R. Khorchani -Evaluation of human resources needed and comparison with HR available to control FMD by European Commission for the Control of FMD

S. Watson -Developing an analytical model to predict FMD vaccine demand for endemic countries. by European Commission for the Control of FMD

THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF A POTENTIAL OUTBREAK OF FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE IN AUSTRIA


Introduction
An outbreak of foot-and mouth disease (FMD) in an FMD-free country with substantial export volume of livestock and livestock products, such as Austria, would likely have serious consequences on national economy. This could be mitigated by a rapid intervention to control disease spread. The objectives of this study were to assess the epidemiological and economic impact of FMD outbreaks in Austria by simulation studies, to evaluate the effect of various control strategies and to assess the resources that would be required to respond to an FMD outbreak in Austria.
Materials and methods
The multi-country FMD outbreak simulation model EuFMDiS was used to simulate a potential FMD outbreak in Austrian regions with both low and high livestock densities. The consequences on the Austrian economy were evaluated by a model, which combines the economic results from EuFMDiS with our own calculation of costs. Direct costs linked to the implementation of several control strategies under consideration, as well as the indirect costs caused by production losses and international trade restrictions were estimated. A sensitivity analysis was performed on potential influential input parameters.
Results
The results showed that there is a significant influence of the livestock density of the affected region on the dynamics of the outbreak and its economic impact. Comparison of different control strategies suggested that, from an economic point of view, implementation of additional control measures would be efficient if the epidemic started in an area with high livestock density. Analysis of the simulations demonstrated that success of control measures depends substantially on the adequate availability of resources and the speed of intervention. The vast majority of financial losses associated with an FMD outbreak could be attributed to export losses. Surveillance cost accounted for the largest share of the costs linked to the control strategies.
Discussion
The current study indicates that control of an FMD outbreak may be improved by implementation of a contingency strategy adapted to the affected region and by consideration of a range of factors evaluated in this work.


T. Marschik1, I. Kopacka2, S. Stockreiter3, F. Schmoll4, J. Hiesel5, A. Höflechner-Pöltl3, A. Käsbohrer1, B. Pinior1

1 Institute of Food Safety, Food Technology and Veterinary Public Health, Unit of Veterinary Public Health and Epidemiology, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, 1210 Vienna, Austria
2 Division for Data, Statistics and Risk Assessment, Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), Zinzendorfgasse 27/1, 8010 Graz, Austria
3 Department for Animal Health and Animal Disease Control, Federal Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs, Health and Consumer Protection, Radezkystraße 2, 1030 Vienna, Austria
4 Division for Animal Health, Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), Robert-Koch-Gasse 17, 2340 Moedling, Austria
5 Department of Veterinary Administration, Styrian Provincial Government, Friedrichgasse 9, 8010 Graz, Austria

This talk discusses how the wellbeing of veterinary services is a key element of resilient FAST crises. The talk includes a summary of relevant findings from the UK Government Vet Wellbeing Survey 2018. This report was collated following a self-selected anonymous survey across vets undertaking work for government (including both those directly employed by government, under contract, and those working for other employers who deliver contracted government work) designed to assess opinions on various aspects of wellbeing including health and safety, workplace, and mental health.

The survey was disseminated via office notices, targeted emails, online blogs and social media and received over 700 responses. Most replies originated from vets that have undertaken work for government for more than 10 years, working full time and spending the majority of their working time in the field.

The talk also introduces examples of veterinary services wellbeing impact factors and concludes that we must explore wellbeing impact factors for veterinary services and identify tools and processes that help manage and improve wellbeing within veterinary services.

A METHODOLOGY TO ESTIMATE INDIRECT COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF TADs IN SWITZERLAND

V Muñoz-Gómez1, G. Savioli2,3, B. Vosough Ahmadi4, M. Schuppers1

1 SAFOSO AG, Waldeggstrasse 1, CH-3097 Liebefeld, Switzerland
2 Veterinary Public Health Institute (VPHI), Schwarzenburgstrasse 161, CH-3097 Liebefeld, Switzerland 3 Swiss Armed Forces, Competence Centre for Veterinary Services and Army Animals, Caserne Sand CH-3000 Bern, Switzerland
4 The European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (EuFMD), Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy

Introduction
African swine fever (ASF) is a transboundary animal disease associated with high economic, trade and food security relevance. While direct costs of outbreaks of transboundary animal diseases are often well understood, little information is available about indirect and/or consequential costs of control measures. In this study, a spreadsheet model was developed to estimate the indirect consequential costs of ASF in domestic pigs and wild boars, considering different outbreak scenarios in Switzerland.

Materials and methods
First, qualitative interviews were conducted with international stakeholders to identify the sectors that may be indirectly affected by an ASF outbreak and how this impact can be characterized. Various outbreak scenarios in domestic pigs and wild boar were defined, and Swiss stakeholders were interviewed to gather data on the economic impacts in these scenarios. Finally, a cost-calculator model was used to estimate the indirect costs of an ASF outbreak in Switzerland and a decision-tree model was used to analyse various scenarios given incursion probabilities.

Results
Interviews with international stakeholders demonstrated that actors beyond the pig value chain were also indirectly affected by ASF, including, for example, the timber industry, agricultural insurance companies and feed crop producers. Important drivers for indirect costs in Switzerland were consumer demand, slaughter restrictions and biosecurity requirements.

Discussion
The findings demonstrate that the impact of an ASF outbreak will be felt well beyond the pig farms directly affected. Changes in consumer demand will impact the entire pig value chain. Furthermore, certain measures, including biosecurity measures (e.g. compulsory indoor housing) or transport restrictions for healthy pigs may lead to significant indirect consequential costs throughout the value chain. It is crucial for all stakeholders to be informed about the emergency measures that will be taken in an outbreak and their consequences to enable them to prepare for and mitigate their impacts.

COMPARING SURVEILLANCE APPROACHES TO SUPPORT REGAINING FREE STATUS AFTER A FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE OUTBREAK

Introduction

Following an FMD eradication program, surveillance will be required to demonstrate that the program has been successful. The World Animal Health Organization (OIE) provides guidelines including waiting periods and appropriate surveillance to support regaining FMD-free status. Serological surveillance is the recommended method for demonstrating freedom but is time consuming and expensive. New technologies such as real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) tests and sampling techniques such as bulk milk testing (BMT) of dairy cattle, oral swabs, and saliva collection with rope tethers in piggeries could enable surveillance to be done more efficiently.

Materials and methods

Epidemiological modelling was used to simulate FMD outbreaks, with and without emergency vaccination as part of the response, in Australia. Baseline post-outbreak surveillance approaches for unvaccinated and vaccinated animals based on the European FMD directive (EU 2003) were compared with alternate approaches in which the sampling regime, sampling approaches and/or the diagnostic tests used were varied. The approaches were compared in terms of the resources, time taken, cost, and effectiveness i.e. ability of the surveillance regime to correctly identify the infection status of herds.

Results

In the non-vaccination scenarios, the alternative approach took less time to compete and cost less, with the greatest benefits seen with larger outbreaks. In vaccinated populations, the alternate surveillance approaches significantly reduced the numbers of herds sampled, the total number of tests done and costs of the post-outbreak surveillance. There was no reduction in effectiveness using the alternate approaches, with one of the benefits being a reduction in the number of false positive herds.

Discussion

Alternate approaches to FMD surveillance based on non-invasive sampling methods and RT-qPCR tests have the potential to enable post outbreak surveillance substantiating FMD freedom to be done more quickly and less expensively than traditional approaches based on serological surveys.

MG Garner1, W Vosloo2, S. Tapsuwan1, R Bradhurst3, A Seitzinger1, A Breed4 and T Capon1

1CSIRO-Land and Water, North Road, Acton, 2601, ACT. Australia
2CSIRO-Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness, 5 Portarlington Road, 3220, Geelong, Australia
3 Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, School of BioSciences, University of
Melbourne, Parkville, 3010. Victoria, Australia
4Department of Agriculture, Water Resources and the Environment, Canberra. 2601, ACT. Australia

C. Alvarez - FMD serological blocking Elisa based on VHH for post-vaccination monitoring. by European Commission for the Control of FMD

P. Hudelet - Solutions to vaccine security - a manufacturer's perspective. by European Commission for the Control of FMD

R Garcia Fast Crises Vet Services Wellbeing by European Commission for the Control of FMD

D. Lazarus - Goat movements within the FMD protection zone of South Africa by European Commission for the Control of FMD