TweetThis is Only the Beginning, The Real Question is How Fast will Things Shift?

Recently a listener sent me a video presentation by Tony Seba called Clean Disruption – Energy & Transportation.  It really causes one to think a great deal watching this.  I want to point out today that I don’t feel this guys is 100% right, in fact early in today’s presentation I am going to read a quite harsh criticism by our own John Pugliano on this presentation.

I tend to fall somewhere in the middle on the three things Mr. Seba Brings up in the presentation between Seba and Pugliano.  These four factors are the cost and availability of…

Cost and efficiency of solar electric generation

Cost and efficiency of power storage (batteries)

Cost and efficiency of electric vehicles

Cost and efficiency of autonomous vehicles

For my analysis of what this all means today I will consider that Mr. Seba is 50% wrong.

Still that makes what is coming in the next 20 years, absolutely earth shattering.

Join Me Today As We Discuss…

What is the cross over point where everyone will have “some solar”

What is the cross over point where everyone will consider an electric vehicle

What is the cross over point where people will choose transportation as a service

Why I believe this is all coming, smart people can’t see what is obvious

Seba’s basic contention is anything highly underutilized is subject to massive disruption

The average car costs 10K a year to drive and sits unused 94% of the time

A typical power gen company has a third of its generation capacity used only 6% of the year

Some claims Seba Makes

Storage of power for an average home will cost a dollar a day by 2020

By 2022 a 200 mile range electric car will cost about 22K

Solar will double every two years and in 14 years will generation most of the worlds power

Solar will hit grid parity then “God parity”

Solar will hit grid parity in 80% of markets by 2017s end

69% of large corporations are planning to or already using solar

God parity is when the cost of transmission is greater that the cost of local generation

Cost of generation on a roof top in a good solar area will be 4cents a kwh by 2020

Cost of solar plus storage should be 7-8cents per kwh by 2020

Some utility scale solar is now already under 3cents per kwh

Tuscon Electric is currently running utility level solar and storage at 4.5 cents

What all this really means

Resources for today’s show…

Join the Members Brigade

The Year 67

Join Our Forum

Walking To Freedom

TspAz.com

The Granddaddy’s Gun Club

Bullhead Fishing Forum – A new little site I started

You Took the Words Right Out of My Mouth – Meatloaf

Sponsors of the Day

Bulk Ammo

JM Bullion

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Below is the Presentation by Tony Seba

Referred to in Today’s Show