Trade with Conviction

By Sparta

In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.... more

· Business

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FAQs about Trade with Conviction:

How many episodes does Trade with Conviction have?

The podcast currently has 100 episodes available.

Trade with Conviction episodes:

February 19, 2026Episode 78: Iran stretches paper markets to breaking point
In this episode of the Trade with Conviction podcast, the Sparta team breaks down what's moving oil markets, not just in Iran, but Russian crude switching, gasoline contango and beyond
Iran tensions boil while Europe doubles down on navigating with the new world order.
Gasoline spreads swing on Dangote news, heavy selling in the Sing 92 window.
Russian refinery attacks could be the start of a diesel resurgence just as swing arbs are closed into Europe.
Spot AG crude diffs likely hit a ceiling on arb econs, unless Iran tail risk is realised.
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30min
February 12, 2026 Episode 77: Live from IE Week: The battle for fundamental fair value in an age of geopolitical disruption
In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction - live from IE Week in London - the team unpacks the growing disconnect in global energy markets: clear signs of a crude glut, yet spreads remain stubbornly backwardated as geopolitics and sanctions keep traders on edge.
Chapters:
(00:17) Oil glut vs geopolitical premium
Is the surplus real? Heavy crude weakness, inventory builds, and why spreads refuse to break.
(10:38) How important are fundamentals today?
The team discuss the decrease in importance fundamentals in the market and what’s driving these changes.
(14:12) Sanctions, trade deals, and headline risk
Venezuela, Russia, India, and how bilateral politics are reshaping flows faster than fundamentals.
(19:40) Crude trade flows and WTI-Brent dislocation
Dubai weakness, Americas supply growth, freight impact, and the marginal barrel shifting west.
(22:15) Distillates and jet: Freight, Russia, and export reshuffling
US Gulf runs, diesel into Europe, jet reversals, and the gasoil East-West story.
(23:21) Gasoline and naphtha: Structural tightness vs geopolitical swings
European refinery closures, EBOB structure, component flows, and naphtha’s sanction sensitivity.
(25:35) Trade ideas: Light-heavy spreads, refinery margins, and prompt gasoline structure
Medium-term positioning and short-term conviction trades across crude and products.

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39min
February 05, 2026 Episode 76: Rising pressure on Russian oil flows
Oil markets were driven by geopolitics this week, with Iran-related headlines triggering sharp swings in price. In this episode of Trade with Conviction, the team unpacks what the latest moves mean for the oil risk premium, before turning to crude markets and India’s buying patterns, Russian supply, and Middle East replacement flows.
Chapters
(00:31) Geopolitics and the oil risk premium

Iran de-escalation headlines versus military incidents, India’s strategic role, and why crude remains headline-led into the weekend.
(09:57) Gasoline: contango, storage, and curve signals

US inventory builds, Europe’s extreme carry, and how contango is supporting the prompt while pushing risk into Q2.
(20:16) Crude: India buying, Russian supply, and Middle East barrels

Replacement economics, Saudi OSP expectations, Lunar New Year liquidity, and why AG grades are best positioned near term.
(28:23) Trade box: AG differentials bull case vs bear case

Why spot diffs could firm, what caps the upside, and how China stockbuilding complicates the outlook.
(30:30) Fuel oil and middle distillates quickfire

Venezuela’s impact on heavy molecules, Russian HSSA outlets, diesel arbs, and freight steering flows into Europe.

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35min
January 29, 2026 Episode 75: Iran risk premium, glut reality
This week’s episode breaks down a market being pulled in two directions: geopolitical risk is driving flat price higher, while physical balances and inventories still point to a long market. The team covers escalating Iran risk, renewed Venezuela uncertainty, and how shifting global politics (including India’s positioning and a weaker dollar) are shaping sentiment. From there, they dive into key product moves across gasoline, naphtha, crude, and middle distillates, highlighting where physical markets are diverging from paper, how arbitrage windows are opening and closing, and what traders should watch as weather, outages, and refinery turnarounds reshape the near-term picture.
Chapters:
(00:35) Geopolitical macro corner: Iran, Venezuela, and the risk premium
The team unpacks the latest flashpoints driving flat price, and why traders are once again at the mercy of headlines.
(04:53) Dollar weakness and the “floor” under crude
A softer dollar supports prices, but the debate is whether it’s driven by growth optimism or loss of confidence.
(07:50) Gasoline: USGC tightness, Europe vs paper, and East-West pressure
Gasoline spreads and cracks diverge across regions, with weather, blending economics, and Asian exports reshaping the map.
(14:39) Trade box: gasoline and naphtha positioning into Q2
Jorge shares two tactical ideas, plus the key risks that could challenge the setup.
(19:07) Crude: outages ease, physical weakens, and Brent looks stretched
CPC returns, differentials soften, and the team discusses why the physical market isn’t fully confirming the flat price rally.
(26:08) Middle distillates: weather-driven spike and the short HOGO debate
Heating demand and refinery constraints push cracks higher, but the trade hinges on timing, ARBs, and the next cold snap.
(31:18) Fuel oil quick fire: firmer tone but not a full bull case yet
Some clearing flows support the market, but cracks and arb signals still suggest caution.

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34min
January 22, 2026 Episode 74: Geopolitics first, balances second: What is really driving oil markets
This episode steps back from day to day price noise to examine how geopolitics is increasingly shaping oil markets across crude and products. The team unpacks the easing but unresolved US EU trade tensions, Venezuela’s uncertain return to market, and why Iran remains a background risk. From there, the discussion moves into how these geopolitical risks are keeping crude structures tight despite looser balances, before diving into physical crude flows, Indian buying behaviour, blending economics, and the knock on effects for freight and refining margins. The episode rounds out with a detailed look at distillates, gasoline, and light ends, highlighting where recent price strength is weather driven, structural, or potentially vulnerable.
Chapters:
(00:40) Geopolitical headlines and market relief
The team discusses Greenland, US EU tariff risks, and why markets are calmer but far from settled.
(07:59) Europe, alliances, and the return of great power competition
A deeper look at shifting alliances, defence spending, and why security now matters more than efficiency.
(11:51) Crude structure, outages, and balance contradictions
Why backwardation persists despite stock builds, with CPC outages and geopolitics in focus.
(16:43) Physical crude markets and Indian buying behaviour
Indian refinery strategies, blending economics, and implications for AG and Atlantic Basin flows.
(23:33) Distillates outlook: diesel and jet regain momentum
Cold weather, stock tightness, and why cracks and spreads are responding.
(28:08) Gasoline and light ends: contango and spring signals
Gasoline storage economics, Dangote delays, and early warnings from Asia.

...more
32min
January 16, 2026 Episode 73: Iran, Venezuela, Russia; the oil triple-threat
In this episode, the team breaks down how a fragile, two sided oil market is being shaped by geopolitics rather than fundamentals. With Venezuela, Iran and Russia all back in focus, they explore how sanctions risk, shifting trade flows and political uncertainty are keeping crude exposed to sharp risk rallies even as the broader balance points back towards oversupply. The conversation moves through crude and product markets, questioning whether current pricing truly reflects downside supply risk, and where traders should be most alert as seasonal and geopolitical forces collide.
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44min
January 08, 2026Episode 72: Venezuela shocks the market: heavy sour pressure and the global crude reshuffle
The team kicks off 2026 by unpacking why flat price looks deceptively calm while physical markets are quietly shifting underneath. The discussion spans Venezuelan crude disruptions and heavy sour dislocations, Saudi OSPs and a softening Asian crude complex, tumbling freight reopening arbitrage routes, and tightening signals in gasoline and light ends. Across crude, gasoline, fuel oil and distillates, the episode focuses on how barrels are being displaced rather than lost, and why geography, logistics and benchmark behaviour matter more than headline noise right now.
Key Takeaways:
Heavy sour barrels are being reshuffled globally, not removed, and the price signals reflect that
Saudi OSP cuts and Chinese quota control are weighing on Asian crude benchmarks
Freight has quietly flipped arbitrage economics across basins
Gasoline structures have gone from no outlet to every outlet in a matter of weeks
Fuel oil reacted fast to Venezuela headlines, but the fundamentals may not back it up
Diesel looks weatherproof for now, despite cold snaps and low stocks
Chapters:
(01:10) Headlines check: Venezuela and geopolitical noise
The team assesses why dramatic headlines have barely moved flat price and what really matters for physical flows.
(05:30) Heavy sour crude and displacement risks
How Venezuelan barrels, Canadian crude and China’s teapots are reshaping the heavy sour balance without creating shortages.
(07:58) Asian crude under pressure: OSPs, Dubai and China quotas
Saudi OSP cuts, a heavy Dubai structure, and why Beijing is tightening control over independent refiners.
(14:05) Gasoline and light ends: from nowhere to everywhere
Why EBOB found a floor, how storage and blending economics flipped, and where the next support could come from.
(18:28) Fuel oil reaction versus reality
High sulfur fuel oil cracks jump on headlines, but mass balance tells a different story.
(19:31) US diesel and heating oil signals
Strong runs, warm weather and resupply flows keep distillates grounded despite tight regional stocks.
(21:02) What the desk is watching next
Key benchmarks, spreads and regions to watch as geopolitics continues to test market conviction.
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24min
December 18, 2025 Episode 71: Crude tidings: Oil market wrap-up & 2026 forecast
In the final episode of the year, the team breaks down the key macro and geopolitical drivers shaping Q1 2026 and what they mean for the physical barrel. They cut through Venezuela and Ukraine headlines, softening economic signals, and growing oversupply concerns, before moving product by product: distillates enter Q1 on a tighter footing, naphtha remains volatile but structurally supported by East West pull, gasoline shifts from European tightness into contango, and crude emerges as the core problem market unless headlines force a reset.
📚 Chapters
(01:27) Headlines: Venezuela, Ukraine, Europe, and softening data
Enforcement risk, sanctions talk, and growth signals collide, with a debate on what actually moves price versus what fades.
(10:11) Distillates: 2025 rewind and Q1 diesel and jet outlook
A volatile year in diesel and jet, then a constructive Q1 case built around stocks, winter risk, and supply constraints.
(16:41) Naphtha: two halves of 2025 and why East West stays central
From early year strength to late year reshuffling, plus the structural demand pulls and key risks for Q1.
(25:00) Gasoline: Europe’s shift from tightness to contango
A year of tightening supply then returning barrels, with attention on transatlantic flow signals and refinery reliability.
(31:20) Crude: oversupply, structure, and what could force a pivot
Why balances imply pricing to store, how diffs and structure may adjust, and the potential rebalancing mechanisms to watch.

...more
40min
December 11, 2025 Episode 70: What does 2026 really look like for the oil market?
In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, the team breaks down the biggest questions shaping next year’s crude, margins, and demand outlook - and what traders should be preparing for now.
Key Takeaways:
> What is the outlook for Chinese crude imports?
> Can margins deflate or is spare capacity too tight?
> Can demand surprise to the upside?
> What do key producers do next year and how quickly can the long balance be cut down?
Chapters:
(01:35) Headlines: Tanker Seizure & Sanctions Reality Check
A breakdown of the Venezuela tanker seizure, the limited supply impact, and why the market keeps fading US sanctions risk.
(07:13) China in 2026: Imports, SPR Strategy & Demand Shift
A concise look at China’s crude demand trends, EV substitution, and whether stockbuilding could intensify if flat price falls.
(14:38) Gasoline & Fuel Oil: Seasonal Builds and Feedstock Signals
The team wraps product markets with U.S. winter gasoline builds, ARA balance, WAF flows, and fuel oil’s low-sulphur strength vs high-sulphur softness.
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23min
December 05, 2025 Episode 69: Fog of war thickens
In this episode, the team breaks down an unusually long crude market, muted price reactions to geopolitical risk, and what shifting tone from OPEC’s latest OSPs might signal for 2025. They dig into Venezuela’s political volatility and what any supply hit would really mean for global flows, alongside a US production surge driven by the Permian and Gulf of Mexico. The conversation then moves into products, where gasoline and naphtha markets show sharp regional divergences, softening cracks, and some surprising Atlantic/Asia ARB developments - painting a picture of a market well-supplied in crude but still tight and reactive in key product hubs.

Chapters
(02:17) Headlines: Ukraine, CPC attack, and geopolitical fog
Why crude barely reacted to escalating infrastructure attacks — and what this says about global length.
(07:33) Venezuela, Trump, and global crude flows
The team unpacks political threats, supply risk, and how China and US refiners would adapt.
(11:19) US supply surge and shale resilience
Record output, surprising Permian growth, and what flat rig counts reveal about producer behaviour.
(16:09) European gasoline softness and the shift to LR2s
How freight, parcel size, and WAF flows are reshaping gasoline economics.
(18:50) Gasoline: PADD 1 vs PADD 3 diverging realities
Why the US East Coast draws aren’t moving arbs — and what exporters are signalling instead
(25:01) US crude supply surge and WTI dynamics
Record Permian output, Delaware Basin growth, and why flat rigs aren’t slowing production.
How these shifts affect WTI pricing and export potential.
(34:16) Middle distillates
Regional tightness, seasonal demand, and arbitrage flows shaping market opportunities.

...more
42min

FAQs about Trade with Conviction:

How many episodes does Trade with Conviction have?

The podcast currently has 100 episodes available.