EuFMD

EuFMD

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EuFMD episodes

  • B. Vidondo - Early warning of infectious disease outbreaks on cattle-transport networks
    EARLY WARNING OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE OUTBREAKS ON CATTLE-TRANSPORT NETWORKS

    Introduction

    Surveillance of infectious diseases in livestock is traditionally carried out at the farms, which are the typical units of epidemiological investigations and interventions. In Central and Western Europe, high-quality, long-term time series of animal transports have become available and this opens the possibility to new approaches like sentinel
    surveillance. By comparing a sentinel surveillance scheme based on markets to one based on farms, the primary aim of this paper is to identify the smallest set of sentinel holdings that would reliably and timely detect emergent disease outbreaks in Swiss cattle.

    Materials and methods

    Using a data-driven approach, we simulate the spread of infectious diseases according to the reported or available daily cattle transport data in Switzerland over a four year period.

    Results

    Investigating the efficiency of surveillance at either market or farm level, we find that the most efficient early warning surveillance system [the smallest set of sentinels that timely and reliably detect outbreaks (small outbreaks at detection, short detection delays)] would be based on the former, rather than the latter. We show that a detection probability of 86% can be achieved by monitoring all 137 markets in the network. Additional 250 farm sentinels, selected according to their risk, need to be placed under surveillance so that the probability of first hitting one of these farm sentinels is at least as high as the probability of first hitting a market. Combining markets and 1000 farms with highest risk of infection, these two levels together will lead to a detection probability of 99%.

    Discussion

    We conclude that the design of animal surveillance systems greatly benefits from the use of the existing abundant and detailed animal transport data especially for highly dynamic cattle transport networks. Sentinel surveillance approaches can be tailored to complement existing farm risk-based and syndromic surveillance approaches.

    B. Vidondo5,
    F. Schirdewahn1, H. H. K. Lentz2, V. Colizza3, A. Koher1,
    P. Hövel1,4,

    1 Institut für Theoretische Physik, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
    2 Institute of Epidemiology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Greifswald - Insel Riems,
    Germany
    3 Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis
    d'épidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France
    4 School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
    5 Veterinary Public Health Institute, University of Bern, Bern-Liebefeld, Switzerland

    EuFMD Open session
    www.eufmdvirtual.com
    2 min
  • R. Aguanno - Participatory mapping of animal mobility patterns
    PARTICIPATORY MAPPING OF ANIMAL MOBILITY PATTERNS USING FAO’S EPIDEMIOLOGY VALUE CHAIN PLATFORM

    Introduction

    Studies relating to animal movement patterns and are often conducted by academic authors, with dissemination of findings limited to grey literature and scientific journals. Consequently, objectives and outcomes may not incorporate the priorities of surveillance system actors or communicate results to stakeholders. The Food and Agriculture Organisations has developed a digital and interactive medium to facilitate and empower capacity building efforts related to market profiling and animal movement under its Epidemiology Value Chain (EVC) Platform, enabling users to maintain a live, online, and dynamic tool that can store, analyse, and display a magnitude of different data.

    Materials and methods

    ‘Open-source’ electronic collection systems (e.g.EpiCollect5) allow national veterinary services to enter value chain locations and movement patterns. Data is continuously collected through interviews, expert opinion, or retrospectively via the collation of movement permits. Various ‘plug-in’ applications allow for the visualisation of data via maps, statistics, or graphs. These are created in conjunction with national epidemiology units to ensure relevance for selecting and planning intervention options. Lastly, the application allows for dissemination of data to engage key stakeholders.

    Results

    Over 1000 bird markets and network connections were identified, profiled, and analysed across Viet Nam, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, and Mozambique. Data collection in Ghana continues in conjunction with the national epidemiology unit, including expansion to livestock markets and other value chain nodes.

    Discussion

    The mapping of epidemiological significant locations such as markets, abattoirs, and border points along with seasonal and quantified animal movement flows can be utilised by veterinary services to plan and run prevention and control interventions. The tool can rapidly increase country capacities to identify high risk locations, i.e. those in need of urgent biosecurity improvements or those that need to be targeted through surveillance. Furthermore, data can be updated in real-time to maintain the cost efficiency and effectiveness of interventions.

    R. Aguanno1,
    2, S. Von Dobschuetz1, S. Khomenko1, A. Tripodi1, W. Kalpravidh1, K. Sumption1
    1Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, Roma, Italia, 00153
    2 Royal Veterinary College, University College London, 4 Royal College St, London, United Kingdom, NW1 0TU

    EuFMD Open Session
    www.eufmdvirtual.com
    5 min

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