Every year, experts confidently predict where the stock market is headed and every year, they’re usually wrong.

In this episode, we explore why forecasting fails, from our psychological craving for certainty to the illusion of control it creates. Drawing on the work of Nassim Taleb (The Black Swan) and Philip Tetlock (Superforecasting), we unpack why confident predictions often mislead investors.

You’ll learn how randomness, overconfidence, and complexity undermine even the boldest forecasts and when, if ever, predictions are actually useful.

The takeaway? The best investors don’t try to predict the future they prepare for a range of possible outcomes.

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