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The Paul Truesdell podcast marks its 500th episode, a milestone that reflects not only consistency but a deep commitment to thoughtful, fact based analysis and the pursuit of genuine understanding in an often superficial world across hundreds of episodes, Paul grant Truesdell has provided listeners with something rare in modern media context, continuity and clarity. He does not chase headlines. He connects them. He does not amplify noise. He distills meaning

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through changing markets, political upheavals, social realignments and technological revolutions. Truesdells voice and the voices that join him have remained steady. Each episode serves as an artifact of its time, capturing not just events but the thought process behind them. Listeners have come to expect depth without pretension, humor without cynicism, and a perspective shaped by experience, not agenda.

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This 500th episode continues that tradition. The featured artifact and exploration of Pavlov, conditioning and behavioral finance reminds audiences Why truesdells commentary endures. He bridges psychology and economics, human nature and market cycles, reason and reaction. His work shows that knowledge is not static. It is conditioned, refined and tested by time.

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Reaching 500 episodes is more than an achievement of production. It is an act of endurance. It speaks to a relentless curiosity and a belief that people still crave ideas with substance each recording, whether delivered solo or through the blended tones of multiple AI voices, demonstrates that technology can enhance communication without erasing authenticity.

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Looking ahead, the Paul Truesdell podcast remains committed to delivering real insight for those who think critically and refuse to be conditioned by noise. 500 episodes stand as evidence that persistence and principles still matter, and that informed voices, when guided by integrity and intellect, can endure through every market cycle, every storm and every bell that tries to trigger a reflex instead of reason.

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Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, one and all, get ready for the big event. And so you ask, what is the big event? Well, it's none other than the Paul Truesdell podcast, and so let's get this show on the road, 54321,

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around the turn of the 20th century, Ivan Pavlov's work with dogs forever changed how we understand behavior. In his landmark experiment, Pavlov discovered that when he repeatedly rang a bell while feeding his dogs, they eventually began to salivate at the sound alone, even when no food followed, what began as a psychological study of digestion became one of the most profound lessons in psychology that living beings can be conditioned to respond automatically to external cues, even when those cues no longer align with

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reality, no longer aligned with reality. Now, that

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lesson extends far beyond the laboratory in modern finance investors, and I'm talking about every single one of us, without an exception, are conditioned by repeated exposure to certain emotional and financial stimuli. Our reactions to market movements, economic headlines and even the endless political rhetoric are built over years and sometimes well decades. Each experience creates an association that shapes how we perceive risk and reward. Let me repeat that each and every thing we see, listen, hear, touch and just simply feel, creates an association that shapes how we perceive risk and reward, like Pavlov's dogs, we react not to objective reality put well, but to the bell that reminds us of the past gains or losses that we've experienced.

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We often react not to objective reality. But to the bell that reminds us of past gains or losses

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in behavioral finance, these reactions fall broadly into three categories, and so these are my three facts, fear and folly. Those guided by facts tend to analyze information logically. They rely on fundamentals, earnings, cash flow, valuations, and maintain perspective during turbulent times. They are disciplined investors who understand that volatility is temporary, but long term compounding is permanent. They may delegate, they may retain, but they are focused on reality and facts, and so they are disciplined investors who understand that volatility Well, it's temporary, but long term compounding is permanent. Now those who are ruled by fear remember pain more vividly than profit, a market correction or recession can leave lasting emotional scars, leading to excessive caution, missed opportunities or paralyzing indecision. This is not uncommon. And then there are the folly F, O, L, L, Y, folly, the impulse driven behavior that emerges when greed, speculation or social contagion overrides good, solid judgment. Now let's talk about some examples. Well, that includes buying technology stocks in 1999 because everyone else was getting rich. Remember that stupid ad with the guy who held a sock with a couple of dots on it and called himself a sock puppy, and they were selling sock puppy, dog food, whatever. But I digress. So it's 1999 and everyone was chasing the get rich schemes out there, or today, chasing cryptocurrencies at their peak in 2021 despite the obvious signs of a mania, yes, just like the tulip mania, the

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tulip mania, which swept through the Netherlands in the 1630s was one of history's first recorded financial bubbles, when the price of tulip bulbs soared to absurd heights before collapsing overnight, reminding the world that emotion and speculation can outpace reason and reality,

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These reactions are not random. They are the direct result of conditioning. For instance, an investor who sold in panic during the 2008 financial crisis may have been rewarded in the short term by avoiding further losses. That emotional relief becomes reinforcement, a signal that selling at the first sign of trouble is the right move. Aha, not so fast. Buckaroo. Years later, when markets fluctuate, that same investor instinctively repeats the behavior, expecting the same relief, even if it means missing a major recovery. On the other hand, an investor who bought during the post crash rebound might have developed a dangerous confidence of always buying the dip, conditioning themselves to assume every downturn will recover instantly. It doesn't until it does not and they're a little bit older, and there's not a lot of time to recover.

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If you know him, you've heard him say timing in time in timing out. Paul is the master at timing out. Let's continue.

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The long term effects of such conditioning can be, well, rather profound. You see, over time, emotional reflexes shape portfolio outcomes more than the actual markets do. Fearful investors often end up underexposed equities and lose purchasing power to inflation. Those driven by the folly may Chase every new trend and eventually destroy their capital through overconfidence, even fact based investors, if not mindful, can fall prey to recency bias. Recency bias, the tendency to give greater importance to the latest event while forgetting the broader historical cycle after long bull markets, people believe that good times will never end despite corrections. They assume. And recovery is impossible, and so recency bias magnifies the impact of conditioning because it continually reinforces emotional patterns. After a few good years, the bell, Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding that triggers greed grows louder and louder, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, after a few bad months, the bell that triggers fear, ding, ding, ding, ding, becomes deafening. Ding, ding, ding, ding, the challenge for advisors is to help clients recognize these bells and recondition their thinking. I'm dead serious about this. That's a major part of...