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Episode 66: Inside the refining crunch: Saudi supply shifts & sanctions fallout
This episode breaks down a week of tightening global oil product markets - from Saudi Arabia’s surprising crude allocations and renewed sanctions turbulence to refinery capacity constraints dominating trader chatter. The team dissects what’s behind surging distillate spreads, gasoline’s structural strength, and the interplay between arbitrage flows, refining runs, and global inventories heading into winter. With volatility rising across barrels, the discussion zeroes in on what could cool - or further inflame - product cracks as maintenance winds down.
Key Takeaways:
Chapters:
(00:55) Market Setup & Saudi Surprises
Rachel and Phil kick off with the week’s headlines — Saudi allocations to China, sanctions fallout, and signs of refinery tightness ahead.
(04:31) Distillate Spreads on Fire
James explains the surge in gasoil cracks, East-West shifts, and why refiners might struggle to keep up with diesel demand.
(09:40) Gasoline Strength & Atlantic Arbs
Jorge digs into record-high gasoline cracks, West Africa’s pull, and how tight US and European stocks are reshaping trade routes.
(16:00) Naphtha Market Round-Up
Asian premiums rise as sanctions squeeze Russian supply — and backwardation keeps the East-West structure historically strong.
(18:07) Crude, Fuel Oil & Refinery Bottlenecks
Phil wraps up with crude market quirks, weak low-sulfur resid, and the broader refinery capacity story driving everything from octane to VGO.
(23:21) Outlook & Sign-Off
The team shares what they’re watching next - refinery restarts, inventories, and how the market resets heading into year-end.
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By SpartaThis episode breaks down a week of tightening global oil product markets - from Saudi Arabia’s surprising crude allocations and renewed sanctions turbulence to refinery capacity constraints dominating trader chatter. The team dissects what’s behind surging distillate spreads, gasoline’s structural strength, and the interplay between arbitrage flows, refining runs, and global inventories heading into winter. With volatility rising across barrels, the discussion zeroes in on what could cool - or further inflame - product cracks as maintenance winds down.
Key Takeaways:
Chapters:
(00:55) Market Setup & Saudi Surprises
Rachel and Phil kick off with the week’s headlines — Saudi allocations to China, sanctions fallout, and signs of refinery tightness ahead.
(04:31) Distillate Spreads on Fire
James explains the surge in gasoil cracks, East-West shifts, and why refiners might struggle to keep up with diesel demand.
(09:40) Gasoline Strength & Atlantic Arbs
Jorge digs into record-high gasoline cracks, West Africa’s pull, and how tight US and European stocks are reshaping trade routes.
(16:00) Naphtha Market Round-Up
Asian premiums rise as sanctions squeeze Russian supply — and backwardation keeps the East-West structure historically strong.
(18:07) Crude, Fuel Oil & Refinery Bottlenecks
Phil wraps up with crude market quirks, weak low-sulfur resid, and the broader refinery capacity story driving everything from octane to VGO.
(23:21) Outlook & Sign-Off
The team shares what they’re watching next - refinery restarts, inventories, and how the market resets heading into year-end.