The Real Voices of the Game Productions

Episode 515 The Arm's Race with Jim Curnal and Dave Dagostino


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Boston Globe article

Cole is hoping to return in two months, and he's not the only guy sitting in his doctor's waiting room: Several other star pitchers have been declared unavailable for Opening Day, if not the season — Lucas Giolito, Kodai Senga, Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah, Sean Hjelle, Tristan Beck and more. And the accusing fingers are pointing in all directions:

* At baseball front offices that demand more and more velocity;

* At MLB team's analytics departments, which many say are on a destructive quest;

* At the chase for new pitches with new arm angles and insane spin rates, not to mention 100-mph sliders and sinkers;

* At the Six Million Dollar Man attitude toward Tommy John surgery: “Go ahead, blow out your arm, we'll just repair it." The number of pitchers who have had arm surgery before being drafted or signed is exploding;

* At Major League Baseball for rules changes — like the pitch clock and three-batter minimum — that pitchers say have put their arms in jeopardy;

* At parents and youth coaches who see that scouts want velocity and spin rates and are ruining young arms while dreaming that their 8-year-old might one day sign a big-league contract.

* At baseball front offices that demand more and more velocity;

“MLB started a very, very, very big issue … decided that 97 [mph] was way, way, way more valuable than 91,”

Fact: Skenes is Steve Carlotn minus Lefty's 324 W's 5,200 innings 254 CG's 4,100 K's

Top 25 ERA''s 2023 - their Velocity

90 1 86

92 3 88

93 4 89

94 4. 90

95 6 91

96 5 92

97 2. 93

50% 94 and under 5% is 90 and under

50% 95 + 5% is 91+

2023: Top 50 - Velocity 96+

ERA 2023

Under 3.00 8

3.00 - 3.50 14

3.50 - 4.00 9

4.00 - 5.00 13

5.00+ 6

40% ERA 4.00+

56% ERA 3.50+

16% ERA 3.00 under

Velocity Leaders

#4 99 3.76

#5 99 5.27

#7 98 7.18

#8 98 4.82

#13 98 4.14

#14 98 4.75

#17 97 4.35

#19 97 3.76

#20 97 3.86

#21 97 3.90

#22 97 4.07

* At MLB team's analytics departments, which many say are on a destructive quest;

* At the chase for new pitches with new arm angles and insane spin rates, not to mention 100-mph sliders and sinkers;

Spin Rate Analyis

Results: ERA % represented in the Top 30 Lists

Fast Ball - Top 30 50% ERA 4.00+ 30% ERA 4.50+

Curve - Top 30 70% ERA 4.00+ 30% ERA 4.50+

Slider - Top 30 50% ERA 4.00+ 27% ERA 4.50+

Change - Top 30 77% ERA 4.00+ 30% ERA 5.00+

Cutter - Top 30 67% ERA 4.00+ 37% ERA 4.50+

Sweeper - Top 30 80% ERA 4.00+ 47% ERA 4.50+

Curve Ball

7 of Top 10 ERA 4.00+

14 0f Top 20 ERA 4.00 + 9 ERA 4.50+ 3 ERA 6.80+

Sweeper

6 of Top 10 ERA 4.00+ 5 ERA 4.50+

16 of Top 20 ERA 4.00+ 11 ERA 4.50+ 6 5.40 ERA+

* At the Six Million Dollar Man attitude toward Tommy John surgery: “Go ahead, blow out your arm, we'll just repair it." The number of pitchers who have had arm surgery before being drafted or signed is exploding;

Discuss TJ Recovery Rate - from my Analysis

* At Major League Baseball for rules changes — like the pitch clock and three-batter minimum — that pitchers say have put their arms in jeopardy;

“It's up to the owners and it's up to [MLB commissioner] Rob Manfred to protect us, and they're not protecting us at all. The biggest thing that's changed is the pitch clock. I would assume that is probably the biggest cause of the injury wave this spring..

* At the chase for new pitches with new arm angles and insane spin rates, not to mention 100-mph sliders and sinkers;

300 lb. Dead Lift with their arms

While MLB teams want to protect their big investments, one pitcher stated there's also a belief that most pitchers are disposable.

“At the end of the day, we'll keep developing new pitchers, so by the time you're hurt, we'll have a

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The Real Voices of the Game ProductionsBy David Dagostino

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