episodes drop every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST.
🎧 Trade Setup with Tanmay — your daily edge before the chaos begins.
View all episodes
By Tanmay KurtkotiWelcome to EP13 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute market prep before the chaos begins.
It’s expiry day, and the setup is primed for an upward bias. Gift Nifty is trading 50 points higher at 25,297, while vols remain extremely compressed. TK breaks down the global cues, client vs pro positioning, sector momentum, and expiry trades.
🌏Global Snapshot
- Nasdaq: +127 pts — new highs led by Alphabet
- S&P 500: 6,358 (+49 pts)
- Dow Futures: Flat to negative
- Asia: Rally continues as US–India trade tensions ease
- Crude: Subdued at $68.67
- Gold: Cooled off to $33.85/oz
- Dollar Index: 97.19
- USDINR: 86.41 — INR weakness continues
📊FII/DII Activity
- FIIs: Sold ₹4,209 Cr
- DIIs: Bought ₹4,358 Cr
- MTD Net:
- FIIs: -₹26,395 Cr
- DIIs: +₹35,070 Cr
💼Earnings Today
- Bajaj Finance, Nestle, Canara Bank, REC, Adani Transmission, Apollo, ACC, Emphasis, and more — watch for stock-specific moves
Client vs Pro Positioning
Clients:
- Long Futures: 1.01 lakh
- Call Shorts: 2.19 lakh
- Put Shorts: 2.84 lakh
- Net Option Bias: +65,000 (mildly bullish)
- Shift from put to call shorts could be a trap
Pros:
- Call Longs: 1.97 lakh
- Put Longs: 1.34 lakh
- Net Option Bias: +62,000
- Futures: +10,000 — bullish confirmation
📈Sector Signals (TK Screener)
Strong Momentum:
- Finance
- Bank Nifty
- Infra
- Metals
- Midcaps
- Auto
- CPSC
- Capital Markets
Neutral:
- FMCG
- Realty
- IT
No strong sell signals today.
Volatility & Expiry Trades
- Spot: 25,209
- Expected Open: 25,270–25,280
- IVs (24 Jul): ~8%
- 31 Jul IV: 8.44%
- August IV: ~10%
- ATM Straddle (25,250): ~₹100
- Could open at ₹85–90
- Collapse to ₹50 likely by midday
📌 Trade Ideas:
- Long Calendar: Buy 31 Jul / Sell 24 Jul
- Butterfly for expiry: Pin around 25,350–25,400
🪙
Commodities & Crypto
- Gold (MCX): ₹1,528,000 — strong
- Silver: ₹1,16,533 — strong
- Crude: ₹5,630 — weak
- NatGas: ₹279 — sell
- BTC: ₹11,80,000 — neutral
“Pros and clients are both long — expiry is set for a bullish tilt. Watch 25,170–25,180 as buy zones on dips. Calendars make sense with IVs so low. Use butterflies for expiry pinning if trend holds.”
📅 New episodes drop every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST.
🎧 Trade Setup with Tanmay — your daily edge before the chaos begins.