What's Hot What's Not CRE

By Alan Pavlosky

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FAQs about What's Hot What's Not CRE:

How many episodes does What's Hot What's Not CRE have?

The podcast currently has 70 episodes available.

What's Hot What's Not CRE episodes:

March 27, 2026Episode 70: Office Delinquency Hits Record 12.34% — Weekly Wrap-Up
It's Friday, March 27th, 2026 — time for your weekly CRE market wrap-up.
WHAT'S HOT:
Data centers at 97% global occupancy — landlords have serious negotiating leverage
$3 trillion in data center infrastructure investment expected by 2030
Retail pricing expected to hit record highs in 2026
Shopping center foot traffic up 1% YoY to 10.1 billion visits
Office vacancy down to 17.6% in February — down 2 percentage points YoY
Office attendance at nearly 70% of pre-pandemic levels
MBA forecasts $805 billion in CRE originations for 2026 (+27% from 2025)
Commercial mortgage rates between 5.71% and 5.96%
10-year Treasury at 4.15%
WHAT'S NOT:
Office CMBS delinquency hit record 12.34%
Overall CMBS delinquency at 7.47%
$3.18 billion in CMBS loans hitting hard maturity this month
17% of outstanding commercial mortgage balances mature in 2026
Industrial cooling — vacancy stabilizing, rent growth moderate
Power constraints limiting data center expansion
Data center construction costs averaging $11.3M per megawatt
DEALS OF THE WEEK:
Prologis & GIC: $1.6B logistics joint venture
Breakthrough Properties: $465M CMBS loan for San Diego life science campus
EQT Real Estate: 2M SF infill logistics portfolio in Southern New Jersey
SL Green JV: $1.7B refi in progress for Manhattan building
INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:
Data centers and retail are leading. Office is stabilizing but watch the delinquencies. Industrial is normalizing after years of outperformance. Capital is flowing — focus on quality assets with strong fundamentals.
#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #WeeklyWrapUp #DataCenters #OfficeRealEstate #RetailRealEstate #Industrial #CMBS #CapitalMarkets #RealEstateInvesting #CREInvesting #MarketUpdate #Delinquency #Prologis #SLGreen #LifeScience #Logistics #MultifamilyInvesting #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot]]>
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4min
March 26, 2026Episode 69: 50% of Phoenix Rentals Offering Free Rent — Class A's Problem
In this episode, we break down Class A vs B vs C multifamily performance and pick a clear winner for 2026.
WHAT'S HOT:
Class B workforce housing holding strong with better occupancy, healthier renewals, and steady leasing velocity
Rent growth projected at 2% nationally in 2026 — Class B capturing recovery without concession pressure
Fannie and Freddie each have $88 billion in lending capacity for 2026
Agency debt available in high-4% range
Banks, life companies, and debt funds actively seeking quality Class B loans
WHAT'S NOT:
Class A vacancy finished 2025 at 8.1% — well above historical norms
Class A rent growth essentially flat at -0.1%
50%+ of Phoenix rentals offering at least one month free rent
Sun Belt concessions averaging 5 weeks
Class C facing forced sales and capital constraints — sub-90% occupancy deals in trouble
Insurance costs surged 172% over past decade, hitting Class C hardest
WHY IT MATTERS:
Only 270,000 new units slated for 2026 — the slowest supply growth in over a decade. Completions dropping 24% from 2025. Class B is best positioned to capture the recovery.
VERDICT: Class B = Strongest | Class A = Challenged (Sun Belt) | Class C = Weakest
INVESTOR TAKEAWAY: Class B workforce housing offers stable cash flows, strong tenant demand, and favorable capital markets access. Avoid Class A in high-supply Sun Belt markets until concessions burn off. Be very selective on Class C.
#Multifamily #ClassBMultifamily #WorkforceHousing #ApartmentInvesting #SunBeltRealEstate #PhoenixRealEstate #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #RealEstateInvesting #MultifamilyInvesting #RentGrowth #ClassAMultifamily #RealEstate2026 #PropertyInvesting #MultifamilyMarket]]>
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5min
March 25, 2026Episode 68: $875 Billion Maturity Wall — The 2026 Refinancing Crunch
Episode 68 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Wednesday, March 25th, 2026
Topic: Interest Rates and Capital Markets Update
🔥 WHAT'S HOT:
Fed held steady — FOMC kept federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for second consecutive meeting; projecting one more cut in 2026
10-year Treasury hovering at 4.37%-4.39%
CRE lending rebounding — MBA forecasts $805B in originations (+27% YoY); multifamily at $399B (+21%)
CMBS issuance surging — KBRA forecasts $183B in private-label CRE securitization, a post-financial-crisis high
Regional banks returning to CRE — PNC, US Bancorp, Regions, KeyCorp projecting recovery in commercial property lending
Cap rates stabilized — most investors expect rates to hold steady or compress slightly in retail, industrial, and hotel
❄️ WHAT'S NOT:
Maturity wall is here — $875B in CRE/multifamily debt (~17% of $5T outstanding) matures in 2026
Many loans originated at 3%-4% rates now face refinancing at double those levels
Multifamily maturities surging — jumps 56% from $104B (2025) to $162B (2026)
Office sector stress continues — maturity defaults expected to dominate new delinquencies
Extend-and-pretend running out of runway — loan modifications only delay reckoning, crowding 2026 window
💡 WHY IT MATTERS:
Capital markets are normalizing, but the maturity wall creates a bifurcated environment. Properties with strong fundamentals will refinance and transact. Challenged assets — especially office — face distress. This is creating both risk and opportunity.
🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:
Liquidity is available for the right deals. Focus on assets with stable cash flows and strong sponsorship. Watch for distressed opportunities as maturity defaults accelerate, particularly in office. The Fed's cautious stance means rates stay higher for longer — underwrite accordingly and don't assume aggressive rate cuts.
🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.
🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.
#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #CapitalMarkets #InterestRates #FederalReserve #FOMC #Treasury #MaturityWall #Refinancing #CMBS #CRELending #MultifamilyDebt #OfficeDistress #RegionalBanks #CapRates #RealEstateInvesting #CREInvesting #InstitutionalCRE #MarketUpdate #WednesdayBriefing #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #DebtMaturities #CREDebt #MortgageOriginations #DistressedAssets #CREFinance]]>
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6min
March 24, 2026Episode 67: 68% of Denver Rentals Offering Concessions — Where Rents Are Headed
Episode 67 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Tuesday, March 24th, 2026
Topic: Rent Growth and Rental Market Update
🔥 WHAT'S HOT:
Rent affordability improving — typical household spends 26.4% of income on rent, lowest since August 2021
Northeast markets leading rent growth — Hartford, Buffalo, Providence, NYC metro seeing strongest gains
Midwest stability attracting capital — Cincinnati, Columbus, Detroit, Kansas City, Philadelphia expecting ~3% rent growth
Spring leasing season arriving — modest price increases expected after 30 consecutive months of YoY declines
Single-family rentals outperforming — SFR projected +1.8% vs multifamily +0.9% by year-end
❄️ WHAT'S NOT:
Austin rents down 18.2% from September 2022 peak — ~$300/month savings for renters, pain for landlords
Phoenix rents fell 4% YoY; Denver multifamily down 3.2% annually
Concessions widespread — 40% of Zillow listings offering incentives; Denver at 68%, Phoenix at 54%
Average concession = 5 weeks free rent
National median asking rent at $1,667 — four-year low, lowest since March 2022
YoY rent growth essentially flat (-1.5% to +1.9% depending on source)
💡 WHY IT MATTERS:
The rental market is bifurcating sharply. Supply-constrained Northeast and Midwest markets are seeing rent growth while oversupplied Sun Belt metros continue correcting. This divergence creates both risk and opportunity depending on where you're invested.
🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:
Focus on markets with tight supply and stable demand — Northeast metros, Midwest secondary cities, and select coastal markets. Avoid chasing yield in oversupplied Sun Belt metros until vacancy normalizes. If acquiring in Austin, Phoenix, or Denver, underwrite conservatively and factor in continued concession pressure through 2026. Spring leasing season may provide a floor, but recovery will be gradual.
🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.
🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.
#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #RentGrowth #RentalMarket #Multifamily #ApartmentInvesting #Concessions #SunBelt #Austin #Denver #Phoenix #Northeast #Midwest #RentAffordability #MedianRent #SingleFamilyRental #SFR #RealEstateInvesting #CREInvesting #InstitutionalCRE #MarketUpdate #TuesdayBriefing #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #SpringLeasing #VacancyRates #RentDeclines #MarketCorrection]]>
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4min
March 23, 2026Episode 66: Construction Down 50% — The Supply Crunch That's Coming
Episode 66 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Monday, March 23rd, 2026
Topic: Residential and Multifamily Market Update
🔥 WHAT'S HOT:
Supply cooling — Completions projected at 333,000 units in 2026, down 36% from peak, lowest since 2014
Construction pipeline contracted over 50% from high
January 2026: 29% spike in multifamily starts, 453,000 permits annualized
BTR thriving — 64,000 homes under construction, 139,000 in planning
Investor sentiment improving — cap rates stabilizing, bid-ask spreads narrowing
❄️ WHAT'S NOT:
National vacancy at 8.6% — highest since post-financial-crisis recovery, above 6.9% historical average
Nearly 1.8 million units delivered over past 3 years, outstripping absorption
National occupancy at 94.5%, down slightly from January 2025
Rent growth sluggish — just 0.2% nationally in January; YoY growth to lag through H1 2026
Sun Belt markets like Houston seeing absorption rates fall, widespread concessions
💡 WHY IT MATTERS:
The multifamily market is entering a critical rebalancing phase. The supply wave that pressured occupancy and rents is finally cresting. Completions will continue dropping through 2027-2028, reducing vacancy pressure and supporting rent recovery — but we're not there yet.
🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:
The setup is improving but patience is required. Target markets where supply is contracting fastest and occupancy remains above 95%. BTR continues to outperform with stronger rent collections and lower turnover. Avoid high-vacancy Sun Belt metros until absorption catches up. Watch for cap rate compression opportunities as transaction volume rebuilds through back half of 2026.
🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.
🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.
#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #Multifamily #ApartmentInvesting #MultifamilyInvesting #BuildToRent #BTR #ConstructionPipeline #VacancyRates #RentGrowth #SupplyCrunch #RealEstateInvesting #CREInvesting #InstitutionalCRE #MarketUpdate #MondayBriefing #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #Completions #Absorption #SunBelt #Midwest #CapRates #TransactionVolume #WorkforceHousing #RentalHousing #Demographics #Homeownership #IRR]]>
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4min
March 20, 2026Episode 65: $3 Trillion Data Center Build-Out — Smart Money Friday
Episode 65 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Friday, March 20th, 2026
Topic: Investor Outlook — Where Smart Money Is Allocating in 2026
🔥 WHAT'S HOT:
Data centers — Global core fund capital could hit $50B in 2026; sector requires $3 trillion by 2030
Value-add strategies dominating — 45% of PE investors increasing capital deployment in next 12 months
Distressed opportunities emerging selectively — distress expected to peak in 2026 before flattening
Office conversions accelerating — NYC projected 9.5M SF of office-to-residential in 2026; RXR/One Investment $500M+ for 61 Broadway
Private credit expanding rapidly — filling gap as traditional banks reduce CRE exposure
75%+ of global CRE leaders plan to increase investment over next 12-18 months
❄️ WHAT'S NOT:
Commodity office — unless Class A trophy or clear repositioning plan; hybrid work isn't reversing
Overleveraged deals from 2021 — refinancing wall hitting; properties struggling at current rates
Undifferentiated retail — grocery-anchored resilient, but generic retail without strong anchors faces headwinds
💡 WHY IT MATTERS:
More than 75% of global CRE leaders plan to increase investment over the next 12-18 months. But capital deployment is deliberate, structured, and sector-specific — not broad risk-on. The gap between accelerating sectors and recalibrating ones is widening.
🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:
Smart money in 2026 is targeting: data centers, industrial logistics, value-add multifamily, and office conversions in gateway markets. Avoid: commodity office, overleveraged legacy deals, and undifferentiated retail. Be selective, be patient, and let distress come to you.
🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.
🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.
#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #DataCenters #SmartMoney #InvestorOutlook #PrivateEquity #ValueAdd #DistressedAssets #OfficeConversions #PrivateCredit #MultifamilyInvesting #IndustrialLogistics #RealEstateInvesting #CREInvesting #InstitutionalCRE #MarketUpdate #FridayBriefing #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #CorePlus #ValueAddStrategy #RefinancingWall #HybridWork #GatewayMarkets #CapitalDeployment #AI #CloudComputing #AlternativeAssets #IRR
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4min
March 19, 2026Episode 64: $208K/Door for Workforce Housing — The Class B Opportunity
Episode 64 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Thursday, March 19th, 2026
Topic: Class A, B, and C Multifamily Investment — Where Smart Money Is Allocating
🔥 WHAT'S HOT:
Class B workforce housing is the clear winner — stronger occupancy, steadier rent performance vs Class A
Class B cap rates compressed to 4.92% showing strong investor demand
Sage Investment Group targeting 18-25% IRR on 5-year workforce housing holds
San Diego workforce housing deal: $30M for 144 units (~$208K/door)
Demographic tailwinds: Teachers, nurses, police, tradespeople renting longer due to mortgage rates
Hotel-to-apartment conversions creating workforce housing at ~50% of ground-up costs
72% of investors plan to moderately expand multifamily portfolios in 2026
❄️ WHAT'S NOT:
Class A luxury apartments — vacancy above 10% in many metros, 30%+ advertising concessions
Class A faces heaviest lease-up pressure from new supply; renters want rent discounts over amenities
Class C challenged — higher delinquency, limited rent growth absorption, rising repair/turnover costs
Class C vacancy elevated; risk-adjusted returns often don't pencil for passive investors
💡 WHY IT MATTERS:
The market is bifurcating. Class A struggles with oversupply and concession wars. Class C faces operational headwinds. Class B sits in the sweet spot — strong demand from workforce renters, stable cash flows, value-add upside without Class A competition or Class C risk. Core-plus and value-add strategies considered most attractive for 2026.
🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:
Target Class B workforce housing in supply-constrained markets — Midwest, Northeast, select Sun Belt metros with balanced fundamentals. Avoid Class A in oversupplied markets until concessions normalize. Class C requires hands-on management. The middle of the market is where the risk-adjusted returns live.
🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.
🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.
#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #Multifamily #WorkforceHousing #ClassB #ClassA #ClassC #ApartmentInvesting #MultifamilyInvesting #CapRates #ValueAdd #RealEstateInvesting #PropertyInvestment #AffordableHousing #RentalHousing #CREInvesting #SunBelt #Midwest #Northeast #Concessions #VacancyRates #RentGrowth #InstitutionalCRE #MarketUpdate #ThursdayBriefing #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #CorePlus #ValueAddStrategy #HotelConversion #Demographics #IRR
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5min
March 18, 2026Episode 63: Fed Decision Day — Why Rate Cuts May Never Come
Episode 63 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Wednesday, March 18th, 2026
Topic: 10-Year Treasury Note — Fed Decision Day
🔥 WHAT'S HOT:
10-Year Treasury at 4.21% — down from 4.28% last week, 4.31% a year ago. Stability supports CRE deal flow
Sweet spot for transactions: 4.0-4.25% range — we're right there
Cap rate spreads attractive: Multifamily Class A 4.5-5.25%, Industrial 5.5-6.25%, Grocery-anchored retail 5.75-6.5%
Fed expected to hold at 3.5-3.75% today — stability allows confident underwriting
Transaction velocity improving: $562B projected for 2026 (+15-20% YoY)
❄️ WHAT'S NOT:
Inflation sticky — February CPI 2.4%, Core 2.5%. Fed's 2% target still out of reach
Energy prices a wildcard — Iran conflict pushing oil higher, could delay or eliminate rate cuts
Aggressive easing hopes dead — markets pricing 0-1 cuts as base case for 2026
Sub-4% Treasury financing may be years away
💡 WHY IT MATTERS:
Treasury stability is unlocking deal flow even without rate cuts. Cap rate compression will be gradual: Industrial 40bps, Retail 35bps, Multifamily 25bps, Office 20bps from peaks. The era of cheap capital is over. Underwrite at current rates and focus on income.
🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:
Don't wait for rate cuts that may never come. 10-Year at 4.21% supports positive leverage for quality assets. Focus on cap rate spread — not rate predictions. The window for acquiring well-priced assets at attractive spreads is open now.
🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.
🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.
#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #10YearTreasury #TreasuryYield #FederalReserve #FOMC #InterestRates #RateCuts #CapRates #CREInvesting #RealEstateInvesting #Multifamily #Industrial #Retail #Inflation #CPI #DealFlow #TransactionVolume #CREFinance #RealEstateFinance #PropertyInvestment #InstitutionalCRE #MarketUpdate #WednesdayBriefing #FedDecision #BondMarket #YieldCurve #CRECapital #RealEstateNews #InvestorInsights #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #UnderwritingStrategy #CapRateSpread #PositiveLeverage]]>
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4min
March 17, 2026Episode 62: Atlanta 5.8%, Austin -7.3% — The Rent Growth Map Flipped
Episode 62 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Tuesday, March 17th, 2026
Topic: Hottest U.S. Rental Markets — YoY Rent Growth
🔥 WHAT'S HOT:
Atlanta, GA — 5.8% YoY rent increase, strongest among major metros. Construction slowdown + continued in-migration driving demand
Minneapolis, MN — 5.2% YoY increase. Midwest outperformance continues. Limited new supply, stable employment
Chicago, IL — 4.4% YoY increase. Most undersupplied major metro. Vacancy at 3.5%
Detroit, MI — 4.0% YoY growth. Industrial renaissance supporting housing demand. Affordability advantage
Cincinnati & Columbus, OH — 3.1% projected growth. Midwest balanced markets with limited supply pipeline
❄️ WHAT'S NOT:
Austin, TX — 7.3% YoY DECLINE. Rents falling 33 consecutive months. Vacancy at 13.8% (up from 8.2%). Median asking rent $1,358
Denver, CO — 4.9% YoY decline. Vacancy at 7.6%, highest in a decade. 68% of properties offering concessions
Phoenix, AZ — 4.0% YoY decline. 70%+ of properties offering discounts vs 43% nationally. Vacancy 8.4%
💡 WHY IT MATTERS:
The rent growth map has flipped. Midwest markets that were overlooked are now leading. Sun Belt oversupply creating 2-3 year headwinds. National rent growth expected around 2% in 2026, but massive regional variance. Supply slowdown (50%+ fewer starts) will eventually tighten Sun Belt, but not until late 2026 or 2027.
🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:
Follow the rent growth. Atlanta, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit showing 4-6% gains. Avoid Austin, Denver, Phoenix until vacancy normalizes below 6%. Midwest and select Northeast markets offer superior risk-adjusted returns in 2026.
🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.
🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.
#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #RentGrowth #ApartmentRents #Multifamily #Atlanta #Minneapolis #Chicago #Detroit #Cincinnati #Columbus #Austin #Denver #Phoenix #SunBelt #Midwest #RentalMarket #YoYRentGrowth #VacancyRates #RentDecline #RenterFriendly #ApartmentInvesting #MultifamilyInvesting #RealEstateInvesting #PropertyInvestment #RealEstateNews #CREInvesting #MarketUpdate #RentalTrends #HousingMarket #RealEstateTrends #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #InvestorInsights #TuesdayMarketUpdate]]>
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4min
March 16, 2026Episode 61: 68% of Denver Rentals Offering Concessions — Where NOT to Buy
Episode 61 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — Monday, March 16th, 2026
Topic: Residential & Multifamily — Today's Most Relevant Data
🔥 WHAT'S HOT:
Build-to-Rent (BTR): 97%+ occupancy vs 94.8% conventional, 68,700 units under construction, completions declining through 2027
Supply Wave Cresting: New starts at lowest since 2012, ~300,000 completions in 2026 (half of 2024 peak), pipeline thinned to 690,000 units
Regional Winners: Northeast 96.1% occupancy, Midwest 95.6%, Chicago most undersupplied and demand-driven metro
Investor Sentiment Improving: More buyers in 2026 than 2025, financing more predictable, MBA forecasts significant originations increase
❄️ WHAT'S NOT:
Sun Belt Oversupply: South at 93.9% occupancy (lowest region), Austin and Phoenix steep annual rent declines
Concession Crisis: Denver 68% of rentals offering concessions, Phoenix 50%+ offering at least one month free
National Rent Stagnant: Average $1,740 unchanged from January, 0.4% below February 2025
Concessions Masking Performance: 1-4 months free inflates headline rents but compresses effective NOI
💡 WHY IT MATTERS:
The multifamily market is normalizing — not collapsing. Supply is finally slowing, occupancy is stabilizing, and investor appetite is returning. But performance is highly regional. Northeast and Midwest are tightening. Sun Belt is still absorbing.
🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:
Focus on supply-constrained markets with occupancy above 95%. BTR continues to outperform. Avoid chasing deals in oversupplied Sun Belt metros until concessions burn off. Calculate net effective rent — not asking rent. Market selection is everything in 2026.
🎧 Listen daily for your 3-minute institutional CRE briefing.
🌐 Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.
#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #Multifamily #BuildToRent #BTR #SingleFamilyRental #ApartmentInvesting #RentGrowth #Occupancy #Vacancy #RentConcessions #SunBelt #Denver #Phoenix #Austin #Northeast #Midwest #Chicago #RealEstateInvesting #MultifamilyInvesting #PropertyInvestment #RealEstateNews #CREInvesting #MultifamilyMarket #ApartmentMarket #RealEstateTrends #SupplyPipeline #NewConstruction #RealEstateData #MarketUpdate #DailyPodcast #CREPodcast #WhatsHotWhatsNot #InvestorInsights #RealEstateStrategy #MondayMarketUpdate]]>
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4min

FAQs about What's Hot What's Not CRE:

How many episodes does What's Hot What's Not CRE have?

The podcast currently has 70 episodes available.