Trade with Conviction

James Noel-Beswick hosts Aaron Kildow, Michael Ryan and Jay Maroo as Brent falls about 20% in a week on Iran strikes and talks. They cover what the US midterms mean for the war, freight, fuel oil, diesel arbs and WTI's stranded position.

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Chapters: 

(05:52) US midterms and the lame duck window: Democrats take Congress January 3. The December 11 funding bill and affordability act will reveal their energy stance.

(15:25) Freight: dirty rates crash and Gulf tonnage doubles: TD25 spot fell from 1,000 to 400 WS since early October. Gulf LR tonnage has doubled.

(23:30) Fuel oil: long January East-West: Rotterdam to Singapore arb shut by about $100 a ton, tightening Singapore supply. Zhoushan is pulling VLSFO too.

(28:32) Middle distillates: US diesel still won't build: Every transatlantic diesel arb into Europe is open, from a low base. A cold Q1 could pop prices.

(35:44) Crude: WTI stuck in the Gulf: Brent-WTI narrowed faster than freight fell, so WTI is stuck in the Gulf. Cushing is near five-year highs.

Jorge Molinero hosts June Goh and Michael Ryan as Iran’s tanker attacks escalate ahead of US elections. They cover Basra discounts, Aramco term talks, China’s product export quotas, and whether the TD3C sell-off is overdone.

Chapters: 

(01:52) Hormuz, sanctions and US politics: Iran’s attacks are rising and changing shape, and Washington may hold off until November 3.

(11:23) Crude: Aramco term talks and Gulf discounts: Stalled term talks and steep spot discounts show the Gulf barrel is moving at a cost.

(16:25) Refining margins and China export quotas: Asian margins flipped positive on weaker Gulf diffs and freight, with China quotas supporting light products.

(24:15) Freight: TD7 and TC14 turn: Forties strength pulled Afromaxes out of the Atlantic, and TC14 charterers stepped in to set a near-term bottom.

(26:36) Gasoline, Singapore 92 and NAFTA: Gasoline stays soft, but naphtha stays firm as TC5 keeps rallying and LR1 tonnage stays tight.

(36:03) LPG: US stocks and the butane premium: US propane stocks sit near record highs, but butane is tightening as blenders keep barrels inland.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Jay Maroo, Abhishek Kumar and Jorge Molinero unpack Iran's shift from blocking Hormuz to policing it, mounting strikes on Saudi and Russian energy infrastructure, a bearish TD3C freight call, Russian diesel exports returning, and tight Naphtha and LPG markets heading into winter.

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(00:04:47) Escalation Risk Into Midterms: US troop buildup, Houthi strikes on Riyadh and Aramco, and Trump-Netanyahu strike talk ahead of elections.

(00:13:04) Russia's Diesel Bandaid: Putin-Trump OFAC deal adds export barrels, but refinery damage still caps Russia's real capacity.

(00:18:47) Freight Tops Out: Jay turns bearish on TD3C as weak refining margins cut appetite for expensive crude freight.

(00:29:40) Diesel Floods Back: EU SPR releases and recovering Russian exports could flip diesel from tight to oversupplied by December.

(00:43:18) Naphtha Tight, LPG Strong: Jorge flags scarce naphtha, firm East-West arbs, and tightening butane as winter demand builds.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Michael Ryan, Aaron Kildow and Nikolas Plonski unpack Hormuz exports rebounding near pre-war levels despite daily tanker attacks, VLCC rates near $1.2 million a day, Trump's shelved diesel export ban, EU and US SPR releases, and why gas oil cracks still look bullish into Q1 2027.

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(00:00:20) Hormuz Holds, Barely: Crude exports near pre-war levels even as tanker attacks continue daily and Iran talks go nowhere.

(00:02:50) VLCC Rates Go Vertical: Freight fixtures surge out of the Gulf as VLCC rates jump from $80k to $1.2 million a day.

(00:12:54) Ukraine Hits Russian Refining: Lukoil's Volgograd refinery and a Transneft hub get struck, cutting roughly 5% of Russian capacity.

(00:15:06) Distillates and the SPR Release: EU and G7 SPR releases crush gas oil spreads, but Nikolas still likes Q1 2027 cracks.

(00:25:18) Freight and Crude Trade Calls: Michael turns bearish TC2 spreads, Aaron flags a $25 a barrel freight bill eating North Sea margins.

(00:31:03) Gasoline Holds the Line: RBOB stays firm on hurricane risk and tight US octane, with ARA still the Atlantic's key supplier.

Host June Goh welcomes Sparta colleagues James Noel-Beswick and Jorge Molinero to unpack the diesel crisis: why global stocks have hit 10-year lows, how geopolitics and refinery outages are compounding the squeeze, and where traders should look to position next.

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Chapters:

(03:59) Red Diesel and the US Response: Washington explores red diesel sales and fuel tax cuts as diesel prices hit $6 a gallon. EU pressure intensifies as the White House threatens export bans.

(04:00) Middle East Flows and Supply Reality: Saudi East-West pipeline back online, but production still far below capacity. Global crude rebounding, but refined products remain dangerously tight.

(06:35) China's Policy Pivot: Crude import quotas flat. Product exports suspended. The refinery outage crisis spreads—India's MRPL fires, potential strikes at US Gulf refineries.

(08:47) Light Distillates and Freight Gasoline stocks at 12-year lows. Naphtha weakness, but gasoline holding firm. LPG tight. Freight—specifically TC5 from Europe—up 65% in one month.

(15:38) The Diesel Armageddon: Singapore diesel cracks at seasonal highs. All regular diesel arbs into Singapore closed. European pricing bucking the trend. Heating oil cracks exploding.

(20:23) Trade Calls and Crude Outlook: James makes the bull case for Q1 heating oil cracks (at $90 per barrel). June covers the US SPR release and Mars basis under pressure through year-end.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, June Goh and Michael Ryan unpack the potential US diesel export ban, the Saudi pipeline attack and Russian refinery strikes reshaping crude flows. June covers the diesel, gasoline and crude fallout if the ban lands, while Michael maps the freight rush already underway on TC14 and VLCCs.

Chapters: 

(00:31) Trump's diesel ban threat: the backdrop: Trump backs a full or partial US diesel export ban; midterms, low stocks and Hormuz disruption drive the panic.

(03:09) Russia strikes and Saudi's pipeline scramble: Ukrainian drones knock out Russian refineries as Aramco reroutes 14 million barrels after an Iraq pipeline attack.

(09:51) HOGO whiplash and the diesel ban math: October Hogo swaps swing violently as June maps the price path if a 90 day export ban hits.

(13:49) Freight scramble: TC14, MRs and the LR2 dirty trade: Michael on the rush to fix diesel cargoes, TC14 risk, and MRs turning dirty if US exports stop.

(22:14) Fuel oil, refining margins and China's holiday lull: June and Hoa on high sulfur fuel support, razor thin refining margins and China's Golden Week pullback.

(29:34) Gasoline's own diesel story: ARA undercuts the Gulf Coast, TC2 rallies and East-West Q4/Q1 spreads look primed for a repeat.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Jay Maroo, Aaron Kildow and James Noel-Beswick break down the Petroline pipeline strike forcing Saudi crude back through Hormuz, freight rates hitting record highs, and diesel cracks near $100/bbl. The real constraint now is products, not crude, with no clear sign of demand destruction.

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Chapters: 

(01:40) Petroline strike and the Hormuz squeeze: Saudi's Yanbu pipeline takes a direct hit, Houthis seize Mocha, and barrels are forced back through Hormuz.

(06:25) Crude: Iraq's discount and Saudi's pincer: Iraq sells at steep discounts to move barrels via ADNOC as Saudi crude gets squeezed on every side.

(18:40) Freight: the Hormuz premium blows out: Rastanura to Ningbo nears $1 million a day as owners charge up to $500k extra to transit Hormuz.

(34:25) Fuel oil: Saudi's feedstock problem: Lost Red Sea refining capacity tightens hi-5 further, with LSFO diverted into conversion units instead of blending.

(38:53) Diesel: record cracks, closed arbs: Gasoil cracks near $100/bbl and Asian spreads hit decade highs, yet most European and Asian arbs stay shut.

(47:29) Gasoline and the missing demand destruction: Every signal says sell, but nobody's finding the demand destruction that should be capping this rally.

James Noel-Beswick hosts Nikolas Plonski and Jorge Molinero as Iran-US escalation, Houthi attacks on Mokka and Russian refinery strikes push Brent through $100. They cover record US diesel margins, a widening TI-Brent, gasoline strength in Singapore, an LPG price spike, and a split CPP freight market.

Chapters: 

(00:42) Headlines: Iran, Hormuz and the road to $100 Brent Tanker strikes, Houthi advances and a widening danger zone push Brent through the century mark in eight sessions.

(06:16) Crude: WAF and South America fill the Hormuz gap WAF, Brazilian and Argentinian grades price into Asia as AG flows shrink; trade calls short WTI-Brent, long Q1 Dubai miles.

(09:52) US products: distillate and gasoline hit record highs Managed money net length in RBOB and heating oil reaches multi-year highs as US retail diesel prints an all-time high.

(19:10) Middle distillates: Singapore diesel near records, jet stays bearish European and Singapore diesel cracks surge on Russian outages while jet regrades slip as aviation demand fades.

(22:34) Gasoline and naphtha: record East-West and an LPG shock Singapore 92 rallies, naphtha East-West hits a seasonal record and Aramco's OSP hike sends LPG and pet-chem margins swinging.

(30:15) Freight: a split CPP market and tight VLCCs East of Suez tonnage runs 50% below average while the US Gulf list balloons; VLCC and TD20 markets stay bullish.

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Abhishek Kumar, Michael Ryan and Jay Maroo cover the Iran-US escalation and Kirishi refinery strike, then break down a diesel market pulling barrels from Singapore to Houston, a gasoline barge spike to $2.90, TC14 freight jumping 45 points, and three fresh crude trade ideas.

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Chapters: 

(00:39) Geopolitics: Iran strikes back, Russia's refineries burn US hits Iran, Iran strikes Saudi VLCCs, Kirishi refinery shut, Russia now imports diesel, gasoline and jet.

(04:55) Middle distillates: Rotterdam pulls barrels from everywhere Diesel ARBs open from Yanbu to Singapore, a rare Korean MR heads to Rotterdam as Europe scrambles.

(17:25) Jet and freight: TC14 jumps 45 points in a day Jet underperforms diesel on rising Asian exports while owners chase the diesel ARB, spiking US Gulf freight.

(19:46) Gasoline: barges spike to 290, Houston flips cheapest European barges surge after a shaky start, Houston beats Singapore to West Coast Mexico for the first time.

(35:00) Crude and trade ideas: Mars over WTI, Dubai backwardation Dubai tightness signals supply risk, not demand, Jay's three trades bet on east-west and sweet-sour spreads.

Jay Maroo hosts Aaron Kildow and Nikolas Plonski as Hormuz de-escalation talk collides with a fresh tanker strike. Aaron unpacks the US SPR's final barrels and a collapsing TI-Brent spread, while Nikolas breaks down gasoline RINs volatility and a blown-out diesel east-west spread.

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Chapters:

(00:42) Geopolitics: Hormuz thaw meets sanctions and a tanker strike Oman-Iran deal signals de-escalation but OFAC sanctions widen and a Kuwaiti tanker gets struck.

(05:10) US crude: SPR nearly dry, wrong barrels at the wrong time Only 9-10 million SPR barrels remain, mostly sweet, just as diesel season needs sour crude.

(12:36) Hormuz hypothetical: what a reopening does to market share Japan and Korea's shift to US crude signals a lasting market share battle if Hormuz reopens.

(18:23) Fuel oil and gasoline: feedstock squeeze, RINs whipsaw Venezuelan barrels weigh on Atlantic HSFO while EPA's RIN waiver rumours rattle the gasoline TAR.

(28:14) Diesel's east-west spread blows out to minus $90 Chinese buying may be behind the widest east-west diesel spread on record, hinting at a demand shift.