Plausibly Deniable

Lukas is still in Rome, and he and Saila start with tennis, the USTA days and why one-on-one sports beat team sports, why youth sports even have subs, and why zoomers say "brutal" about everything. They cover pickup clips and whether anything real survives a camera, the great log-off that never comes, taxing unrealized capital gains and the K-shaped economy, the origin of "below my line," Peter Thiel moving to Argentina, why nobody ever actually leaves Twitter, a boomer who starts a fight at a gas station and loses, suicidal motorcyclists, headlights that are out of control (and work like lawyers), merch made in China and tagged in Italy, why the reorder is never the same product, 2% Europe, the slippery slope as a law of nature, a Roman Airbnb host who wanted cash in hand, picking your dystopia by how many years in the past you want to live, and a $500 dinner called a hobby. Plus: re-anonymizing.

Bonus episodes on Substack: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.com/podcast

Sponsored by:

Polymarket: https://polymarket.com

Zcash: https://z.cash

CitizenX: https://citizenx.com

Passage Press: https://passage.press

⸻

Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ

Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore

Timestamps:

00:00 The Fallacy Of The Slippery Slope Fallacy: Cold open

00:21 Welcome back: tennis and the USTA days

01:15 Why one-on-one sports beat team sports

04:46 What compels anyone to play on the line?

08:02 Hockey is 80% mental AFK

09:01 Baseball: if you're not the pitcher, snooze

10:15 Why do youth sports even have subs?

11:51 Why zoomers say "brutal"

14:32 Conversations as turn-based combat

15:00 Pickup artistry is like scam calls

16:30 Bobby Fischer and memorized social lines

18:28 The great log-off that never comes

19:14 Good weather, better mood

20:54 Nobody makes the "I don't care about you" argument

21:55 Let me be an ugly woman to politicians

22:52 Taxing unrealized capital gains

25:50 Republicans win low income, Democrats win high income

27:55 The K-shaped economy meta bit

30:12 The origin of "below my line"

31:25 We're re-anonymizing

33:14 Sponsors: Zcash, for when you need to re-undox yourself

33:50 Hitting every sponsor: Polymarket, CitizenX, Passage Press

35:24 Don't call them books

35:46 Peter Thiel moving to Argentina was a warning

37:40 Nobody ever actually leaves Twitter

39:13 The boomer who started a fight at a gas station

43:28 Suicidal motorcyclists

45:59 California's environmental case for lane splitting

46:38 The headlights are out of control

47:59 David Goggins, doomscrolling at 3:30 a.m.

51:13 Headlights are like lawyers

52:08 The permanent underclass can't afford headlights

52:24 A government hater begging for regulation

56:25 "This is a battle vehicle": reflashing the ECU

57:15 Merch: Italian vs. Chinese suppliers

58:02 Made in China, tagged in Italy

59:26 Why the reorder is never the same product

01:00:19 300% marked-up Adidas sneakers

01:02:44 Can we just do 2% Europe?

01:03:33 Slippery slope is a law of nature

01:06:01 Voter ID and the naked voting booth

01:07:01 Opportunity cost is negative for most people

01:08:52 The Airbnb host who wanted cash in hand

01:12:57 The greatest Airbnb guest in the universe

01:13:16 Gender discourse is truly American

01:14:33 Pick your dystopia: America is 20 years ahead of Europe

01:17:11 Time-traveling to Chile

01:18:48 Off camera and still placebomaxxing

01:22:33 Priced out of her favorite hobby: eating out

01:24:55 A 3% employee wellbeing charge, 20% gratuity, then tip

01:26:16 Made-up Reddit posts about real people

01:27:51 Three accounts run the Reddit-to-Twitter pipeline

01:29:43 VC Twitter's new favorite word

01:31:47 The goated pickup line in Italy: "Do you speak English?"

01:33:12 Outro

Lukas checks in from Rome, where it took 90 minutes to not buy a blender, and he and Saila get into when you actually become old, what it does to your psyche to live next to the ruins of a great civilization, why Americans think European women are more attractive, and why nobody in Rome blames you for Trump. They cover becoming ideologically old and no longer believing polls, the creatine study and visualizing your workouts, how to ask for advice (and why you're old once nobody can give you any), why tech has young CEOs, a cold hatred for lawyers, AI-built video games and why god mode ruins Minecraft, the labor theory of meaning and a defense of hazing, freedom of association, Steve Jobs and fasting versus cancer (not medical advice), why nobody trusts a data scientist, disclaimers, and pitch decks sent as Word docs with no words. Plus: placebomaxxing.

Bonus episodes on Substack: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.com/podcast

Sponsored by:

Polymarket: https://polymarket.com

Zcash: https://z.cash

CitizenX: https://citizenx.com

Passage Press: https://passage.press

⸻

Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ

Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore

Timestamps:

00:00 Placebomaxxing: Cold open

00:19 Welcome back: Lukas checks in from Rome

00:38 90 minutes to not buy a blender

04:27 When do you become old? 30 vs. 27

07:01 Rome is walkable, technically

08:03 Living next to the ruins of a great civilization

11:50 A theory on why European women are so attractive

13:42 Italian women and the Japanese leaf girl

15:30 The appeal of the tsundere

16:51 Nobody in Rome blames you for Trump

18:05 We disagree on everything, even pasta

20:51 Nobody in the Mediterranean wants to do anything

21:31 Locked out of the apartment for hours

24:24 Rome in the pandemic: "God bless Fauci"

26:00 Becoming ideologically old

28:19 The creatine study and lean tissue mass

32:41 Manifestation on the plane to Beijing

33:26 The only advice that's 100% true

35:12 People who talk to their younger self through you

36:26 How to ask for advice

40:23 You're old when nobody can give you advice

42:11 Corporate ladders and boomers who won't retire

43:19 Why tech has young CEOs

45:41 Send us your advice questions

46:13 The trad Catholic longhouse era

48:52 Cold hatred for lawyers

51:11 Nobody will ever fix the lawyer problem

52:28 AI video games and personal software

54:07 God mode ruins Minecraft

57:09 The labor theory of meaning

57:56 In defense of hazing

59:00 Frat hazing vs. basic training

01:00:36 What military officers think of frat hazing

01:02:31 Freedom of association fixes 90% of problems

01:03:19 Like a nature documentary: women vs. women

01:05:34 Vaporizing dinner in a lidless Airbnb pot

01:06:33 Rome is shockingly expensive

01:08:27 Placebomaxxing

01:09:24 Steve Jobs and the cancer counterexample

01:11:24 Fasting your way out of cancer (not medical advice)

01:13:50 Nobody likes a data scientist

01:14:53 The lost Tracing Woodgrains episode: do disclaimers work?

01:16:24 "This is financial advice": SpaceX

01:17:01 Pitch decks as Word docs with no words

01:18:00 Outro

Lukas and Saila talk about the quiet Greenland deal and why winning in private beats winning in public, from Trump's negotiating style and Israel–Palestine dealmaking to affirmative action, BLM and why you should always give your enemy a line of retreat (and never win the breakup). They cover the most egregious Facebook Marketplace lowball, Peter Thiel's media training and his AfD disavowal, why nobody knows what they like, political compass test season, the tariff panic in hindsight, Truth Social as a strategy, looksmaxing's bodybuilding-forum origins, why surgery is basically construction work, LLMs that can't read your budget, and old Minecraft versus new Minecraft in peaceful mode.

Sponsored by:
Polymarket: https://polymarket.com
Zcash: https://z.cash
CitizenX: https://citizenx.com
Passage Press: https://passage.press

⸻

Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org
Our tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/

Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ
Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore

Timestamps:

00:00 Be careful what you wish for: Cold open
00:21 Welcome back: Greenland and the quiet Arctic deal
02:46 The power of doing things in silence
04:41 Celebrity culture and the omni-cause
05:05 Why public wins make real deals harder
07:08 Affirmative action vs. BLM
07:54 Always give your enemy a line of retreat
08:31 Never win the breakup
09:55 Crazy anchors and lowballing
10:41 The most egregious Facebook Marketplace lowball
12:07 Bored in San Francisco: the Sephora encounter
14:20 God mocks the desperate
14:42 Peter Thiel's latest podcast
15:55 "Is humanity worth saving?"
17:12 Thiel's media training kicks in
18:56 What do you mean by "the ant colony"?
19:41 Thiel vs. the AfD
20:12 Disavowing someone more radical than you
21:15 Richard Spencer's 5D chess
22:38 Decoding billionaire PR
23:21 Why some episodes get likes and others don't
25:02 Guest episodes vs. just us
25:51 Audiences don't know what they like
27:12 Hate-commenters are your biggest fans
27:39 You asked for an outro
28:30 Intro music and the car-crash beat
30:08 Political test season
31:18 Why the neutral answer is the based answer
33:38 I'm politically Bill Gates
34:41 Badly designed survey questions
35:06 Designing the PD political test
36:23 Negative valence theory
36:37 The tariff panic in hindsight
37:22 Trump should endorse weird historical ideas
39:42 "They're splitting the atoms"
40:34 Trump's post-presidency reality show
41:12 The simulation's irony meter
42:04 Norm Macdonald couldn't compete
42:44 Truth Social as a masterstroke
43:32 Bluesky, Truth Social and politics-only feeds
44:15 It's not a tweet, it's a truth
45:16 Why we're not suited for real power
45:35 Selling a sponsorship for "Plausibly Deniable"
46:22 Looksmaxing's bodybuilding-forum origins
48:00 The looks-optimized gym routine
49:24 Just don't be fat
49:46 Surgery is construction work
51:21 Surgery solves everything: hair transplants in Turkey
52:08 Price vs. quality in surgery
53:19 Be your own expert
53:52 LLMs as Reddit experts
54:14 How do you find a good surgeon?
55:01 LLMs can't read your budget: the $2,000 screwdriver
57:32 Old Minecraft vs. new Minecraft
58:31 The peaceful mode guy
59:58 The chicken tunnel and the egg painting
01:00:45 Halo, the Flood and 11 years of fear
01:01:55 Zombie nightmares
01:02:27 The old-Minecraft modpack opportunity
01:03:26 The old Minecraft music
01:04:21 Peaceful mode forever
01:05:00 Outro

Lukas and Saila talk about geopolitics, technology, culture, and modern life with Noah Smith. They discuss the U.S.–China rivalry, drone warfare, public opinion, political polarization, and how social media fueled woke-era cancellation campaigns. The conversation turns to AI's impact on research, entry-level work, corporate trust, and manufacturing, before exploring dating, intimacy, short-form video, status, creativity, and angel investing. Along the way, they trade stories about Japan, fountain pens, praying mantises, and the strange incentives of online life.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press___________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscoreNoah: https://x.com/Noahpinion[TIMESTAMPS]00:00 Opening teaser and introducing Noah Smith00:30 From blogger to pundit and Substack success03:55 A fake U.S. embassy in Taiwan05:38 Did Japan peak in the 2000s?06:42 Fountain pens and expensive tastes09:40 The strange economics of luxury goods10:32 U.S.–China rivalry and broken alliances12:05 The “porcupine and decouple” strategy13:47 Drones and the defense of smaller nations15:06 Why superpowers avoid costly wars16:25 Whose public opinion matters?18:40 Israel–Palestine and American political divisions20:06 China's elite conflicts and military purges22:47 The 48-hour window for military operations23:25 China's White Paper protests and lockdowns25:30 How authoritarian leaders respond to dissent27:25 American alliances and political fragmentation28:30 Centralized versus distributed power30:50 Wartime powers and national unity33:12 How Chinese and Americans see each other34:55 Anti-Indian sentiment and regional grievances36:02 Cancel culture as a status competition38:39 How technology empowered cancel mobs41:05 The historical roots of woke ideology44:23 How social media collapsed cultural boundaries47:43 Defining woke and the limits of cancellation49:58 Noah joins a cancel mob52:24 When culture-war beliefs become policy54:36 Mississippi literacy reforms and luxury beliefs56:17 Why so few cancellation targets fought back58:10 Sincere beliefs and ideological contradictions01:00:05 Defining racism and rhetorical power01:02:30 AI-generated illustrations versus Excel charts01:03:30 Can AI accelerate its own development?01:04:14 AI coding and technical debt01:05:45 Will AI eliminate junior jobs?01:06:10 Lessons from 1980s Japanese employment01:08:00 Workplace trust and AI-powered generalists01:10:06 AI fraud, KYC and enduring companies01:12:23 Japanese small businesses and solopreneurs01:14:24 Labor hoarding and “messy jobs”01:16:10 Robots, factories and economies of scale01:18:00 AI moats and the return of physical capital01:19:14 Billionaires, status and shitposting01:20:54 Praying mantises and “nature is healing”01:24:05 Viagra, dopamine and libido01:26:06 Can technology solve sexual problems?01:28:05 Dating apps and extended adolescence01:30:10 Can tech sustain desire in long relationships?01:32:06 Artificial intimacy versus real love01:33:55 The short-form video “rapture”01:35:23 Why endless scrolling lowers quality01:36:50 Attention spans and entertainment fast food01:38:23 Books, artistic taste and status games01:40:07 Can we ever know someone's real motives?01:42:53 AI startups Noah has invested in01:45:05 Angel investing as a social activity01:46:35 Managing risk in angel investing01:48:12 Online avatars and bisexuality jokes01:51:30 Closing remarks

Lukas and Saila talk about geopolitics, technology, culture, and modern life with Noah Smith. They discuss the U.S.–China rivalry, drone warfare, public opinion, political polarization, and how social media fueled woke-era cancellation campaigns. The conversation turns to AI's impact on research, entry-level work, corporate trust, and manufacturing, before exploring dating, intimacy, short-form video, status, creativity, and angel investing. Along the way, they trade stories about Japan, fountain pens, praying mantises, and the strange incentives of online life.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press___________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscoreNoah: https://x.com/Noahpinion[TIMESTAMPS]00:00 Opening teaser and introducing Noah Smith00:30 From blogger to pundit and Substack success03:55 A fake U.S. embassy in Taiwan05:38 Did Japan peak in the 2000s?06:42 Fountain pens and expensive tastes09:40 The strange economics of luxury goods10:32 U.S.–China rivalry and broken alliances12:05 The “porcupine and decouple” strategy13:47 Drones and the defense of smaller nations15:06 Why superpowers avoid costly wars16:25 Whose public opinion matters?18:40 Israel–Palestine and American political divisions20:06 China's elite conflicts and military purges22:47 The 48-hour window for military operations23:25 China's White Paper protests and lockdowns25:30 How authoritarian leaders respond to dissent27:25 American alliances and political fragmentation28:30 Centralized versus distributed power30:50 Wartime powers and national unity33:12 How Chinese and Americans see each other34:55 Anti-Indian sentiment and regional grievances36:02 Cancel culture as a status competition38:39 How technology empowered cancel mobs41:05 The historical roots of woke ideology44:23 How social media collapsed cultural boundaries47:43 Defining woke and the limits of cancellation49:58 Noah joins a cancel mob52:24 When culture-war beliefs become policy54:36 Mississippi literacy reforms and luxury beliefs56:17 Why so few cancellation targets fought back58:10 Sincere beliefs and ideological contradictions01:00:05 Defining racism and rhetorical power01:02:30 AI-generated illustrations versus Excel charts01:03:30 Can AI accelerate its own development?01:04:14 AI coding and technical debt01:05:45 Will AI eliminate junior jobs?01:06:10 Lessons from 1980s Japanese employment01:08:00 Workplace trust and AI-powered generalists01:10:06 AI fraud, KYC and enduring companies01:12:23 Japanese small businesses and solopreneurs01:14:24 Labor hoarding and “messy jobs”01:16:10 Robots, factories and economies of scale01:18:00 AI moats and the return of physical capital01:19:14 Billionaires, status and shitposting01:20:54 Praying mantises and “nature is healing”01:24:05 Viagra, dopamine and libido01:26:06 Can technology solve sexual problems?01:28:05 Dating apps and extended adolescence01:30:10 Can tech sustain desire in long relationships?01:32:06 Artificial intimacy versus real love01:33:55 The short-form video “rapture”01:35:23 Why endless scrolling lowers quality01:36:50 Attention spans and entertainment fast food01:38:23 Books, artistic taste and status games01:40:07 Can we ever know someone's real motives?01:42:53 AI startups Noah has invested in01:45:05 Angel investing as a social activity01:46:35 Managing risk in angel investing01:48:12 Online avatars and bisexuality jokes01:51:30 Closing remarks

Lukas and Saila talk about everything from the philosophy of saying “I suppose,” cardio mishaps, Costco obsession, and the absurdity of livestreaming everyday life to crypto jealousy, resentment toward data centers, and the importance of admitting your insecurities. They explore AI-generated websites, movie criticism, social media hot takes, political opinions, crypto trading patterns, lawyers and professional gatekeeping, and the strange economics of modern white-collar work. They also discuss podcast sponsorships, New Hampshire, unconventional firearm designs, Chinese memecoin culture, Korean speculation, and the growing fear of being financially left behind.TimestampsSponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore 00:00 Crypto, China, and lawyers: Cold open00:40 Welcome and the philosophy of “I suppose”02:10 Parenting, creativity, and vague answers05:05 Cardio, concussions, and instant karma06:45 Walking desks and Costco livestreams09:40 Costco bargains and “father brain”11:10 Shrimp deals and imaginary sponsorships13:00 Crypto sellouts and AI-generated hype15:00 The jealousy behind anti-crypto sentiment16:15 Data centers and hidden motives19:00 Just admit you’re insecure22:00 Eye-drop ads and the podcast’s female audience23:50 AI websites and podcast branding27:10 The Joker, moviegoers, and film criticism32:10 Hot takes on videos nobody watched35:00 Contrarianism as a podcasting strategy36:05 What even counts as a “take”?37:10 Protest interviews and borrowed opinions38:20 Retroactive product placement and ads41:00 Crypto price patterns versus astrology44:00 Why lawyers are unavoidable45:05 Legal billing and Claude-generated invoices48:00 Piracy lawsuits as subscription sales49:00 Eye doctors and contact lens prescriptions50:00 Bankers versus financial advisers51:00 The hidden cost of sitting on cash52:20 Resenting products people actually need56:00 Can a flooring store sponsor a podcast?59:15 The podcast that helped sell a New Hampshire house01:04:00 Kel-Tec and unconventional folding firearms01:07:00 Bullpups and the one-gun fantasy01:08:00 What if podcasts were nothing but ads?01:09:00 Why China missed the memecoin craze01:10:00 American and Chinese investors hype each other01:11:00 South Korea’s speculative trading culture01:12:00 Leverage, risk, and financial FOMO01:13:00 The fear of falling behind financially01:14:10 Closing thoughts and outro

Lukas and Saila talk about political ideology, sacred beliefs, cultural shifts, and the changing nature of social norms with Oliver. They explore the rise and decline of wokeness, political tribalism, status competition, the influence of social media on democracy, and why people change their political allegiances. The conversation also covers academic freedom and tenure, modern dating and relationships, AI alignment and existential risk, the future of writing and journalism, AI-generated content, and why universities function more as credentialing institutions than places of learning.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Oliver: https://x.com/olivertraldi00:00 Writing a book with AI and the urban-rural divide03:00 What causes sudden changes in social norms?06:00 Fraud, reputation and changing standards09:00 Generational grievances and historical injustice12:00 Sacred beliefs and how people defend them15:00 Where do sacred beliefs come from?18:00 Political betrayal and identity21:00 Why shrinking movements become more extreme24:00 Wokeness, fashion and cultural trend cycles27:00 Politics as a popularity contest30:00 Modernity and the disappearance of shared reality33:00 Are ordinary people actually ideological?36:00 Why political polling can be misleading39:00 The illusion of precision in social science42:00 Democracy, populism and political language45:00 Blaming capitalism for everything48:00 Why political movements feel powerful and powerless51:00 The uncomfortable consequences of winning54:00 Influencers, politicians and the power of content57:00 Democracy, monarchy and social media01:00:00 Why music producers matter more than artists01:03:00 Political entrepreneurs and ideological movements01:06:00 Why people abandon their political tribes01:09:00 Crime, enforcement and changing social norms01:12:00 Incentives, policing and institutional loyalty01:15:00 Why intellectual theories rarely produce practical advice01:18:00 Does academic tenure actually protect free speech?01:21:00 The trade-offs of working in academia01:24:00 Academic perks and professor-student relationships01:27:00 Tenure, risk-taking and personal freedom01:30:00 Regulating relationships and the legacy of MeToo01:33:00 Why modern dating resembles online shopping01:36:00 Smartphones, relationships and declining fertility01:39:00 AI, life extension and the future of humanity01:42:00 AI doomers and the limits of existential risk arguments01:45:00 Why nobody agrees on what AI alignment means01:48:00 AI safety careers and avoiding responsibility01:51:00 Risk tolerance and attitudes toward human extinction01:54:00 Personal brands and the future of journalism01:57:00 Why technology destroys the value of media02:00:00 When people will work for free02:03:00 AI as the ultimate personal librarian02:06:00 What skills do we lose when AI does our thinking?02:09:00 Researching an entire book with AI02:12:00 AI writing, obesity research and information overload02:15:00 The strange language patterns of AI writing02:18:00 Em dashes, semicolons and detecting AI text02:21:00 AI creativity and bizarre literary metaphors02:24:00 Why knowing something is AI-generated changes its value02:27:00 Substack, readership and writing for yourself02:30:00 The best and worst parts of being an academic02:33:00 Is college about education or getting a job?02:36:00 Why credentials matter more than learning02:39:00 Prestige, compensation and alternative credentials02:42:00 The University of Austin and the economics of education02:45:00 Final reflections and where to find Oliver02:48:00 Outro and audience questions

Lukas and Saila talk about absurdly long game release timelines, predicting movies before they exist, why “deny, deny, deny” and strategic dishonesty increasingly go unpunished, AI safety messaging and media incentives, technological pessimism and Ted Kaczynski’s critique of modernity, LASIK and cosmetic surgery, American healthcare and tort law, Social Security and voting incentives, and Roy Lee’s viral marketing strategy.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore 00:00 Why “deny, deny, deny” works00:43 Announcing games years before release03:02 Half-Life 3 and rating unreleased movies06:00 Predicting movies before they even exist07:32 Race-science jokes, engines and deer09:47 Belle Delphine bathwater and false advertising12:10 Turning lawsuits into marketing13:00 Spending habits and secret purchases14:33 Why lying can work forever16:36 The post-manners society17:52 Politics, academia and normalized dishonesty20:43 AI watermarks and hidden detection23:41 The AI safety media machine25:13 Manufactured narratives vs latent demand28:31 Techno-optimism and the “magic supercomputer”30:27 Technology as a monkey’s paw33:18 High IQ, cities and retreating from technology35:30 Writing letters to Ted Kaczynski37:52 Usury, sponsors and hiring your critics40:26 AI doom messaging and crying wolf43:34 Safety theater and AI regulation45:38 Cardio, modern life and accidental exercise48:42 LASIK fears and surgical complications51:07 Superstition vs materialism53:11 Personality tests and positive affirmations55:55 Rome, travel and livestreaming everything57:53 Fear of AI and safety-industry incentives01:00:11 Mechanistic interpretability, LARPing and lying01:03:25 Podcast redesign and resistance to change01:05:39 Surgery becomes precision engineering01:08:44 Fillers vs implants and facial movement01:11:45 The eyelid injury and surgical costs01:15:39 American healthcare and tort law01:18:29 Healthcare limits and boomer Social Security01:21:08 Taxation, voting and political incentives01:22:20 Roy Lee and viral startup marketing01:24:57 Outro

Matthew Peterson, founder of FORUM and The American Mind, joins Lukas and Saila to discuss the fights inside the Trump coalition, why Silicon Valley hasn't won over the populists, and what right-wing media would look like if it cared about building things. They get into FORUM's Joe Lonsdale–Joe Allen debate, the resentment behind the data-center backlash, AI as empowerment or centralized control, privacy, regulation, and whether the government ends up with its own frontier lab.

The conversation also covers Peterson's route through academia, Claremont, New Founding, and Blaze; corporate sponsors and schizophrenic mortgages; winning elections versus posting based edits; AI overemployment reality TV; edgelord MrBeast; political dating shows; audience capture; the management theory of chads and autists; Trump and Elon; Alex Jones as a symbol of vitality; what think tanks actually do; AI reviving a real liberal arts education; capitalism with American characteristics; and why young people want something worth building

Sponsored by:
Polymarket: https://polymarket.com
Zcash: https://z.cash
CitizenX: https://citizenx.com
Passage Press: https://passage.press

Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org
Bonus episodes + every new release by email: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.com

Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ
Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore
Matthew Peterson: https://x.com/docMJP

Timestamps:
00:00 — Saila would like less privacy
00:32 — Welcome and sponsors
01:55 — FORUM and the arguments the right needs to have
05:03 — Silicon Valley donations and the protection racket
09:13 — Inside FORUM: Yarvin, Lonsdale, and Joe Allen
13:55 — Where does the right stand on AI?
17:06 — The data-center backlash isn't really about water
20:33 — Unemployment, coronavirus 7, and AI's sales pitch
23:58 — Centralized AI and the cost of private compute
26:30 — Does anyone actually care about privacy?
30:08 — AI training data and the copyright argument
33:17 — The cloud got expensive; hardware got interesting
34:49 — Would AI regulation just create more middlemen?
38:55 — The government's inevitable frontier lab?
42:20 — Government competence, the CIA, and DOGE
47:55 — From academia to Claremont, New Founding, and Blaze
53:25 — Frontier and the business of right-wing media
58:02 — Advertising agencies, Bud Light, and the corporate bubble
1:01:11 — ICE videos and the politics of bad optics
1:04:29 — Do you want to win or post based edits?
1:05:45 — AI overemployment: the reality show
1:08:54 — Edgelord MrBeast takes over the galaxy
1:09:55 — Political dating shows and ideological trigger words
1:12:28 — Stop dissenting and start building
1:15:33 — Why media is illegible to capital
1:20:37 — AI local reporting and the missing content aggregator
1:25:17 — Audience capture and the cost of going viral
1:28:15 — Hollywood has lost the mandate of heaven
1:31:39 — Celebrity worship and ironic photos
1:37:59 — Why the sycophantic commenter is your favorite
1:40:49 — The management theory of chads and autists
1:45:37 — Finding talent instead of protecting your job
1:48:50 — Alex Jones as a symbol of life and vitality
1:55:11 — What do think tanks actually do?
2:01:00 — Don't meet your heroes; they might want to sleep with you
2:04:24 — Tenure and the collapse of professional prestige
2:07:35 — AI teachers and the return of a real education
2:11:17 — The Iliad, monster porn, and the death of the middle
2:13:08 — Learn to code meets the automation of bullshit jobs
2:14:53 — AI doing your taxes justifies the data centers
2:16:38 — What if bureaucracy is the point?
2:18:13 — Capitalism with American characteristics
2:20:07 — Tariffs, the Homestead Act, and economics beyond GDP
2:24:36 — The anti-Bush hippie who wanted lower taxes
2:28:24 — Hamilton Society debates and the big red button
2:30:00 — Politicians need live audience feedback
2:33:38 — Zoomers, public service, and the broken system
2:39:08 — The imaginary internet villain versus actual people

Lukas and Saila talk about product reviews and Costco bulk buying, AI safety and political burnout, Middle East news and the Lindsay Clancy trial, how people evaluate medicine and scientific evidence, podcast analytics and consumer behavior, crypto and the Clarity Act, jury trials, cooking, sun exposure, fishing, and the very different cultures of YouTube and X.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore 00:00 Why going outside is dangerous01:12 Product reviews, sponsors and bad products03:03 Reviewing the Tri Blue scalp cleanser05:53 Scalp tension and “one big problem”07:45 Costco, bulk buying and natural soap11:18 Water filtration and optimizing showers12:17 How upgrades ruin ordinary experiences14:09 Why online debates have become exhausting16:35 AOC, Rubio and “serious” politicians18:44 Political burnout and the Iran war20:01 Houthis, Saudi forces and Middle East absurdity21:51 The Lindsay Clancy juror controversy24:20 Starbucks, normies and “touch grass”25:41 What normal people think about AI safety27:20 Anthropic, IPO incentives and AI spending28:31 Regulatory capture and AI safety scares30:19 Why actionable topics beat grand debates31:33 Calls to action, subscriptions and selling knowledge32:00 Tai Lopez, books and knowledge LARPing33:08 Timeless episodes vs current-event content34:13 Crypto gains, watches and better uses of money36:31 Status anxiety and expensive watches37:35 Surgery reviews and fear of rare outcomes40:00 User error, contraception and bad statistics41:51 Mechanisms vs correlation in modern science43:30 Trusting doctors and personalized judgment45:13 Shorter episodes, retention and production value46:59 Consumers don’t know what they want47:57 Kickstarter and the reversal of customer risk49:57 Anonymity, the penguin and online identity50:49 Crypto markets and the Clarity Act52:18 Jury trials and demographic incentives53:30 Searching for better “normie” topics54:55 Chicken cooking and simple food57:32 Costco carrots and the anti-outdoors bit59:37 Sun exposure and avoiding peak UV01:00:30 Fishing as prehistoric gambling01:02:00 Fishing regulars and local expertise01:04:02 Fun, short-form video and calls to action01:05:21 YouTube comments vs X01:06:55 “Heaven banning” and platform culture01:08:02 Big Chicken, sponsors and post-credit bits