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Recognizing Trends To Avoid big mistakes & Gain ____

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Avoid Massive Mistakes By More Accurately Identifying Trends-

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missing a trend, vs being wrong about one

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Instead, Ride the Wave of a True Positive Trend

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Can get really hurt by falsely identifying a trend…

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much worse than missing a correct trend

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Can really gain a lot by correctly identifying a trend

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Open Loops:  Some of the topics we have mapped to cover

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COVID biz ops

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Stock Market

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Fletch studied economics in grad school

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Environmental/ecological

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False straight lines…

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Short term vs long term trends

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What is a trend?

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What actually is a trend?

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Looking at why people make decisions

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Economists look at historical data and come up with reasons why that data happened

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to potentially model future events

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Real Estate projections in California

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Right way to ID a trend…

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understand what is driving us

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looking at the many contextual factors

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ID what is driving…

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Context that points to avoiding/going after a trend

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Money is a huge frame of context

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stock market

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Bitcoin/crypto

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Why is Bitcoin valuable?

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Will Bitcoin continue to grow?

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Does block chain have real, practical, and unique value

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History

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False long term trends…

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tulip bulb bubble

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Half truth long term trends

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Internet bubble

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Bubbles create irrational behavior — on the up & down

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Climate change

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C02 trends

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https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/graphic-the-relentless-rise-of-carbon-dioxide/

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true cost of things

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suddenness of change

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live in a box example

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COVID-19

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fear trend(s)

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curiosity or gratitude

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co-factors

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…a lotta money changing hands

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which will drive behavior

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biz

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hospitals

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work from home

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zoom

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web cams

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personal

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short term vs long term

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https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=fidget%20spinner

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linear vs non-linear

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short term vs long term

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brainz