The College Football Rundown

Episode 123 - Week 3 College Football 2025

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🎙️ College Football Rundown — Week 3 (2025)

Welcome back, Rundown Nation — Week 3 is here! Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM all season.

Find us at collegefootballrundown.com • X/Twitter: @WWCFB • Instagram: @college_football_rundown • Join the Discord.

Storey is back with Storeytime: Betting School, this week breaking down Sports Betting on the Exchanges — what event contracts are, how they work, and why they're different from a normal sportsbook moneyline.

🔙 Week 2 Rewind — Answers and New Questions
  • Oklahoma 38, Michigan 17: John Mateer steadied OU with 258 passing yards, 2 TDs, and the defense forced two turnovers. A rebound win that re-set market confidence.
  • South Florida 31, Florida 24: QB Byrum Brown threw 2 TDs and ran for another, leading USF to its first true “program win” in years. A trip to Miami now looms much larger.
  • SEC QB swings:
  • Alabama's Ty Simpson went from Week 1 struggles to 3 TDs in a 73–0 rout of ULM.
  • Arkansas' Taylen Green ran for 107 yards and 2 TDs vs. Memphis, but completed only 60% of passes.
  • Missouri's Beau Pribula quietly posted 23/29 in a 41–14 win over Vanderbilt.
  • A&M's Marcel Reed sparked two early scores vs. UTSA before leaving injured; Aggies still won 48–14.
    • Spreads in the SEC are moving 2–3 points weekly depending on which version of these QBs show up.
  • Heavyweights reset:
  • Oregon 69–3 over Oklahoma State (600+ yards of offense).
  • Ohio State 70–0 over Grambling State (allowed <150 yards total).
  • Texas 38–7 over San Jose State (300+ passing yards, no turnovers).
  • Alabama 73–0 over ULM (scored on every possession).
    • Panic buttons from Week 1? Safely back in the drawer.

    Theme: The market is reacting fast — QBs are swinging lines, and national brands reminded everyone they're still at the top.

    📈 Betting-Relevant Trends
    • Scoring up: Week 1 FBS vs. FBS ~23 ppg → Week 2 ~27 ppg. Offenses settling in, totals adjusting.
    • Georgia–Tennessee line compresses: Opened –5.5, trimmed to –3.5 midweek. That's respect for Tennessee's vertical shots at home, not just hype.
    • Personnel notes:
    • Colorado's Ryan Staub threw 157 yds & 2 TDs; may start vs. Houston.
    • Iowa lost TE Addison Ostrenga (Achilles), their key red-zone target.
    • Kentucky's Zach Calzada is banged up; Cutter Boley could change tempo if pressed into action.
    • A&M's Marcel Reed remains the biggest swing factor for spreads and totals.
      • 🏈 Week 3 Spotlights
      Texas A&M at Notre Dame — Sat, 6:30 CT (NBC/Peacock)
      • Line: ND –6.5 | Total: 49.5
      • Marcel Reed's health is the hinge. A&M averages 43 ppg with him healthy. ND's CJ Carr (62% comp, 5 TD, 2 INT) has shown poise but turnover issues.
      • Both defenses are allowing <300 yds/game, so margin will be slim.
      • Can A&M's explosiveness travel — or will ND's balance at home cover the number?
        • Georgia at Tennessee — Sat, 2:30 CT (ABC)
        • Line: UGA –3.5 | Total: 49.5
        • Georgia has won last 4 meetings by an average of 25. But Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar (9.4 y/a, six 40+ yd completions already) adds big-play juice.
        • Georgia's defense has given up just 21 points in two games. Tennessee's offense is scoring 34 ppg.
        • Market compression reflects real respect for Neyland's explosives.
          • Miami vs. South Florida — Sat, 3:30 CT (CW Network)
          • Line: Miami –17.5 | Total: 56.5
          • USF QB Byrum Brown hasn't thrown an INT in 240+ attempts.
          • Miami's defense is holding opponents under 20 ppg and just 3.1 ypc.
          • Ball security vs. tempo: if USF keeps it clean, they can hang inside the number.
            • 📚 Storeytime: Betting School

            This week: Sports Betting on the Exchanges

            - What event contracts are and how they work.
            - Why the contract price = implied probability.
            - Pros vs. cons compared to sportsbook moneylines.
            - Real-world examples: holding to settlement vs. trading mid-game.

            🔎 Undercard Watch
            • Pitt @ West Virginia (Sat, 2:30 CT, ESPN): Backyard Brawl, Pitt –6.5, total 58.5. Rivalry often flips totals late.
            • Memphis @ Troy (Sat, 11:00 CT, ESPNU): Memphis –3.5, both top 40 in yards/play. Hidden yards decide it.
            • Duke @ Tulane (Sat, 7:00 CT, ESPN2): Tulane –1.5, tempo clash — Duke wants speed, Tulane wants control.
              • 📝 Housekeeping
              • Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM.
              • Site: collegefootballrundown.com
              • X/Twitter: @WWCFB • Instagram: @college_football_rundown • Join the Discord.
              • Hosting: podcasts live on the site — if issues, email [email protected].
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                The College Football RundownBy The Rundown Crew