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Episode 88: The ceasefire that changed nothing. Where does oil go from here?
The ceasefire is two days old. Nothing has changed on the water.
Sea mines in the channel. IRGC still threatening vessels. No owners willing to move. Hormuz flows stuck below 50% for at least another month.
Paper sold off hard on the headlines. Already rebounding. Physical premiums at records across crude, naphtha, and diesel. Every risk-off dip is looking like a buying opportunity.
Chapters:
(00:43) Ceasefire reality check
Neil sets the scene: day two of the ceasefire, sea mines in the Strait, IRGC threats to shipping, and why a tollbooth system under Iranian control is likely the only short-term path to restoring flows.
(05:02) Saudi infrastructure under fire
Phil flags attacks on the East-West pipeline and unconfirmed reports near Abqaiq, raising questions about whether rerouted Saudi crude is really safe even during a ceasefire.
(06:56) Demand destruction: price-led vs policy-led
The team maps out a two-tier system where Asia faces price-driven run cuts while Europe may need policy intervention to bring consumption down without crushing the economy.
(08:36) US oil stocks: building when they should be drawing
Neil and Phil unpack why US commercial stocks are still building despite record export economics, and what SPR releases and April WTI loadings could change.
(12:09) Light ends: paper sell-off, physical strength
Jorge breaks down the $5/bbl gasoline and $40/mt naphtha corrections on East-West, why physical premiums are at record levels across all regions, and where the ARB opportunities sit.
(17:38) Crude physicals: diffs still climbing
Phil covers North Sea DFLs holding firm, West African diffs hitting new records, Aramco OSPs for May, and why Mars and Arab Light are landing at similar levels into the Far East.
(20:00) Margins and the global run cut question
The team discusses why refining margins in both Asia and Europe are under pressure, Japan's utilisation dropping into the 60% range, and how the marginal barrel economics are starting to force the run cuts the market needs.
(22:47) Distillates: risk-off noise vs physical reality
Phil walks through the $15/bbl crack correction on ceasefire headlines, why diesel East-West barely moved versus jet, and why the strongest incentive remains moving diesel to Asia as fast as possible.
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By SpartaThe ceasefire is two days old. Nothing has changed on the water.
Sea mines in the channel. IRGC still threatening vessels. No owners willing to move. Hormuz flows stuck below 50% for at least another month.
Paper sold off hard on the headlines. Already rebounding. Physical premiums at records across crude, naphtha, and diesel. Every risk-off dip is looking like a buying opportunity.
Chapters:
(00:43) Ceasefire reality check
Neil sets the scene: day two of the ceasefire, sea mines in the Strait, IRGC threats to shipping, and why a tollbooth system under Iranian control is likely the only short-term path to restoring flows.
(05:02) Saudi infrastructure under fire
Phil flags attacks on the East-West pipeline and unconfirmed reports near Abqaiq, raising questions about whether rerouted Saudi crude is really safe even during a ceasefire.
(06:56) Demand destruction: price-led vs policy-led
The team maps out a two-tier system where Asia faces price-driven run cuts while Europe may need policy intervention to bring consumption down without crushing the economy.
(08:36) US oil stocks: building when they should be drawing
Neil and Phil unpack why US commercial stocks are still building despite record export economics, and what SPR releases and April WTI loadings could change.
(12:09) Light ends: paper sell-off, physical strength
Jorge breaks down the $5/bbl gasoline and $40/mt naphtha corrections on East-West, why physical premiums are at record levels across all regions, and where the ARB opportunities sit.
(17:38) Crude physicals: diffs still climbing
Phil covers North Sea DFLs holding firm, West African diffs hitting new records, Aramco OSPs for May, and why Mars and Arab Light are landing at similar levels into the Far East.
(20:00) Margins and the global run cut question
The team discusses why refining margins in both Asia and Europe are under pressure, Japan's utilisation dropping into the 60% range, and how the marginal barrel economics are starting to force the run cuts the market needs.
(22:47) Distillates: risk-off noise vs physical reality
Phil walks through the $15/bbl crack correction on ceasefire headlines, why diesel East-West barely moved versus jet, and why the strongest incentive remains moving diesel to Asia as fast as possible.