Neil Crosby hosts with Michael Ryan and June Goh. Growing Hormuz transits, a record 262 VLCC orders, Atlantic tonnage oversupply, softening Dubai premiums, and why Singapore VLSFO blend margins are building a bullish case into Q3.

Chapters: 

(00:48) Atlantic freight: the tonnage trap

Ships flooding the Atlantic from all segments as Persian Gulf flows shrink, driving wild rate swings.

(04:47) Iran, Hormuz and US strategy

US-Iran direct conflict resumes; Hormuz transits quietly growing as Iran's oil influence fades.

(07:26) Demand data and inventory watch

Indian and EU demand mixed; Cushing near its 20 million barrel floor; VLSFO stocks at zero in Fujairah.

(12:09) Record VLCC orders: a long-term warning

262 VLCCs on order, surpassing the 2008 peak. The bearish signal shipowners cannot ignore.

(19:19) PG crude: trickle turns to stream

ADNOC tenders 14 million barrels; Dubai premiums soften; China stays out of WAF and PG markets.

(26:59) Products quickfire: distillates, gasoline, fuel oil

Singapore regrade strengthens; VLSFO east-west collapses to $55/ton; Botany Bay gasoline arb reopens.

Felipe Elink Schuurman hosts Neil Crosby and first-time guest Jay Maroo. The episode covers the stalled US-Iran peace process, Hormuz transit at 10% of pre-crisis levels, Indian and Chinese product exports collapsing, Cushing approaching its 20 million barrel floor, and why crude, distillates, and gasoline all look too cheap.

(01:15) Sleepwalking into the inventory crisis

Lebanon complicates the Iran deal; Brent under $100 despite accelerating US commercial crude draws.

(06:00) Hormuz: 10% of pre-crisis flows

Jay Maroo: even a peace deal won't reopen flows quickly — Hormuz is a runway, not a field.

(10:29) India, Russia, China: the supply rescue fails

Indian exports at 4-year lows, Russian runs collapsing, Chinese product exports disappoint May expectations.

(14:39) Distillates: gas oil rallies, heating oil spreads lag

Kuwait airport attack lifts sentiment; heating oil spreads haven't followed — and may still be the trade.

(20:28) Crude: Cushing at 22 million barrels

Commercial draws hit 1 mbd last week; physical diffs in Europe cooling from unexpected crude inflows.

(26:57) Gasoline: at five-year mean, everything looks cheap

ARA cheapest into LatAm; demand destruction estimates rising to 5-6 mbd globally.

Neil Crosby and June Goh cut through the noise on US-Iran deal speculation, unpacking why flat price is off, what 7 million bpd of Chinese crude imports means for diesel east-west dynamics, and why Sing FOGO holds up when bunker demand proves more inelastic than diesel.

00:00 – Hormuz risk and deal pricing Why the market is pricing an imminent deal, and why the evidence points the other way.

03:03 – China's crude import collapse May imports potentially at 7 million bpd — what that means for Asian balances and global supply.

09:32 – Dubai window and physical crude Dubai in the doldrums with almost no convergences; sellers stuck with cargo bought at higher levels.

09:53 – WTI, TI-Brent, and US market tightening Commercial draws accelerating, WCS diffs rising, MEH diff tightening — why TI-Brent could move further.

12:16 – Gasoline: RBOB, TA spreads, and Latam Summer arb mechanics, TC2 tonnage overhang, and the ARA vs Houston competitive dynamic.

17:09 – Distillates, east-west, and fuel oil China's crude release reshapes diesel E/W; Sing FOGO positive bias as bunker demand holds more inelastic than diesel.

Felipe Elink Schuurman, June Goh, and new analyst Abhishek Kumar cover a record 19.5mb stock draw that barely moved prices, the Russia OFAC waiver with no new barrels, India's supply strategy, Asia's group buying trend, and trade views across distillates, jet, fuel oil, and gasoline.

Chapters:

(01:02) Trump backs down and vessels start moving June on the Iran strike cancellation, ICE Brent's fall, and the first VLCCs exiting the Strait.

(02:35) Record 19.5mb stock draw. The market barely reacted. June on the historic combined crude and product draw and why flat price still fell to $105/bbl.

(07:35) Russia waivers and UK exemptions: what they actually mean The OFAC extension adds no new barrels. The UK diesel/jet waiver is a sign of desperation, not relief.

(12:45 ) India in focus: supply strategy, Russia dependency, and SPR plans Abhishek on India's pump price hike, Modi's demand appeals, and long-term moves to expand strategic reserves.

(19:24) Physical crude: Asia over-supplied for August June on the prompt overhang, Brent backwardation at $4.50/bbl, and why WAF grades remain undervalued.

(23:17) Distillates, jet, and gasoline: trade views Abhishek's case for July ICE gas oil cracks, bearish NWE jet, and June on Singapore 92 near 5-year highs.

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby, and James Noel-Beswick cover the stalling Iran deal, Karg Island's loading disruption, US diesel and gasoline stocks nearing commercial minimums, growing export ban risk, collapsing Brent differentials, and why the market keeps surprising on timing.

Chapters:

(01:08) Iran deal stalls and Karg Island goes quiet Neil on why the deal looks dead and what a loading stoppage at Iran's main export terminal signals.

(03:13) US product stocks and the export ban risk Diesel and gasoline near commercial minimums. Neil on why a ban could land before June.

(06:25) Distillates: jet yields, the regrade, and East West Jet yields near max, the regrade has overshot, and why James is bullish from here.

(28:50) Crude: Brent diffs collapse and China goes quiet WAF selling slowly, Chinese imports 3mbd below normal. Neil makes the case for buying Brent diffs.

(36:26) Gasoline: ARA turns cheapest, US starts to drain ARA now the cheapest global source, US stocks declining, and why 2015-style summer tightness is back.

(40:12) Getting the timing right The team reflects on why fundamentals have been right but timing wrong, and what the real trigger points are.

Neil Crosby hosts with June Goh and Jorge Molinero. Iran deal uncertainty keeps markets trading headlines as US diesel stocks head for critical lows within weeks. June covers Saudi OSPs, record Japanese US crude purchases, and TMX. Jorge runs through the ARA-PAD1 gasoline arb and GASNAP strength.

Chapters: 

(00:31) Iran deal uncertainty The market trades headlines as US policy shifts erratically and Iran's red lines stay unclear.

(04:09) US diesel stocks: weeks of runway left Commercial crude and diesel inventories are drawing at pace; a reckoning may be only weeks away.

(07:19) Physical crude: Saudi OSPs, TMX, and Japan's record US buys Saudi barrels look expensive; Japan locks in 12 million barrels of US crude for August delivery.

(15:44) Gasoline: the ARA-PAD1 arb stays open TAR remains open for refiners; GASNAP hits historical highs as East-West rebounds and naphtha softens.

(27:00) Middle distillates: East-West looks too cheap Gas oil spreads collapsed from +100 to +36 in 10 days. Neil makes the case they've overshot.

(31:20) Fuel oil and freight Sing 0.5 crack rallies to $15; VLSFO tight across Fujairah, HK, and Korea; TC14 and TD25 flagged as overvalued.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Neil Crosby, and Jorge Molinero on the crisis shifting West. Neil unpacks a 25-million-barrel US stock draw and trade ideas across Hogo, regrade, and diesel cracks. Jorge covers gasoline East-West flows and the US TAR opening.

Chapters: 

(01:20) Big picture: Iran war and the physical reset US drew 25 million barrels in one week. Neil explains why physical isn't pricing max pain yet.

(07:38) East to West: how the crisis is shifting Asia absorbed the initial shock. The US is now the story, swinging from net importer to net exporter.

(15:43) Gasoline: East-West collapse and the ARA arb Felipe and Jorge debate East-West recovery as Singapore becomes cheapest gasoline into more destinations.

(21:47) US gasoline TAR: the arbitrage is opening Net imports at seven-year lows. The ARA-to-PAD1 arb is cracking open for the first time in months.

(30:50) Middle distillates: Hogo, regrade, and deferred diesel cracks Neil makes the case for three distillates trades as US stocks approach historical lows.

(37:02) Crude: TI Brent, Brent diffs, and the flat price view TI Brent still looks like a buy. Brent physical diffs may run lower short-term.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman and June Goh cover the FT Commodities conference, where major trading house CEOs signalled no short-term resolution to Hormuz. June runs through crude premium collapse, EU sanctions, and a bullish fuel oil case into Q3.

Chapters: 

(01:04) FT Conference: No deal in sight, Russia backing Iran CEOs of Trafigura, Vitol, Mercuria and Gunvor: no short-term resolution. Mercuria's Dunand: Russia is backing Iran.

(10:20) Headlines: Hormuz stays shut and airlines start cancelling flights Ceasefire extended but Hormuz stays shut. IRGC firing on vessels. Lufthansa cancels 20,000 summer flights.

(17:11) Crude: Premiums drop $11 as China sells West African barrels Forties premiums down $11. China selling West African barrels into Asia while tapping SPR for state refiners.

(22:02) Distillates: HOGO squeeze and the East-West tug of war US diesel at five-year lows keeps HOGO supported. East-West stuck at minus 35-40 but Europe-Asia barrel fight looms.

(27:31) Gasoline and naphtha: EPA waivers, the Atlantic shift and East-West collapse Europe now cheapest into Mexico as Houston tightens. Naphtha East-West at war lows but a rebound looks likely.

(34:48) Fuel oil: Singapore tightens and Q3 VLSFO cracks are a buy Russian fuel oil propping up Singapore is set to dry up. June calls Q3 VLSFO cracks at $11 a buy.

Host Neil Crosby talks with June Goh and Michael Ryan about a week of conflicting signals on Iranian vessels, accelerating refinery run cuts across Asia, and the secondary unit squeeze nobody's talking about. The team unpacks why a peace deal wouldn't fix markets overnight, how freight rates could spike if tankers can't reposition in time, and where the real pricing action is in diesel and gasoline.

Chapters: 

(00:46) The blockade is here, but what does it actually mean?

Neil opens with the state of play after the failed peace talks, the conflicting signals on which ships are getting through Hormuz, and why owners still don't have enough clarity to act.

(04:16) Even with peace, the supply chain is broken.

June explains why a deal wouldn't fix the market overnight, with three to six months needed to rebuild logistics and reposition the VLCCs that have scattered to the US Gulf Coast.

(06:14) Asian run cuts and SPR draws are accelerating.

The team breaks down Japan's 68% utilization rate, Singapore's 50–60% runs, and China's reluctant move to tap strategic reserves.

(15:33) The secondary unit squeeze nobody's talking about.

June walks through how lower medium sour availability cascades through VGO, hydrocrackers, FCCs, and short residue units, and why Singapore bunker fuel production is at risk.

(22:25) What happens to AG freight if peace lands?

Michael lays out the scenario where a deal triggers a selloff in AG paper, but a shortage of repositioned tankers could cause rates to spike again weeks later.

(25:50) Diesel and gasoline: where the real pricing action is.

The team covers the surprise weakness in Singapore diesel, the divergence in gasoline cracks between East and West, and what it means for arb economics heading into May.

The ceasefire is two days old. Nothing has changed on the water.

Sea mines in the channel. IRGC still threatening vessels. No owners willing to move. Hormuz flows stuck below 50% for at least another month.

Paper sold off hard on the headlines. Already rebounding. Physical premiums at records across crude, naphtha, and diesel. Every risk-off dip is looking like a buying opportunity.

Chapters: 

(00:43) Ceasefire reality check

Neil sets the scene: day two of the ceasefire, sea mines in the Strait, IRGC threats to shipping, and why a tollbooth system under Iranian control is likely the only short-term path to restoring flows.

(05:02) Saudi infrastructure under fire

Phil flags attacks on the East-West pipeline and unconfirmed reports near Abqaiq, raising questions about whether rerouted Saudi crude is really safe even during a ceasefire.

(06:56) Demand destruction: price-led vs policy-led

The team maps out a two-tier system where Asia faces price-driven run cuts while Europe may need policy intervention to bring consumption down without crushing the economy.

Neil and Phil unpack why US commercial stocks are still building despite record export economics, and what SPR releases and April WTI loadings could change.

(12:09) Light ends: paper sell-off, physical strength

Jorge breaks down the $5/bbl gasoline and $40/mt naphtha corrections on East-West, why physical premiums are at record levels across all regions, and where the ARB opportunities sit.

(17:38) Crude physicals: diffs still climbing

Phil covers North Sea DFLs holding firm, West African diffs hitting new records, Aramco OSPs for May, and why Mars and Arab Light are landing at similar levels into the Far East.

(20:00) Margins and the global run cut question

The team discusses why refining margins in both Asia and Europe are under pressure, Japan's utilisation dropping into the 60% range, and how the marginal barrel economics are starting to force the run cuts the market needs.

(22:47) Distillates: risk-off noise vs physical reality

Phil walks through the $15/bbl crack correction on ceasefire headlines, why diesel East-West barely moved versus jet, and why the strongest incentive remains moving diesel to Asia as fast as possible.