🎙️ College Football Rundown — Week 3 (2025)
Welcome back, Rundown Nation — Week 3 is here! Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM all season.
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Storey is back with Storeytime: Betting School, this week breaking down Sports Betting on the Exchanges — what event contracts are, how they work, and why they're different from a normal sportsbook moneyline.
🔙 Week 2 Rewind — Answers and New Questions
Oklahoma 38, Michigan 17: John Mateer steadied OU with 258 passing yards, 2 TDs, and the defense forced two turnovers. A rebound win that re-set market confidence. South Florida 31, Florida 24: QB Byrum Brown threw 2 TDs and ran for another, leading USF to its first true “program win” in years. A trip to Miami now looms much larger. SEC QB swings: Alabama's Ty Simpson went from Week 1 struggles to 3 TDs in a 73–0 rout of ULM. Arkansas' Taylen Green ran for 107 yards and 2 TDs vs. Memphis, but completed only 60% of passes. Missouri's Beau Pribula quietly posted 23/29 in a 41–14 win over Vanderbilt. A&M's Marcel Reed sparked two early scores vs. UTSA before leaving injured; Aggies still won 48–14.
Spreads in the SEC are moving 2–3 points weekly depending on which version of these QBs show up.
Heavyweights reset: Oregon 69–3 over Oklahoma State (600+ yards of offense). Ohio State 70–0 over Grambling State (allowed <150 yards total). Texas 38–7 over San Jose State (300+ passing yards, no turnovers). Alabama 73–0 over ULM (scored on every possession).
Panic buttons from Week 1? Safely back in the drawer.
Theme: The market is reacting fast — QBs are swinging lines, and national brands reminded everyone they're still at the top.
📈 Betting-Relevant Trends
Scoring up: Week 1 FBS vs. FBS ~23 ppg → Week 2 ~27 ppg. Offenses settling in, totals adjusting. Georgia–Tennessee line compresses: Opened –5.5, trimmed to –3.5 midweek. That's respect for Tennessee's vertical shots at home, not just hype. Personnel notes: Colorado's Ryan Staub threw 157 yds & 2 TDs; may start vs. Houston. Iowa lost TE Addison Ostrenga (Achilles), their key red-zone target. Kentucky's Zach Calzada is banged up; Cutter Boley could change tempo if pressed into action. A&M's Marcel Reed remains the biggest swing factor for spreads and totals. 🏈 Week 3 Spotlights
Texas A&M at Notre Dame — Sat, 6:30 CT (NBC/Peacock)
Line: ND –6.5 | Total: 49.5 Marcel Reed's health is the hinge. A&M averages 43 ppg with him healthy. ND's CJ Carr (62% comp, 5 TD, 2 INT) has shown poise but turnover issues. Both defenses are allowing <300 yds/game, so margin will be slim. Can A&M's explosiveness travel — or will ND's balance at home cover the number? Georgia at Tennessee — Sat, 2:30 CT (ABC)
Line: UGA –3.5 | Total: 49.5 Georgia has won last 4 meetings by an average of 25. But Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar (9.4 y/a, six 40+ yd completions already) adds big-play juice. Georgia's defense has given up just 21 points in two games. Tennessee's offense is scoring 34 ppg. Market compression reflects real respect for Neyland's explosives. Miami vs. South Florida — Sat, 3:30 CT (CW Network)
Line: Miami –17.5 | Total: 56.5 USF QB Byrum Brown hasn't thrown an INT in 240+ attempts. Miami's defense is holding opponents under 20 ppg and just 3.1 ypc. Ball security vs. tempo: if USF keeps it clean, they can hang inside the number. 📚 Storeytime: Betting School
This week: Sports Betting on the Exchanges
- What event contracts are and how they work.
- Why the contract price = implied probability.
- Pros vs. cons compared to sportsbook moneylines.
- Real-world examples: holding to settlement vs. trading mid-game.
🔎 Undercard Watch
Pitt @ West Virginia (Sat, 2:30 CT, ESPN): Backyard Brawl, Pitt –6.5, total 58.5. Rivalry often flips totals late. Memphis @ Troy (Sat, 11:00 CT, ESPNU): Memphis –3.5, both top 40 in yards/play. Hidden yards decide it. Duke @ Tulane (Sat, 7:00 CT, ESPN2): Tulane –1.5, tempo clash — Duke wants speed, Tulane wants control. 📝 Housekeeping
Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM. Site: collegefootballrundown.com X/Twitter: @WWCFB • Instagram: @college_football_rundown • Join the Discord. Hosting: podcasts live on the site — if issues, email [email protected]. ]]>
