Going into the New Year, the same ritual repeats.

Banks publish outlooks for the year ahead. Economists pick where the market is going to go. Social media fills with confident predictions about what will happen next year.

In this episode of Beyond the Market, we explore why predictions are completely useless and it doesn't matter who says them or how smart they are, because the future is far less predictable than we like to believe.

Drawing on the work of Philip Tetlock and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, I unpack decades of research on expert forecasting, uncertainty, and why confident predictions are often more dangerous than helpful.

We also explore the behavioural traps behind prediction and how humans are wired to crave certainty. We will also talk of the dangers of how confident forecasts create urgency and unnecessary action, and why being occasionally right doesn’t mean someone is a good predictor, it doesn't matter how much of expert or how much money they have. A broken clock is right twice a day, but that doesn’t make it useful.

This episode isn’t about making better predictions. It is understanding that predictions are noise that can be ignored.

What really works when if comes to investing are systems.

If you found this interesting, please follow and review Beyond the Market wherever you listen, it really helps the show reach more people. For more investing insights, mindset tips and behind-the-scenes clips, follow me on Instagram ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@anthonycotterfinance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. And if you’re already following, share this episode with a friend who needs to hear