Are we experiencing peak dollar as a reserve currency? In this latest episode we examine this complex but crucial question for investors, policymakers, and businesses.

With the federal deficit running at a staggering 8.8% of GDP—a level typically associated with major economic crises rather than normal times—we're witnessing what could be a pivotal moment in global finance.

The dollar's reserve status has provided America with significant advantages: lower borrowing costs and the privilege of seigniorage (essentially getting goods in exchange for printed money). Yet this same strength has gradually eroded American manufacturing competitiveness.

Looking forward, the challenges are mounting. The US needs to refinance
approximately $3 trillion in debt while managing a $1 trillion defence budget and interest costs approaching the same figure. Meanwhile, the Department of Government Efficiency programme has so far fallen short of its savings targets.

This perfect fiscal storm suggests we may see a return to quantitative easing—or to be candid "monetisation"—with governments printing money to pay bills.

While we may be witnessing the early stages of a multi-decade transition rather than an imminent collapse of the dollar system, the current situation deserves close attention from anyone concerned with global economic stability.

This Episodes Book Recommendations

Gerald suggests:
Money & Promises
by Paolo Zannoni

And George recommended:
Deceit and Self-Deception: Fooling Yourself the Better to Fool Others
by Robert Trivers

Ever wonder why smart people make irrational investment decisions? The answer lies in our psychological wiring. Loss aversion makes parting with losing investments almost physically painful, while confirmation bias ensures we only see evidence supporting our existing views. These forces work together to create a perfect storm of poor financial choices that most investors never recognise.

Gerald Ashley and George Cooper take us on a fascinating journey through the minefield of cognitive biases that sabotage our investment returns. They explore how loss aversion causes us to cling desperately to losing positions while selling winners prematurely – 'harvesting flowers while letting weeds grow'. Meanwhile, confirmation bias has us automatically seeking information that reinforces our existing perspectives while avoiding anything contradictory.

They also examine how modern technology amplifies these natural tendencies. Social media algorithms, designed to maximize engagement, feed us an endless stream of content that either confirms our existing beliefs or triggers our fears. This creates dangerous feedback loops that not only affect our investment decisions but potentially contribute to market volatility and societal polarisation.

Finally they consider happiness research from behavioural science. How the pursuit of extrinsic rewards (wealth, possessions, status) consistently fails to deliver lasting satisfaction due to hedonic adaptation – we quickly adjust to improvements in our circumstances and require ever more to maintain the same happiness level. By contrast, intrinsic pursuits like experiences, personal development, and relationships provide more sustainable wellbeing.

This Episodes Book Recommendations

Gerald suggests:
Why Most Things Fail
by Paul Ormerod 

And George recommended:
Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner's Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance
by James Montier

Are we heading toward a future underpopulation crisis instead of overpopulation?

In this episode, George Cooper and Gerald Ashley explore the far-reaching effects of a global demographic shift already in motion.

Fertility rates worldwide are plummeting below the replacement level—South Korea, for instance, is at just 0.7 children per woman, far below the 2.1 needed to sustain a population. This largely overlooked transition, overshadowed by politicians focus on short-term growth, is pushing us toward a 'demographic cliff' with profound implications.

Aging populations, like the retiring baby boomers, are increasingly dependent on shrinking workforces, putting immense pressure on retirement systems. Fewer workers are left to support a growing number of retirees who need more healthcare and resist changes to pensions.

For investors, this shift calls for a complete overhaul of asset allocation strategies.

But there’s a silver lining: a naturally shrinking global population could ease resource scarcity and environmental strain. Labour shortages might also drive up wages over time, making it easier for families to form and potentially stabilizing birth rates at a sustainable point.

Whether you’re planning for retirement, investing, or just curious about society’s future, this episode offers critical insights into one of the most transformative economic shifts we’ll face.

This Episodes Book Recommendations

Gerald went for:
Material World: A Substantial Story of Our Past and Future
by Ed Conway

And George suggested:
Gambling Man: The Wild Ride of Japan’s Masayoshi Son
by Lionel Barber