Episode 63 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Wednesday, March 18th, 2026

Topic: 10-Year Treasury Note — Fed Decision Day

🔥 WHAT'S HOT:

• 10-Year Treasury at 4.21% — down from 4.28% last week, 4.31% a year ago. Stability supports CRE deal flow
• Sweet spot for transactions: 4.0-4.25% range — we're right there
• Cap rate spreads attractive: Multifamily Class A 4.5-5.25%, Industrial 5.5-6.25%, Grocery-anchored retail 5.75-6.5%
• Fed expected to hold at 3.5-3.75% today — stability allows confident underwriting
• Transaction velocity improving: $562B projected for 2026 (+15-20% YoY)

❄️ WHAT'S NOT:

• Inflation sticky — February CPI 2.4%, Core 2.5%. Fed's 2% target still out of reach
• Energy prices a wildcard — Iran conflict pushing oil higher, could delay or eliminate rate cuts
• Aggressive easing hopes dead — markets pricing 0-1 cuts as base case for 2026
• Sub-4% Treasury financing may be years away

💡 WHY IT MATTERS:

Treasury stability is unlocking deal flow even without rate cuts. Cap rate compression will be gradual: Industrial 40bps, Retail 35bps, Multifamily 25bps, Office 20bps from peaks. The era of cheap capital is over. Underwrite at current rates and focus on income.

🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:

Don't wait for rate cuts that may never come. 10-Year at 4.21% supports positive leverage for quality assets. Focus on cap rate spread — not rate predictions. The window for acquiring well-priced assets at attractive spreads is open now.

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