In this Equitile Conversations episode, Gerald Ashley and George Cooper, joined by guest Michael Power, discuss the outdated term "emerging markets." 

They argue it inaccurately describes dynamic economies like China, which lead in technology and growth, while traditional "developed" markets like the US exhibit characteristics once associated with emerging markets, such as fiscal issues and currency volatility.

They criticise the reliance on indices and ETFs that oversimplify investment decisions and highlight a lack of holistic asset allocation. Power notes the variety of opportunities in so-called emerging markets, driven by long-term growth potential, and discusses de-dollarisation trends, with countries like India and the UAE trading in local currencies.

Cooper emphasises unconstrained investing, focusing on companies with strong growth in these regions.

About Michael Power

Michael Power is a prominent South African financial markets commentator and strategist, known for his extensive career in global investment, with a focus on Africa and emerging markets. His career spans several decades and includes roles at major financial institutions such as Anglo American, NM Rothschild & Sons, HSBC, and Baring Asset Management, with work in South Africa, London, and Kenya. Power’s expertise centres on geo-economics, the role of Asia in the 21st century, and Africa’s economic relationships with global markets.

This episodes book recommendations

Reflecting themes of financial history, economic dystopia, and dollar dominance challenges.

Gerald

The Railway King by Robert Beaumont

George

The Mandibles by Lionel Shriver

Michael 

Our Dollar, Your Problem by Kenneth Rogoff

equitileconversations.com

In this episode Gerald Ashley is joined by Nicholas Rogers, an equity analyst at Equitile.

They take a look at the three major energy markets of oil, natural gas and coal, which together supply up to 90% of global energy.

They discuss the current stability of oil prices despite Middle East tensions, with softening Western demand but strong Asian growth, and the importance particularly of China’s strategic oil reserves via the “Beijing put.”  And is Offshore oil’s cost-effectiveness challenging peak oil theories?

Natural gas, at 23% of global energy usage, is a key bridge fuel, with US exports reshaping European energy security post-Russia-Ukraine conflict. Asia is driving a projected 60% demand increase by 2040. A bright future for Natural Gas?

Coal, at 26% of global energy, remains critical, especially in China’s new power stations and for industrial uses, despite Western phase-outs.

The episode highlights the global economy’s reliance on fossil fuels and the priority of energy security.

About Nicholas Rogers

Nicholas Rogers is an Equity Analyst and Investment Committee member at Equitile Investments, joining in 2024. With close to a decade of experience in wealth and asset management, he previously worked at several bulge bracket banks, including HSBC and Citi in Sydney, Australia. His interests lie in the commodity markets and identifying broader macroeconomic trends. 

This episodes book recommendations

Gerald
Kings of Shanghai by Jonathan Kaufman


Nicholas
The World for Sale: Money, Power and the Traders Who Barter the Earth’s Resources by Javier Blas and Jack Farchy

In this episode of Equitile Conversations, Gerald Ashley and George Cooper discuss the mechanics and challenges of pension systems, focusing on their reliance on current workers and demographic trends. They explain that state pensions, like the UK's, are "pay-as-you-go," funded by taxing current workers rather than a saved pot of money, dispelling the myth of a personal pension fund.

Pre-funded pension schemes, where individuals save into assets like equities and bonds, also depend on future generations to buy those assets when retirees sell, creating a demographic dependency. The conversation highlights a looming crisis due to aging populations and declining fertility rates. In the UK, pensioners have risen from 13% of the population in 1975 to nearly 19% in 2024, with projections suggesting a quarter of the population will be over 65 within a decade. Low fertility rates exacerbate the issue, as fewer workers support more retirees.

The UK's "triple lock" policy, which ensures pensions rise with the highest of inflation, wage growth, or a fixed rate, further strains younger generations, who face higher taxes, student debt, and asset price challenges, reducing their ability to have children or buy assets.

Also the heavy reliance on long-dated government bonds in pension funds, driven by asset-liability matching, can be flawed due to central banks' manipulation of bond yields through quantitative easing, which distorts inflation forecasts.

Finally a look at equities being better suited for pensions as they align with inflation-driven corporate revenues. Rising bond yields and government borrowing signal future inflation, potentially eroding pension values, acting as a hidden tax.

This Episodes Book Recommendations

Gerald suggests:
Odds n Sods -  My Life in The Betting Business
by Ron Pollard

George suggests:
Riches Among the Ruins: Adventures in the Dark Corners of the Global Economy
by Robert P Smith

Are we experiencing peak dollar as a reserve currency? In this latest episode we examine this complex but crucial question for investors, policymakers, and businesses.

With the federal deficit running at a staggering 8.8% of GDP—a level typically associated with major economic crises rather than normal times—we're witnessing what could be a pivotal moment in global finance.

The dollar's reserve status has provided America with significant advantages: lower borrowing costs and the privilege of seigniorage (essentially getting goods in exchange for printed money). Yet this same strength has gradually eroded American manufacturing competitiveness.

Looking forward, the challenges are mounting. The US needs to refinance
approximately $3 trillion in debt while managing a $1 trillion defence budget and interest costs approaching the same figure. Meanwhile, the Department of Government Efficiency programme has so far fallen short of its savings targets.

This perfect fiscal storm suggests we may see a return to quantitative easing—or to be candid "monetisation"—with governments printing money to pay bills.

While we may be witnessing the early stages of a multi-decade transition rather than an imminent collapse of the dollar system, the current situation deserves close attention from anyone concerned with global economic stability.

This Episodes Book Recommendations

Gerald suggests:
Money & Promises
by Paolo Zannoni

And George recommended:
Deceit and Self-Deception: Fooling Yourself the Better to Fool Others
by Robert Trivers

Ever wonder why smart people make irrational investment decisions? The answer lies in our psychological wiring. Loss aversion makes parting with losing investments almost physically painful, while confirmation bias ensures we only see evidence supporting our existing views. These forces work together to create a perfect storm of poor financial choices that most investors never recognise.

Gerald Ashley and George Cooper take us on a fascinating journey through the minefield of cognitive biases that sabotage our investment returns. They explore how loss aversion causes us to cling desperately to losing positions while selling winners prematurely – 'harvesting flowers while letting weeds grow'. Meanwhile, confirmation bias has us automatically seeking information that reinforces our existing perspectives while avoiding anything contradictory.

They also examine how modern technology amplifies these natural tendencies. Social media algorithms, designed to maximize engagement, feed us an endless stream of content that either confirms our existing beliefs or triggers our fears. This creates dangerous feedback loops that not only affect our investment decisions but potentially contribute to market volatility and societal polarisation.

Finally they consider happiness research from behavioural science. How the pursuit of extrinsic rewards (wealth, possessions, status) consistently fails to deliver lasting satisfaction due to hedonic adaptation – we quickly adjust to improvements in our circumstances and require ever more to maintain the same happiness level. By contrast, intrinsic pursuits like experiences, personal development, and relationships provide more sustainable wellbeing.

This Episodes Book Recommendations

Gerald suggests:
Why Most Things Fail
by Paul Ormerod 

And George recommended:
Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner's Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance
by James Montier

Are we heading toward a future underpopulation crisis instead of overpopulation?

In this episode, George Cooper and Gerald Ashley explore the far-reaching effects of a global demographic shift already in motion.

Fertility rates worldwide are plummeting below the replacement level—South Korea, for instance, is at just 0.7 children per woman, far below the 2.1 needed to sustain a population. This largely overlooked transition, overshadowed by politicians focus on short-term growth, is pushing us toward a 'demographic cliff' with profound implications.

Aging populations, like the retiring baby boomers, are increasingly dependent on shrinking workforces, putting immense pressure on retirement systems. Fewer workers are left to support a growing number of retirees who need more healthcare and resist changes to pensions.

For investors, this shift calls for a complete overhaul of asset allocation strategies.

But there’s a silver lining: a naturally shrinking global population could ease resource scarcity and environmental strain. Labour shortages might also drive up wages over time, making it easier for families to form and potentially stabilizing birth rates at a sustainable point.

Whether you’re planning for retirement, investing, or just curious about society’s future, this episode offers critical insights into one of the most transformative economic shifts we’ll face.

This Episodes Book Recommendations

Gerald went for:
Material World: A Substantial Story of Our Past and Future
by Ed Conway

And George suggested:
Gambling Man: The Wild Ride of Japan’s Masayoshi Son
by Lionel Barber