Equitile Conversations

Politics is trying to sell a story, but the gilt market is demanding a spreadsheet. We sit down with Helen Thomas from Blonde Money to make sense of a UK government that talks “continuity” while facing an approaching budget that could define its credibility with investors and voters alike. The Labour conference message may be hopeful, but the real question is what happens when big promises meet tight fiscal headroom, a restless backbench, and bond yields that do not politely wait for a ten-year plan. 

From there, we pull the focus back to financial markets. George lays out the risk of twin stresses: a corporate credit problem tied to the funding of AI and hyperscalers, and a global sovereign debt squeeze as interest rates stay higher for longer. We talk ab out what rising gilt yields really mean for refinancing, why the usual “government steps in with stimulus” playbook looks harder when states themselves are stretched, and how policy moves in the housing market can end up looking like braking and accelerating at the same time. 

Helen also argues we are living through a genuine regime shift: structurally higher inflation and higher interest rates after decades of cheap money. That pushes the debate away from central bank fixes and towards fiscal policy, spending restraint and the uncomfortable politics of austerity. We explore what this does to democratic stability, why electorates are fracturing across the West, and how the UK could find itself pulled towards an early election when governing becomes a constant negotiation. Helen suggests that a 2027 election could well lead to a hung parliament, and that a second election may be needed to try and resolve the political direction of the UK

If you find this useful, subscribe, share the show with someone who follows UK politics and markets, and leave us a review. What do you think breaks first: the political narrative, or the fiscal maths?

This Episode's Book Recommendations

Gerald

One Day in a Very Long War by John Ellis

George

Helen
We Solve Murders by Richard Osman

Gerald Ashley and George Cooper are back on Equitile Conversations after a break, and they go straight into the bond market. In short, it looks stretched. 

US debt is heading forUS$40 trillion, and at the same time the AI buildout is creating a mountain of private borrowing for data centres. That extra paper is starting to compete with US Treasuries and is pushing long yields higher. Old-fashioned crowding out, just with shinier branding.

Kevin Warsh has also dumped the Fed’s old habit of spelling out where rates are going. For years markets just priced whatever officials wanted, now Warsh wants traders to do more of the work. Cooper brings up Mervyn King’s Maradona idea: the Fed can run straight down the middle and keep policy rates fairly steady while everyone else guesses left and right and moves long rates around.

There’s a practical reason too. A lot of US debt now sits in short-term T-bills, risk hiking rates hard and the interest bill shows up almost immediately. So, letting the long end sell off allows Warsh to say the market is doing the tightening for him. Cooper thinks Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are basically working on the same messy inheritance: inflate the debt down without blowing everything up. However more short term Treasury bills means more rollover risk, especially with leveraged funds sitting on a significant chunk of them.

Markets look like they’ve noticed; Gold is moving again, the dollar is softer, commodities are stirring. That’s the debasement trade coming back — hard stuff you can’t print and that doesn’t go out of fashion. The same steeper yield curve splits stocks. Long-duration tech with huge multiples gets hit by higher discount rates. Cash-generative value names and a bunch of cheaper smaller companies — Cooper’s “anti-bubble” — look better placed.

Passive money continues to pour into the giants, so as ever the brakes are off. Adding to the mix, politicians still won’t cut spending. Federal outlays are now running at about US$7.3 trillion with a US$1.7 trillion shortfall. Elsewhere, the El Niño weather system and continuing fertilizer shortages because of the Iran conflict could add a food-price nudge.

Neither are calling for an explosion next week. Rolling everything to the front end can keep this going for a while. 

This Episode's Book Recommendations

Gerald

1873: The First Great Depression and the Making of the Modern World by Liquat Ahamed

George

The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and The Unravelling of a Wall Street Legend by Rob Copeland

Links
The US Debt Clock

In this episode of Equitile Conversations, host Gerald Ashley and George Cooper discuss central banking with macroeconomist Damien Pudner of the newly formed Great British Think Tank. The think tank aims to provide clear, independent, data-driven analysis of government spending and economic statistics drawn from official sources like the ONS and OBR, free from political spin.

The conversation centres on the Bank of England’s operational independence. While Damian supports keeping interest-rate decisions out of politicians’ hands, he argues that independence without meaningful accountability is flawed. He highlights the Bank’s major errors in 2021–22: failing to monitor the money supply, continuing large-scale QE after the initial liquidity crisis had passed, and combining this with massive fiscal transfers. The result was an avoidable inflation surge as money growth outstripped economic output.

Both George and Damian note that quantitative easing has effectively politicised central banks by creating huge fiscal benefits for governments. This has led to “fiscal dominance,” where monetary policy is increasingly constrained by unsustainable public spending. They observe a broader trend toward greater state intervention and nationalisation in both the UK and US, which they see as moving in the opposite direction to the free-market reforms needed to revive private-sector growth.

On the outlook, Damian describes the UK as already in “managed decline,” with debt interest costs exceeding £110 billion annually and nearly £3 trillion in total debt. He believes a genuine crisis is likely within 2–3 years unless radical spending cuts and policy shifts occur. While some market discipline is emerging (central banks increasing gold reserves and paying more attention to money supply), there is broad agreement that there is no painless glide path out of current imbalances.

The discussion concludes with book recommendations on risk, central banking, and demographic pressures on fiscal policy.

About Damian Pudner

Damian Pudner is an independent economist, columnist and commentator specialising in monetary policy, macroeconomics and financial markets. A former City professional with more than 25 years’ experience across investment banking and hedge funds, he is a leading advocate of monetarism and nominal GDP targeting. He has written for publications including The Critic, CapX, City A.M., The Telegraph, The Spectator and the Institute of Economic Affairs, where he authored a discussion paper on reforming Britain’s monetary framework. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Great British Think Tank, a data-driven organisation focused on government spending, waste and improving the quality of public policy debate in Britain.

Great British Think Tank

This Episode's Book Recommendations

Gerald

Against the Gods - The Remarkable Story of Risk

George

The Unanchored Central Banker - Demography, Fiscal Instability, and an Erosion of the Central Bank's Inflation-Fighting Ability

Damian

You Always Hurt the One You Love: Central Banks and the Murder of Capitalism

In this Equitile Conversations episode, Gerald Ashley and George Cooper explore inflation not as a short-term blip from the US-Iran war, but as a deeply embedded, policy-driven structural problem affecting the UK, US and global markets.

Cooper points to immediate market signals: US 30-year bond yields have climbed above 5% and UK yields are approaching 6%. With debt-to-GDP ratios now exceeding 120% in both countries, low-yield debt issued years ago is maturing and rolling over at much higher rates. This will force governments to devote a growing share of tax revenue to interest payments, crowding out other spending.

While the energy shock from the Gulf conflict is accelerating the surge, Cooper argues inflation has become normalised. Consumers now accept steadily rising prices, and producers readily pass on costs. Strategic petroleum reserves and existing pipeline stocks have delayed the full impact, but fertiliser and chemical shortages are already disrupting global planting seasons, pointing to food-price pressure over the coming year. The result is likely a multi-year rolling inflation wave.

Crucially, Cooper contends that governments no longer genuinely oppose moderate inflation. It functions as a stealth tax — imposed without legislation — that erodes the real burden of public debt and helps finance chronic deficits. Voters often welcome the accompanying rise in house and asset prices.

On investment, government bonds are dismissed as “certificates of charitable giving” — almost certain to deliver real losses. The only meaningful benchmark is delivering returns above inflation.

Politically, radical spending cuts risk tipping heavily indebted economies into a Japanese-style debt-deflation trap. Across the spectrum, both left and right have embraced interventionism; pro-growth liberalisation and deregulation are absent from the political menu.

Looking ahead, Cooper draws parallels with the 1970s “three-wave” inflation pattern. The post-lockdown surge was wave two; the current energy-driven shock is wave three. He expects inflation could peak around 9% in the next few years.

This Episodes Book Recommendations

Gerald
A History of Money: From Ancient Times to the Present Day, by Glyn Davies

George
The Death of the Left, by Simon Winlow

In this Equitile Conversations episode, hosted by George Cooper he invites Gerald Ashley and special guest Richard Knight to share their observations from recent trips to Vietnam and Argentina, contrasting them with the UK's economic performance and mindset.

Richard highlights Vietnam's striking dynamism upon arrival: modern airports far superior to those in the UK, and streets buzzing with early-morning workers earning money for upcoming holidays rather than leaving early. This reflects deferred gratification (earn first, spend later) versus the West's debt-fuelled "enjoy now, pay later" culture. Vietnam blends nominal communism with vibrant street-level capitalism: minimal visible rules or police, yet chaotic motorbike traffic flows safely through high personal responsibility. The economy feels entrepreneurial and growth-oriented, prioritising people over strict regulations or environmentalism.

Gerald notes that Argentina, once among the world's richest countries pre-WW1, now feels like a "recovering" economy, after decades of heavy socialism. It lacks Vietnam's urgency and outward trading energy, partly due to geographic isolation.

In contrast, the UK appears conservative, focused on preserving wealth, status, and ecology while adding layers of rules "for safety." Western systems smooth risks and outcomes, reducing incentives and dynamism. They both question whether cutting excessive rules could revive UK growth, or if prosperity has bred complacency.

By way of comparison the following data are cited, GDP per capita (recent figures):

UK $52,000–60,000;

Argentina $13,000–14,000;

Vietnam $4,700–5,000 (with strong 8%+ growth in 2025).

Southeast Asia shows more explosive potential than Latin America's recovery.

About Richard Knight

Richard Knight spent a career in FX markets in investment bank dealing rooms around the world. He later founded and ran a creative agency specialising on UHNW projects, and nowadays he writes on macroeconomics, and markets. His strong focus is on behavioural dynamics, and examining how incentives, perception and decision-making shape outcomes.

He combines institutional market experience with practical systems thinking.

Now largely retired from traditional roles but Richard actively trades, writes and acts as a legal expert witness in major global FX class actions.


This Episodes Book Recommendations

Gerald
Fall - The Mystery of Robert Maxwell by John Preston

Richard
Critical Mass - How One Thing Leads to Another by Phillip Ball

George
Onassis by Frank Brady

In this March 29th, 2026 episode of Equitile Conversations, Gerald Ashley and George Cooper offer a downbeat assessment of the escalating US-Iran war in the Gulf and its profound impact on global supply chains and financial markets. They describe a major negative supply shock triggered by widespread destruction of energy infrastructure, with the US reportedly planning ground troops into Iran. Oil prices spiked near US$120 per barrel before moderating above US$110 despite strategic reserve releases and temporary de-sanctioning of Russian and Iranian supplies. Fuel shortages are already appearing globally. They both warn the disruption will be durable, lasting months to possibly years, affecting not only energy but also fertilizers and agriculture. Emerging second-order effects, such as diesel and fertilizer shortages for Australian farmers, are expected to drive food price inflation with a 6–12 month lag. This points to a protracted inflationary period reminiscent of the late 1970s.

George argues that central banks should avoid hiking interest rates, as this is an exogenous shock; tightening policy risks compounding the damage by discouraging necessary investment. Despite this, the ECB is considering rate rises and the Bank of England appears uncertain. The discussion also covers ballooning US debt (now US$39 trillion), strained fiscal positions in the West, questions over AI investment viability, and geopolitical shifts. Using the physics concept of the “elastic limit,” they suggest the global order may not return to its previous state, potentially weakening US dominance and accelerating de-dollarisation.

This Episodes Recommendations

Gerald
The Beer Game

A free easy to play simulation here:
https://beergame.transentis.com/

George
Tiny Rowland – A Rebel Tycoon by Tom Bower

In this February 2026 edition of Equitile Conversations, host Gerald Ashley interviews Nic Rogers, head of research at Equitile, revisiting energy markets after their accurate 2025 call: volatile natural gas but subdued oil.

Rogers highlights a rotation toward value and "heavy asset, low obsolescence" stocks, with energy sector outperformance early in 2026, leading the S&P 500—unusual and historically bearish for other sectors. Oil majors and services firms offer strong cash flows, 5-10%+ buyback/dividend yields, low debt, and historically cheap valuations. The oil-to-gold ratio (~80:1, vs. historical ~20:1) signals extreme undervaluation; past extremes below 30:1 averaged 32% oil returns in the following year.

Bullish drivers include emerging market demand (e.g., India), potential weak dollar, geopolitical tensions (Iran, Venezuela, Russia), and limited supply growth from underinvestment (upstream capex ~36% below 2014 peaks) and high shale depletion. Offshore discoveries (Guyana, Brazil, Namibia) favour deepwater, with tight ultra-deepwater rig capacity post-Transocean/Valaris merger potentially boosting services.

Many energy analysts remain bearish (e.g., IEA glut forecasts), but markets increasingly ignore them, starting to price in a premium. A supply squeeze could surprise, especially if US shale softens.

Natural gas ties to AI/data centre power demand as a bridge fuel until nuclear scales (decades away). US LNG exports double capacity, lifting the price floor amid volatility ("widow maker"). Midstream pipelines offer stable, toll-like returns.

Coal holds approx. 28% global share, the market is Asia-centric (China uses it to firm renewables), with supply constraints in the West (e.g., Australia permitting near-zero new coal mining projects).

Overall, Rogers paints a bullish case for oil (upside surprise) and gas (rising floor despite swings), amid rotation from digital to physical assets. Coal will continue to persist longer-term.

About Nicholas Rogers

Nicholas Rogers is Head of Research at Equitile Investments, joining in 2024. With close to a decade of experience in wealth and asset management, he previously worked at several bulge bracket banks, including HSBC and Citi in Sydney, Australia. His interests lie in the commodity markets and identifying broader macroeconomic trends. 

This episodes book recommendations

Gerald
Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall

Nicholas
The Rise of Carry by Lee, Lee, and Coldiron

In the first episode of 2026, George Cooper and Gerald Ashley examine the persistent “debasement trade”: fiat money weakening while physical assets surge. They revive the “Savoy Gold Dinner ratio,” a metric from the 1970s/80s created by gold mines fund manager Julian Baring.

In August 1971—days after Nixon closed the gold window—a comparable Savoy Grill dinner cost £5.67 per head. With gold at $40/oz (£16.66/oz at the fixed rate), one ounce bought roughly 3 dinners. At their recent meal on the 7th January: The bill came to £236.32 per head (with modest wine), with gold at $4,460/oz (~£3,303/oz), yielding 14 dinners per ounce—a 4.7× gain in gold’s purchasing power over 54 fiat years. Interestingly in wage terms, the meal’s burden barely budged: 1.4 days of average weekly earnings in 1971 (at £20 a week) vs. 1.6 days today (now at £736 a week). The Savoy has kept pace with labour costs, but gold has vastly outrun inflation as a store of value.

This reflects a wider rotation: investors favour scarce physical assets—industrial metals, fertilizers, shipping, energy—over easily copied digital ones. AI commoditises software moats (e.g., image generation displacing Adobe tools; potential chip-design replication), eroding advantages for asset-light firms. Gold supplants bonds as the prime safe haven amid fiscal stress.

Governments are increasingly close to Hyman Minsky’s “Ponzi stage,” with US debt interest topping $1 trillion yearly, driving money creation that inflates tangible-asset demand. But Bitcoin, despite debasement hype, is stalling - its digital replicability (via substitutes) contrasts with bullion’s scarcity. This episode highlights a return to capital-hungry physical realities over ephemeral software.

View the article on Gerald and George's dinner at the Savoy in The Times:

https://www.thetimes.com/business/companies-markets/article/dine-out-on-gold-how-an-ounce-will-now-buy-lunch-for-14-at-the-savoy-grill-qx8hpb8rh

This episodes book recommendations

Gerald
Does God Play Dice?: The New Mathematics of Chaos by Ian Stewart

George
Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World by Jack Weatherford

In this episode George & Gerald chatted to macro economist Doug McWilliams about the perennial topic of economic growth.

Growth doesn’t arrive by accident. They dig into a concrete plan to raise living
standards in the UK by combining a simpler tax system, targeted deregulation, and policies that bring more people back into productive work, drawing on insights from a new book Prosperity Through Growth.

It’s core argument is simple: in a world where talent and capital move easily, policy mistakes get punished quickly, and clarity becomes a competitive edge.

Doug explained why a staged path to a 20% flat tax alongside the abolition of national insurance could lift output over time, and why regulation—not just its level but its instability—has become a prime drag on investment. From planning rules that stall housing to compliance costs that turn basic banking into a slog, we explore the hidden frictions that sap productivity.

At the same time, we examine demographic headwinds—ageing, low birth rates, and falling participation—and the mixed lessons from Japan on how to sustain GDP per capita through smarter labour policies.

However there are some bright spots, the UK’s flat white economy—tech and digital services—is booming, helped by freedom from restrictive EU digital acts. We ask what else could grow if given simpler, stable rules and why drifting back into heavier frameworks could undo our brightest gains.
Finally to perhaps lighten the mood, rather than the usual book recommendations, the three of them discuss their favourite cars.

About Douglas McWilliams

Douglas McWilliams most recently co-authored with Michael Hintze, Matthew Elliot and the great Art Laffer ‘Prosperity Through Growth’ about how to achieve economic growth in a world of autocracy and AI. Previously he has written the Flat White Economy, identifying the unlikely growth sector in East London, The Inequality Paradox about how globalisation has reduced poverty worldwide while at the same time raising inequality in formerly rich countries and Driving the Silk Road, about how the areas between China and the West are being affected by Chinese industrialisation – the book emerged from the Peking to Paris car rally in which he participated in a 1950s Bentley.

Douglas was the founder of Cebr which he sold the day before the 2024 Budget. Previously he had been Chief Economist for the CBI and for IBM UK. He was the Gresham Professor of Commerce 2011-13 and chaired the economics committee of Business Europe

Doug's New book - Prosperity Through Growth

Never mind beating the benchmark when the benchmark is quietly making the real decisions. Gerald Ashley and George Cooper pull back the curtain on how index choice shifts risk onto investors, fuels herding, and even distorts the wider economy. From the S&P 500’s ninefold climb to the FTSE’s more modest tripling, they unpack why “go passive” still demands a critical, high stakes decision about which index to follow and which currencies to carry.

The conversation digs into the perverse logic of bond benchmarks that allocate more money to the largest borrowers, weakening market discipline and rewarding profligacy. They explore how capweighted equity indices concentrate capital in today’s winners, raising volatility and inflating bubbles, while managers hide behind relative performance. The solution starts with a better mandate: target returns above inflation, not a promise to hug an index. That shift aligns portfolios with real world goals like retirement income and purchasing power, and it demands genuine active thinking rather than closet indexing.

Governance gets a frank assessment too. With proxy voting often outsourced,
economic priorities can be diluted by political agendas, leaving savers to fund unclear trade-offs. Gerald and George argue that if society wants cleaner air or fairer work, those costs should be priced by policy, not buried in passive voting guidelines. Yet there’s optimism: index flows have created a market split between crowded themes—think AI infrastructure—and overlooked “antibubble” assets. For investors willing to do the work, that dispersion offers real value and better odds of compounding above inflation. If you care about real returns, not just neat tracking error, this is a reframe worth your time. Follow the show, share with a friend who loves a good debate, and leave a review with your take on benchmarks—do they help you stay disciplined, or are they holding your portfolio back?

This episodes book recommendations

Gerald
The Origin Of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics

George (A film)
In Time - starring Justin Timberlake