Plausibly Deniable

Escaping The IQ Shredder: with Spandrell


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Spandrell joins us to explain the “IQ Shredder”: how successful cities attract ambitious, intelligent people from across the world, place them into a hypercompetitive rat race, and then make it nearly impossible for them to reproduce.

We discuss why fertility is collapsing across virtually every developed society, whether Israel has escaped the trend, why financial incentives have repeatedly failed, and what governments could realistically do to make family formation prestigious again.

Spandrell also explains Bio-Leninism—his theory of how political systems recruit people with few alternatives and convert personal disadvantage into institutional loyalty. We connect it to the strange people selected by modern politics, why competent people tend to leave government, and why the political right struggles to build a durable machine.

Later, we get into Spandrell’s life in Japan and China, how China changed under Xi Jinping, the decline of Twitter, the possible return of long-form blogging, Substack’s monetization advantage, Urbit’s future, AI-assisted development, and why Chinese companies can conquer entire industries without making their shareholders rich.

https://spandrell.com

Sponsored by:

Polymarket: https://polymarket.com

Zcash: https://z.cash

CitizenX: https://citizenx.com

Network Press: https://network.press

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Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org

Extra content: https://substack.com/@plausiblydeniable

Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ

Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore

Spandrell: https://x.com/spandrell4

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Plausibly DeniableBy Lukas and Saila