The College Football Rundown

Episode 121 - Week 1 College Football 2025

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🎙️ College Football Rundown — Week 1 (2025)

Welcome back, Rundown Nation — Week 1 is here! Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM all season.

Find us at collegefootballrundown.com • X/Twitter: @WWCFB • Instagram: @college_football_rundown • Join the Discord.

Woj’s out for now, but we’re lining up guests throughout the year. Storey is back with Storeytime: Betting School, this week breaking down the Moneyline 101 basics.

🔙 Week 0 Recap — Chaos Arrives Early
  • Iowa State 24, Kansas State 21 (Dublin): Cyclones flipped the script as FG dogs, capitalizing on late conversions while K-State stalled. Underdog cover right out of the gate.
  • Hawai‘i 27, Stanford 24: A YouTube-trained freshman kicker wins it at the horn. QB Micah Alejado gutted it out on one leg. Hawai‘i covered both sides of the closing line.
  • Kansas 31, Fresno State 7: Jalon Daniels tossed 3 TDs as KU comfortably covered -14. Fresno had just 37 rush yds and 3 TOs.
  • UNLV 38, Idaho State 31: The Rebels (-21) escaped. Bengals put up 550+ yards but still lost; backers cashed.
  • WKU 41, Sam Houston 24: Right on the number. QB Maverick McIvor threw for 400+ yds, 4 TDs.
  • FCS Shakeups: Nicholls stunned #5 Incarnate Word 20–6 (as +11). Tarleton blanked Portland State 42–0.

    • Theme: underdogs landed blows, heavy chalk sweated, and August reminded us nobody’s safe.

    🏈 Week 1 Spotlights
    Texas vs. Ohio State — Columbus, OH (Noon ET, FOX)
    • Storyline: Brand-new QBs (Arch Manning vs. Julian Sayin), elite WRs (Ryan Wingo vs. Jeremiah Smith), and NFL-ready trenches.
    • Keys: Texas D-line vs. OSU run game; OSU’s WR depth vs. Texas pass rush.
    • Angle: Wide range of outcomes; could be a 21-20 slugfest or a blowout either way.
      • LSU vs. Clemson — Death Valley (Clemson)
      • QB Matchup: Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) vs. Cade Klubnik (Clemson). Both carry Heisman chatter.
      • Program Lens: LSU rebuilt via portal (18 new adds). Clemson doubles down on veteran core.
      • Keys: LSU OL vs. Clemson’s front (Woods, Parker). Both need TDs, not FGs, in the red zone.
      • Angle: Death Valley bragging rights + playoff stakes in Week 1.
        • Notre Dame vs. Miami — Hard Rock (Sunday Night)
        • Miami QB: Carson Beck (Georgia transfer) — big arm, chemistry TBD with young WRs.
        • ND QB: CJ Carr (true frosh) — won job late; first career start on the road.
        • X-Factor: RB Jeremiah Love — dynamic all over the field.
        • Angle: Sunday showcase; who settles in faster, Beck or Carr?
          • Nebraska vs. Cincinnati — Arrowhead (Thursday Night)
          • Nebraska: Dylan Raiola vs. zone coverage (73% completions vs. zone last year).
          • Cincinnati: QB Brendan Sorsby + new RBs (Walker, Prior) aiming for 35-min TOP.
          • Matchup: Raiola’s passing vs. Cincy’s zone D; who controls tempo?
            • Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina — Atlanta (Sunday)
            • Gamecocks: LaNorris Sellers (dynamic QB) + Rasheen Faison eligibility boost.
            • Hokies: Brent Pry under pressure; new OC, DC, 30 transfers, rebuilt OL.
            • Angle: Sellers’ dual-threat upside vs. Hokies’ patchwork roster.
              • 🐘 Heavy Favorites to Watch
              • Georgia vs. Marshall: Tune-up before SEC gauntlet.
              • Penn State vs. Nevada: ~44-pt spread; watch for backdoor cover.
              • Alabama vs. Florida State: Tide open as DD favorites (–13.5).

                • Betting Lens: inflated totals + backdoor covers common in these early “cupcake” games.

                📚 Storeytime: Betting School — Moneyline Odds Made Simple
                • Minus = favorite: –200 means risk $200 to win $100 (~67%).
                • Plus = underdog: +150 means risk $100 to win $150 (~40%).
                • Cheat sheet:
                • –110 ≈ 52% chance (coin flip line).
                • –150 ≈ 60%.
                • –200 ≈ 67%.
                • +150 ≈ 40%.
                • +300 ≈ 25%.
                • Takeaway: Minus means favorite, plus means underdog, and the bigger the number, the stronger the confidence gap.
                  • 📝 Housekeeping
                  • Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM.
                  • Site: collegefootballrundown.com
                  • X/Twitter: @WWCFB • Instagram: @college_football_rundown • Join the Discord.
                  • Hosting update: podcasts now live directly on the site — if issues, email [email protected].
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                    The College Football RundownBy The Rundown Crew